Ford does NOT pardon Nixon

[TX Conservative Dem]

On September 8, 1974, President Gerald Ford announced in an address to the nation that he will not pardon former President Richard M. Nixon for Nixon's involvement in the Watergate Scandal. The announcement is received by many as relief, while Nixon's supporters are furious and pissed off.

Ford's approval ratings remain steady during the 1974 midterms. By not pardoning Nixon, Ford would hope there wouldn't be any consequences for him politically in 1976 when he's expected to seek a 1st full 4-year term in his own right.

[Fuzzy Bear]

People who think Ford made a bad political move by pardoning Nixon haven’t thought the issue through enough.  Had Ford NOT pardoned Nixon, there would have been a continuing Special Prosecutor investigation of Nixon’s conduct that would have dominated the headlines.  If Jaworski had gone soft on Nixon, there would have been discussion of his status as a 1972 Democrat for Nixon and a demand for his replacement.  If Nixon had been indicted, his trial would have been dragged out, and Democrats would have made it the biggest thing since Nuremberg.  Plus, there would have been even more Congressional investigations going who knows where on the subject. 

None of this would have augured well for the GOP.  The 1974 trouncing of the GOP in Congressional elections was inevitable, but it could have been worse.  The GOP lost only 3 Senate seats; they could have lost several more (the open seat in NV, Dole in KS, Young in ND, Bellmon in OK, Packwood in OR).  They could have lost more Governors (Rhodes in OH, Edwards in SC, Milliken in MI, Ray in IA,).  They could have lost more House seats (Hammerschmidt in AR, Kelly in FL, Wampler in VA, Smith in NE-3, Pressler in SD-1 (who won in an upset), Buchanan in AL, Taylor in MO).  Just imagine how these close races would have been impacted if those candidates had to run with details of the Nixon Investigation or Nixon’s Criminal Trial blaring across the airwaves.

Where it REALLY would have gotten worse, however, was in 1976.  If the Nixon business had been dragged out over time, the Democrats would have, in the 1976 election, carried CT, NJ, IL, MI, CA, IA, and WA for sure, in addition to what they did carry.  People forget that in 1976 the Democrats won because they had an amorphous Southern Democrat leading their ticket who was able to closely carry 10 of 11 Southern states, to eke out 296 EV (hardly a blowout).  This was an artificial victory, and the Southern coalitions that elected Carter in 1976 could not (and did not) hold in 1980.  What DID hold was Richard Nixon’s “New Majority” in NJ, CT, MI, IA, IL, CA, WA, and OR.  These states continued to vote Republican (except for WA and OR) through 1988.  In addition, PA and OH returned to the GOP fold in 1980.  What Ford was able to do was preserve Nixon’s New Majority to where it reasserted itself in 1980 when folks tired of Carter.  It was not until 1992 when this New Majority fell apart, and not until 2000 when realignment was (for the most part) cemented in.

Ford’s pardon of Nixon saved the GOP from another 50 years of minority status.  This wasn’t clear at the time, but it is clear to me from hindsight.

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, in a drawn out Nixon trial scenario, it's easy to see the Democrats maintaining the benefit of the doubt from swing voters through the 1980's.  Republicans could easily have had to wait for 2008 to get a conservative realignment.

[TX Conservative Dem]

What does that do for Reagan's political future ?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Ford does not pardon Nixon? Hmmm...

Once incarcerated, Nixon would rise up to led a feared prison gang "The Plumbers' Brotherhood", after making his bones by wasting the Irish Gang boss, John "No Relation", Kennedy in a shower.

Nixon would famously flip on the drug issue, becoming a head of the largest prison drug tracking operation in the United States.

He'd continue to rule with an iron fist until 1988, when he would be wasted by an up-and-coming member of the prison community Marvin "Mean Marv" Mandel, a former Governor of Maryland, jailed for mail fraud and racketeering. After this, Mandel would take over Nixon' drug business as leader of the Jewish Brotherhood.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Ford does not pardon Nixon? Hmmm...

Once incarcerated, Nixon would rise up to led a feared prison gang "The Plumbers' Brotherhood", after making his bones by wasting the Irish Gang boss, John "No Relation", Kennedy in a shower.

Nixon would famously flip on the drug issue, becoming a head of the largest prison drug tracking operation in the United States.

He'd continue to rule with an iron fist until 1988, when he would be wasted by an up-and-coming member of the prison community Marvin "Mean Marv" Mandel, a former Governor of Maryland, jailed for mail fraud and racketeering. After this, Mandel would take over Nixon' drug business as leader of the Jewish Brotherhood.

Mandela leads the Jewish brotherhood until Texas Rep. Ron Paul is imprisoned in 2012 by the RNC for being too awesome and gains the power of magnetism. He then offs Mandel and forms the Brotherhood of Libertarian Mutants as Magneto.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Ford does not pardon Nixon? Hmmm...

Once incarcerated, Nixon would rise up to led a feared prison gang "The Plumbers' Brotherhood", after making his bones by wasting the Irish Gang boss, John "No Relation", Kennedy in a shower.

Nixon would famously flip on the drug issue, becoming a head of the largest prison drug tracking operation in the United States.

He'd continue to rule with an iron fist until 1988, when he would be wasted by an up-and-coming member of the prison community Marvin "Mean Marv" Mandel, a former Governor of Maryland, jailed for mail fraud and racketeering. After this, Mandel would take over Nixon' drug business as leader of the Jewish Brotherhood.

Mandela leads the Jewish brotherhood until Texas Rep. Ron Paul is imprisoned in 2012 by the RNC for being too awesome and gains the power of magnetism. He then offs Mandel and forms the Brotherhood of Libertarian Mutants as Magneto.

No. Let's keep it realistic.

[NHLiberal]

What does that do for Reagan's political future ?

Ends it (he never advances past Governor of California and perhaps even loses reelection there)

[Goldwater]

What does that do for Reagan's political future ?

Ends it (he never advances past Governor of California and perhaps even loses reelection there)

How does Ford not pardoning Nixon in 1974 prevent Reagan from being reelected in 1970?

[NHLiberal]

What does that do for Reagan's political future ?

Ends it (he never advances past Governor of California and perhaps even loses reelection there)

How does Ford not pardoning Nixon in 1974 prevent Reagan from being reelected in 1970?

I meant in 1976 assuming he runs for reelection instead of running for President

[hcallega]

This scenario probably helps Reagan, as it causes enough Republicans to bolt from the current Administration and support the reform-minded Reagan. Also, if Hammerschmidt loses in Arkansas, we get Congressman Bill Clinton!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

What does that do for Reagan's political future ?

Ends it (he never advances past Governor of California and perhaps even loses reelection there)

How does Ford not pardoning Nixon in 1974 prevent Reagan from being reelected in 1970?

I meant in 1976 assuming he runs for reelection instead of running for President

The year would've been 1974, not 1976, and I don't see anything changing Reagan's mind on retiring from the Governorship. I'd have to assume the decision not to run for another term was already set in motion and had little to nothing to do with Nixon.

[Fuzzy Bear]

What does that do for Reagan's political future ?

Ends it (he never advances past Governor of California and perhaps even loses reelection there)

How does Ford not pardoning Nixon in 1974 prevent Reagan from being reelected in 1970?

I meant in 1976 assuming he runs for reelection instead of running for President

The year would've been 1974, not 1976, and I don't see anything changing Reagan's mind on retiring from the Governorship. I'd have to assume the decision not to run for another term was already set in motion and had little to nothing to do with Nixon.

Reagan would likely not have been re-elected had he sought a 3rd term in 1974.  Jesse Unruh had cut Reagan's victory margin in half in 1970, and it was CONSERVATIVE Republicans that got most of the heat for Nixon.  One reason Jerry Brown won by only 51-49 in 1974 was that his opponent, Houston Flournoy, was considered a liberal Republican, and Brown had taken some conservative stances on issues; it shook up the electorate a bit.