Who will win in Kansas?

[user12345]

Who will take the governors mansion this November?

[Flake]

I really think Davis will win in the end, but the race should tighten up.

[illegaloperation]

Davis will wins.

Brownback has devastated the state.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Brownback because he's got 4 statewide election victories in his belt and the advantage of having served 14 years in the United States Senate.

[Miles]

Kinda the Republicans' version of IL. I'd like to see Davis win, but I feel like the partisan lean of Kansas saves Brownback.

[illegaloperation]

I called my very conservative ex-girlfriend who I dated back in high school who now live in Kansas.

I asked her who should would vote for and she said Davis. My jaw dropped.

[RogueBeaver]

What Miles said. May require Reid/McConnell-esque nuclear warfare.

[Orser67]

I have to imagine that Brownback pulls it out. But defeating him would be an awesome message to every Republican governor that going hard right doesn't always work.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A large victory by Pat Roberts probably means a narrow victory by Sam Brownback due to coattails. But if Brownback has a major mistake or Roberts wins much narrower than expected - say, by under 10 points, Davis might just pull off a HUGE upset, but the margin of victory would be very small, only a point, point and a half, two points at the very most.

[sg0508]

Brownback will have two major advantages:

1) The "coming home" effect.  If Davis is up by 5 pts or less and isn't above 47% (without any major 3rd party candidate on the ballot), Brownback will get most of the remaining vote, which could put him over the top.

2) Overall, the midterms will favor the GOP.  Swing voters may simply vote GOP tickets due to anti-Obama sentiment if for no other reason.  That could add 3-5 pts to Brownback's total, which could be enough.

[tmthforu94]

Once that ads start running I think Brownback will win, but it will be much closer than it should be.

[Never]

Brownback will probably win in a needlessly close victory. The margin will probably be in the low single digits.

[Maxwell]

I think Davis will win. Partisanship won't save Brownback like it won't save Quinn this time.

[IceSpear]

Narrowly Brownback.

[LeBron]

Brownback will have two major advantages:

1) The "coming home" effect.  If Davis is up by 5 pts or less and isn't above 47% (without any major 3rd party candidate on the ballot), Brownback will get most of the remaining vote, which could put him over the top.

2) Overall, the midterms will favor the GOP.  Swing voters may simply vote GOP tickets due to anti-Obama sentiment if for no other reason.  That could add 3-5 pts to Brownback's total, which could be enough.

To Brownback's demise, there is a Libertarian ticket on the ballot who almost assuredly a good handful of anti-Brownback Republicans will vote for.

Plus, unfortunately for Brownback, Richard Durbin isn't Pat Roberts and Roberts is too unpopular himself to help Brownback out even in the slightest especially when he's facing his own residency and primary election problems.

I think Davis will narrowly win this. Kansas is one of very few states losing jobs as well as one of the most elastic and if Davis manages to connect Brownback to that more than Brownback can connect it to Obama, he'll have a realistic shot. Awesome enough, Davis does have the money to compete with Brownback on ad buys, to.

[Fuzzy Bear]

My first inclination was to say that Brownback would ride this out.  But now, having looked at it, I believe that he has angered voters at a surprisingly deep level, way beyond Dole Republicans viewing Bush 41 as wimpy.

Kansas still has moderate Republicans who will vote for a Democrat at the state level.  Some of them have become Democrats, but not all.  The election is All About Brownback, and Kansans have come to deeply dislike him.   Some real dirt would have to come out about the Democrat for Brownback to pull this out.

[tmthforu94]

Kansas is one of very few states losing jobs

That's not true. Job growth overall isn't as high due to public sector cuts, but our private sector numbers are the second strongest in the region and we're still at a net gain this year.

[NHLiberal]

I think Davis will win. Partisanship won't save Brownback like it won't save Quinn this time.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Brownback

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Davis can beat the odds and win this darkhorse race.

[windjammer]

Where is the Kansas Megathread???

[nolesfan2011]

as of right now, if he doesn't stumble, I say Davis by , Brownback is brutally unpopular and his numbers aren't improving, Kansas has elected a Dem gov recently enough (Sebelius) and can do so again.

[Suburbia]

I see Davis narrowly winning, unless Brownback does well in the last couple of weeks. If Davis wins and is successful, he should be a good presidential contender in the 2020's as a red state Democrat.

[badgate]

Holy crap have you guys seen Davis' campaign video? It's fantastic. http://davisforkansas.com/sections/page/restore-kansas

[Free Bird]

It's Kansas in a midterm. Do the math.