Ontario redistribution - my 170 seat proposal

[lilTommy]

Here is a summary of the York South / High Park-Swansea change:
Thanks, Linus.

Whenever someone makes a proposal, I will assess it, and make the change if I feel it is reasonable.

First proposed change:

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Population of affected areas shown on the map. Red = original proposal; purple = new proposed boundaries.

York South:
Original population: 73,755
New population: 73,445

High Park-Swansea
Original population: 74,149
New population: 74,459

The population of both ridings do not change much in terms of population, and remain well within the 10% average variance. The proposed change makes for a more sensible boundary. The change is approved by the boundary commission. No names need to change for either riding.

Politically speaking, this makes the new riding less NDP and possibly moves High Park-Swansea to the Liberals (this is assuming the NDP won it, which i'm not sure, the NDP did well in the junction, east of Runnymede North of Bloor and East of Parkside. North of the trackswhich is now being cut off were NDP polls).

Can you now, based on off the last election, indicate which party would have won which seats?

OK, my recommendation for change: what would a N-S alignment look like for Toronto's St.Andrew-St.Patrick and Fort York ridings? basically following an older riding map design pre-85 style and looking more like the municipal wards. (this might be much more work then i think so its ok if its denied)
BTW... I really think this is some amazing work Hatman!

[lilTommy]

Sorry but...

Proposal number #3 is rejected

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A north south split could only be done on Spadina, which I don't think has much historical precedent. Fort York did not exist before 1985, and the western boundary of St. Andrew-St. Patrick was I believe was Bathurst, which is the present municipal ward boundary. The area west of the ward boundary (Fort York-Niagara ?) has a population of 33,132 which is -56.2% under the quotient. The remaining territory has a population of 120,096, which is 58.9% over the quotient.

If you would like to change the boundary to something else, let me know - but there has to be a community of interest argument.  Having a better north-south split on the lakefront is possible, but might require shifting neighbouring ridings as well.

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Too much work to do them all, but if you have any requests, I can look into it. High Park-Swansea definitely went Liberal. Looks like Parkdale probably went NDP.

Thanks! I honestly have no idea how i would do a N-S split, and it would likely re-draw all of TO south of Midtown to accommodate it... curious as to how it would look.
Here's a though: move the western boundary of St. George-St. David to Bay, the Northern boundary will be Dupont, St.Andrew-St.Patrick western boundary would be Bathurst, the new Fort York-Trinity western boundary with Parkdale would shift to Ossington; This keeps Chinatown and Kensington in one riding. This bods back to the maps from the 60-70's I believe. But i think this makes Fort York-Trinity under quota?

OK; Just Toronto then party winners

[lilTommy]

Thanks! I honestly have no idea how i would do a N-S split, and it would likely re-draw all of TO south of Midtown to accommodate it... curious as to how it would look.
Here's a though: move the western boundary of St. George-St. David to Bay, the Northern boundary will be Dupont, St.Andrew-St.Patrick western boundary would be Bathurst, the new Fort York-Trinity western boundary with Parkdale would shift to Ossington; This keeps Chinatown and Kensington in one riding. This bods back to the maps from the 60-70's I believe. But i think this makes Fort York-Trinity under quota?

OK; Just Toronto then party winners

I'm having trouble following here.

I can move St. George-St. David's western boundary to Bay Street (or Yonge if SG-SD is too large). That would increase the riding's population to 111,827 though. Dupont ends at Avenue Road, and in any event moving the boundary northward would only make the riding even more over quota.

For St. Andrew-St. Patrick, moving the eastern border to Bay Street removed 29,447 people from the riding. Moving the western boundary east to Bathurst would lose 9,734 more people, leaving us with just 37,743 people.

Moving the northwestern boundary of Fort York to Ossington (Ossington ends and Queen, so the southwestern boundary remains at Dovercourt / Atlantic Ave.) adds 1,774 people to Fort York from Parkdale. This brings Parkdale down to 73,263 and Fort York up to 78,078. Both within the quotient. However, this change doesn't affect the Dundas St. boundary between Fort York and St. Andrew-St. Patrick which remains Dundas St, separating Kensington Market and Chinatown. Any reason why those communities need to be together?

As for riding winners, I can see what I can do...

Oh sorry, this would be my attempt at doing N_S orientation. So SA-SP would Have an eastern boundary of Bay(or Yonge if SG-SD is too large), Northern of Dupont to Avenue, then davenport follow to Bloor, Southern of the waterfront and Western as Bathurst?
Trinity-Fort York would be Eastern border Bathurst, Northern would be Dupont, Western boundary being Ossington (then as you have it) this is very similar to the wards.

[lilTommy]

St. George-St. David with a western boundary of Yonge Street would still be too large, with a population of 91,011.

wow, SG-SD is dense!, ok keep it as is....

[lilTommy]

With some help from Hatman, I managed to draw out his TO ridings on the old Federal 2011 poll map. A much better result for the NDP had the city voted the way it had in 2011, 11 or 12 seats would have gone NDP

using http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/ to see provincial party winner based on 2014 (polls are different) but the NDP would have won 3 maybe 4 - Riverdale, Parkdale, York East and maybe Scarborough Malvern. Yorkview is no longer a target as the NDPs best polling is now in Downsview.

[lilTommy]

Here it is on the provincial map:



Looks like the NDP would've won 3 seats, the Liberals would win the rest. Not sure about Scarborough-Malvern, though- but I speculate that it went Liberal.

Looks like Scarborough-Malvern would have been close, but I think your right, looks Liberal; Parkdale has less NDP strength then I thought. York Mills is pretty polarized as mentioned above, but would be one of the PC targets/best shots at a seat

If Yorkview and Downsview were re-drawn with an East-West alignment say along Sheppard, the Northern riding would be a much more favorable to the NDP... but were not gerrymandering

[lilTommy]

Why can't Ontario have its own boundaries?

Tories wont let us have nice things

I'm actually OK with North having special treatment in riding sizes being smaller (population wise) these are huge riding's, with the exception of Sudbury and SSM, and being able to represent them is already very tasking with the sheer size and distance between many communities. The North is becoming very important economically with the Ring of fire and the region needs to be represented adequately... plus more ridings in the North theoretically help the NDP Lets bring back the 1995 riding's for the North!! lol
At least they are increasing the size based on southern ontario growth, they could have just left things as they were which would be even worse