Who will win in 2016?

[Senator Cris]

Who will win in 2016?

[CapoteMonster]

The Democrats won't run any nut jobs like Cruz or Santorum so I'll hedge my bets on the Democrat candidate.

[Free Bird]

Republican. I see the Dems stuffed the poll though based on ONE candidate.

[NHLiberal]

Republican. I see the Dems stuffed the poll though based on ONE candidate.

One candidate who is very likely to run and a virtual lock to win the nomination

[Never]

Right now, I think the Democrats are most likely to win in 2016, because of one candidate in particular.

[IceSpear]

Right now, I think the Democrats are most likely to win in 2016, because of one candidate in particular.

[Mr. Illini]

It's in the Dems favor right now, no question about it. Most Republicans would concur.

[Free Bird]

A generic D candidate will beat a generic R candidate.  Only the fringe barfbag/Never types would disagree with this assertion.  The electoral college is vastly in favor of the Democrats.  Many of the swing states are trending Democrat (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia) and what's even worse for Republicans is that several large states that are absolutely necessary for them to achieve 270 electoral votes are not locks (Florida, North Carolina... possibly even Georgia).

Thus for a Republican to win, they have to:

A) Win all of their base states, every single one.
B) Win all of the lean R states (like NC, FL - if it's even a lean R state anymore)
C) Win most of the swing states
D) By winning C, they must win at least a few of the states that are trending away from them (NV, CO, VA)

Thus, Democrats can likely stop them by either winning all of D, half of C, or any of B... or some combination of the three.

In other words, Republicans need to run a near perfect game while Democrats don't... unless there is some kind of huge national swing, which seems unlikely. 

That's what I voted on. Not some sacred cow.

[Free Bird]

Republican. I see the Dems stuffed the poll though based on ONE candidate.

One candidate who is very likely to run and a virtual lock to win the nomination

Nomination if she does? Yes, but she has given an equal amount of signs she is discouraged to the idea. Grandchild, book flopping, age, recent defaming, etc.

[Maxwell]

The democrats are certainly more likely, but the GOP (or the Dems through active failure, which may be more likely) could turn it around.

[© tweed]

I'd say the Dems are a 3/2-ish favorite right now.  the GOP do have some medium-term demographic issues (ie, losing 3 of 4 Hispanics is very hard to overcome) and don't appear to be on their way towards solving them.

Rubio would be their best shot.  Obama's approvals could be low enough to be a big drag.  barring all that it'd be hard to break 47-48%, maybe 48.5% against a candidate with high negatives like Biden or Hillary.  

[Fuzzy Bear]

The GOP has lost control of their nomination process.  You have to concur with too many nut jobs to be nominated.  Once you do, you can't just walk it back.

Hillary is a safe candidate who will be easily nominated and who won't say anything THAT terrible.  Which Republican can we say this about?

[BlueSwan]

If Hillary runs, she is the favourite.

If she doesn't run, the GOP candidate would be the default slight favourite, unless they nominate a nutter (which is not all that unlikely).

Since Hillary is very likely to run, that would make the dems favourites at this point in time.

[Panhandle Progressive]

A generic D candidate will beat a generic R candidate.  Only the fringe barfbag/Never types would disagree with this assertion.  The electoral college is vastly in favor of the Democrats.  Many of the swing states are trending Democrat (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia) and what's even worse for Republicans is that several large states that are absolutely necessary for them to achieve 270 electoral votes are not locks (Florida, North Carolina... possibly even Georgia).

Thus for a Republican to win, they have to:

A) Win all of their base states, every single one.
B) Win all of the lean R states (like NC, FL - if it's even a lean R state anymore)
C) Win most of the swing states
D) By winning C, they must win at least a few of the states that are trending away from them (NV, CO, VA)

Thus, Democrats can likely stop them by either winning all of D, half of C, or any of B... or some combination of the three.

In other words, Republicans need to run a near perfect game while Democrats don't... unless there is some kind of huge national swing, which seems unlikely.  

BINGO!