Members of Congress most likely to switch parties

[Orser67]

I'm curious which members of Congress people think are most likely to switch parties. To be clear, I don't think any one Congressman or Senator is likely to switch parties, but I don't think it's implausible that we could see some party switching at some point.

I think Joe Manchin and Angus King (an independent caucusing with the Dems) in the Senate are obvious candidates (esp if the GOP takes the Senate in 2014); both have been talked about a fair amount, and I don't see the point in continuing a discussion on them.

[Lincoln Republican]

What about Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders joining the Democrats?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Manchin votes with the Democrats 73% of the time and would gain nothing from changing parties.  I don't understand all this talk about him switching.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I could see a really moderate Republican joining the Democrats, but I don't think it is very likely at all and no names come to mind. It's been five years since Parker Griffith joined (and then left) the GOP.

[Orser67]

Just to comment generally, there's a decent Wiki article on the subject (linked below) which posits three reasons for why members of Congress switch parties. 1)The politician feels like he's totally out of step with his party (Jim Jeffords is a good example), 2)the politician wishes to remain in the majority (several Democrats did this after the 1994 elections), and 3)the politician is seeking to avoid a defeat in a primary (Arlen Specter is a recent example), or in a general election (Parker Griffith).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_switching_in_the_United_States#Notable_party_switchers

[Orser67]

I could see a really moderate Republican joining the Democrats, but I don't think it is very likely at all and no names come to mind. It's been five years since Parker Griffith joined (and then left) the GOP.

Calling it unlikely is probably an understatement, but my dream scenario would be for centrists like Charlie Dent, Hanna, LoBiondo, Meehan, et. al to give up on the Republican Party.

[Indy Texas]

Just to comment generally, there's a decent Wiki article on the subject (linked below) which posits three reasons for why members of Congress switch parties. 1)The politician feels like he's totally out of step with his party (Jim Jeffords is a good example), 2)the politician wishes to remain in the majority (several Democrats did this after the 1994 elections), and 3)the politician is seeking to avoid a defeat in a primary (Arlen Specter is a recent example), or in a general election (Parker Griffith).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_switching_in_the_United_States#Notable_party_switchers

Re 1: The parties are so polarized at this point that there really isn't anyone in either party who is close enough to the center that they'd be "out of step" with the party as a whole.

Re 2: 1994 represented a long-term realignment. The Democrats who switched after that knew that things were going to only get worse for their party in the states and districts they represented. Whatever happens in 2014 isn't going to be a major realignment for any party or region.

Re 3: In part because of (1), this is less of an issue. The sort of Republican who is getting primaried from the right these days isn't an Arlen Specter moderate and certainly isn't a Jacob Javits liberal. They're just a far-right conservative who refuses to be obstructionist and know-nothing. Switching to the Democratic Party to avoid a Tea Party challenger is completely outside the realm of possibility for them. And even the most Blue Dog of Democrats wouldn't last five minutes in today's GOP.

[Orser67]

Re 1: The parties are so polarized at this point that there really isn't anyone in either party who is close enough to the center that they'd be "out of step" with the party as a whole.

Responding to points 1 and 3, I think you have a point but I don't fully agree. Yes the parties are much more sorted, making party switching less of a natural ideological move. However, both parties still have centrist wings, and these centrist politicians aren't totally out-of-place in either party. For example, from an ideological perspective, I don't think Susan Collins is really that much more conservative than Mark Pryor. We've also seen party switchers move to the right/left after switching (e.g. Specter), and I would expect the next party-switcher to at least somewhat change their voting behavior.

Responding to point 2, I actually wasn't just talking about 2014, but the near future as well. Not that I would bet on it, but 2016 and 2020 could be realigning elections.

[SWE]

Angus King is the only one within the realm of possibility. The idea that Manchin would ever become a republican is absurd.

[Never]

Manchin votes with the Democrats 73% of the time and would gain nothing from changing parties.  I don't understand all this talk about him switching.

According to the New York Times, former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell voted with the Democrats 78% of the time before switching to the Republicans in 1995.

West Virginia does seem like it is moving to the right at the state level much later than the rest of the non-coastal South, so Manchin becoming a Republican could be a benefit in regard to being more in tune with his state.

While Manchin becoming a Republican doesn't seem highly likely, it isn't necessarily out of the question, especially if the GOP wins the Senate after the midterm elections.

[Badger]

Manchin votes with the Democrats 73% of the time and would gain nothing from changing parties.  I don't understand all this talk about him switching.

According to the New York Times, former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell voted with the Democrats 78% of the time before switching to the Republicans in 1995.

West Virginia does seem like it is moving to the right at the state level much later than the rest of the non-coastal South, so Manchin becoming a Republican could be a benefit in regard to being more in tune with his state.

While Manchin becoming a Republican doesn't seem highly likely, it isn't necessarily out of the question, especially if the GOP wins the Senate after the midterm elections.

Yeah. Campbell's switch was a head scratcher.

[Never]

Manchin votes with the Democrats 73% of the time and would gain nothing from changing parties.  I don't understand all this talk about him switching.

According to the New York Times, former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell voted with the Democrats 78% of the time before switching to the Republicans in 1995.

West Virginia does seem like it is moving to the right at the state level much later than the rest of the non-coastal South, so Manchin becoming a Republican could be a benefit in regard to being more in tune with his state.

While Manchin becoming a Republican doesn't seem highly likely, it isn't necessarily out of the question, especially if the GOP wins the Senate after the midterm elections.

Yeah. Campbell's switch was a head scratcher.

Generally, it would seem that a party switch in the Senate would catch people off guard.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Manchin votes with the Democrats 73% of the time and would gain nothing from changing parties.  I don't understand all this talk about him switching.

According to the New York Times, former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell voted with the Democrats 78% of the time before switching to the Republicans in 1995.

West Virginia does seem like it is moving to the right at the state level much later than the rest of the non-coastal South, so Manchin becoming a Republican could be a benefit in regard to being more in tune with his state.

While Manchin becoming a Republican doesn't seem highly likely, it isn't necessarily out of the question, especially if the GOP wins the Senate after the midterm elections.

Yeah. Campbell's switch was a head scratcher.

Generally, it would seem that a party switch in the Senate would catch people off guard.

I don't think Shelby was so surprising.

[Never]

Manchin votes with the Democrats 73% of the time and would gain nothing from changing parties.  I don't understand all this talk about him switching.

According to the New York Times, former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell voted with the Democrats 78% of the time before switching to the Republicans in 1995.

West Virginia does seem like it is moving to the right at the state level much later than the rest of the non-coastal South, so Manchin becoming a Republican could be a benefit in regard to being more in tune with his state.

While Manchin becoming a Republican doesn't seem highly likely, it isn't necessarily out of the question, especially if the GOP wins the Senate after the midterm elections.

Yeah. Campbell's switch was a head scratcher.

Generally, it would seem that a party switch in the Senate would catch people off guard.

I don't think Shelby was so surprising.

True, but there doesn't seem to be an analogue to pre-Republican Shelby in the Senate as of 2014.

[Badger]

Manchin votes with the Democrats 73% of the time and would gain nothing from changing parties.  I don't understand all this talk about him switching.

According to the New York Times, former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell voted with the Democrats 78% of the time before switching to the Republicans in 1995.

West Virginia does seem like it is moving to the right at the state level much later than the rest of the non-coastal South, so Manchin becoming a Republican could be a benefit in regard to being more in tune with his state.

While Manchin becoming a Republican doesn't seem highly likely, it isn't necessarily out of the question, especially if the GOP wins the Senate after the midterm elections.

Yeah. Campbell's switch was a head scratcher.

Generally, it would seem that a party switch in the Senate would catch people off guard.

I don't think Shelby was so surprising.

True, but there doesn't seem to be an analogue to pre-Republican Shelby in the Senate as of 2014.

How about in the House?

[Never]

Manchin votes with the Democrats 73% of the time and would gain nothing from changing parties.  I don't understand all this talk about him switching.

According to the New York Times, former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell voted with the Democrats 78% of the time before switching to the Republicans in 1995.

West Virginia does seem like it is moving to the right at the state level much later than the rest of the non-coastal South, so Manchin becoming a Republican could be a benefit in regard to being more in tune with his state.

While Manchin becoming a Republican doesn't seem highly likely, it isn't necessarily out of the question, especially if the GOP wins the Senate after the midterm elections.

Yeah. Campbell's switch was a head scratcher.

Generally, it would seem that a party switch in the Senate would catch people off guard.

I don't think Shelby was so surprising.

True, but there doesn't seem to be an analogue to pre-Republican Shelby in the Senate as of 2014.

How about in the House?

Maybe, just maybe Blue Dog Democrat Dan Lipinski (IL-03). He opposes abortion, opposes same-sex marriage, voted against the final version of Obamacare, is against in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants, and opposes increases in immigration visas. Still, he represents a very Democratic district, and other Blue Dogs who are more conservative than him seem unlikely to switch parties. I suspect that polarization in Congress has reached a level making it unlikely we will see many party identification shifts.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Almost any center-right/neocon Republican.

[Orser67]

Here are the people I think are most likely:

Murkowski, Collins, Pryor, Landrieu, Manchin, King

Nick Rahall, John Barrow, Patrick Murphy (FL), David Valadao

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Almost any center-right/neocon Republican.

Dear Lord no what on God's green Earth are you talking about that is not how the world WORKS

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Manchin votes with the Democrats 73% of the time and would gain nothing from changing parties.  I don't understand all this talk about him switching.

According to the New York Times, former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell voted with the Democrats 78% of the time before switching to the Republicans in 1995.

West Virginia does seem like it is moving to the right at the state level much later than the rest of the non-coastal South, so Manchin becoming a Republican could be a benefit in regard to being more in tune with his state.

While Manchin becoming a Republican doesn't seem highly likely, it isn't necessarily out of the question, especially if the GOP wins the Senate after the midterm elections.

Supposedly, Campbell's switch came as the result of intra-party conflict within the CODP.  Also, he only got nominated in the first place because the party's "left wing" was split, allowing him to win by a plurality.

What's strange is that Campbell focused most of his Senate terms on one issue: Native Americans.  How often he voted with the GOP on other issues post-switch, I can't say, but there's no reason Manchin would switch to the Republicans, especially with the Tea Party having the influence it does.  Manchin is no Richard Shelby.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Almost any center-right/neocon Republican.

Dear Lord no what on God's green Earth are you talking about that is not how the world WORKS

The ideological purity is driving them out of the GOP in droves. 
"Derp neocons and moderates are RINOs and socialists who want to destroy the Constitution!" 
That's the kind of rhetoric that drives folks out of our party.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Almost any center-right/neocon Republican.

Dear Lord no what on God's green Earth are you talking about that is not how the world WORKS

The ideological purity is driving them out of the GOP in droves. 
"Derp neocons and moderates are RINOs and socialists who want to destroy the Constitution!" 
That's the kind of rhetoric that drives folks out of our party.

Prominent 'neocons and moderates' who have been driven out of the party:

• Jim Jeffords (moderate, not a neocon, and this had a lot to do with constituency issues involving dairy farming; the Senate GOP actually had something of a history of bending over backwards for him--this was also during the period of neocon ascendancy within the party anyway)
• Lincoln Chafee (moderate, not a neocon)
• Wendy Davis (I doubt you want to claim her)
• Arlen Specter (moderate, does he count as a neocon? For some reason I never had a firm grasp of his positions on defense and foreign policy)
• Lisa Murkowski sort of but not really.

And a bunch of people who either did not hold political office yet (Patrick Murphy) or did not hold political office any more (Arne Carlson).

I will concede that quite a few 'neocons and moderates' have been driven out of Congress by ideological purity trolls, but that's not really the same thing, pernicious as it is.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Almost any center-right/neocon Republican.

Dear Lord no what on God's green Earth are you talking about that is not how the world WORKS

The ideological purity is driving them out of the GOP in droves. 
"Derp neocons and moderates are RINOs and socialists who want to destroy the Constitution!" 
That's the kind of rhetoric that drives folks out of our party.

Prominent 'neocons and moderates' who have been driven out of the party:

• Jim Jeffords (moderate, not a neocon, and this had a lot to do with constituency issues involving dairy farming; the Senate GOP actually had something of a history of bending over backwards for him--this was also during the period of neocon ascendancy within the party anyway)
• Lincoln Chafee (moderate, not a neocon)
• Wendy Davis (I doubt you want to claim her)
• Arlen Specter (moderate, does he count as a neocon? For some reason I never had a firm grasp of his positions on defense and foreign policy)
• Lisa Murkowski sort of but not really.

And a bunch of people who either did not hold political office yet (Patrick Murphy) or did not hold political office any more (Arne Carlson).

I will concede that quite a few 'neocons and moderates' have been driven out of Congress by ideological purity trolls, but that's not really the same thing, pernicious as it is.

The keyword is "and."

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Almost any center-right/neocon Republican.

Dear Lord no what on God's green Earth are you talking about that is not how the world WORKS

The ideological purity is driving them out of the GOP in droves. 
"Derp neocons and moderates are RINOs and socialists who want to destroy the Constitution!" 
That's the kind of rhetoric that drives folks out of our party.

Prominent 'neocons and moderates' who have been driven out of the party:

• Jim Jeffords (moderate, not a neocon, and this had a lot to do with constituency issues involving dairy farming; the Senate GOP actually had something of a history of bending over backwards for him--this was also during the period of neocon ascendancy within the party anyway)
• Lincoln Chafee (moderate, not a neocon)
• Wendy Davis (I doubt you want to claim her)
• Arlen Specter (moderate, does he count as a neocon? For some reason I never had a firm grasp of his positions on defense and foreign policy)
• Lisa Murkowski sort of but not really.

And a bunch of people who either did not hold political office yet (Patrick Murphy) or did not hold political office any more (Arne Carlson).

I will concede that quite a few 'neocons and moderates' have been driven out of Congress by ideological purity trolls, but that's not really the same thing, pernicious as it is.

The keyword is "and."

'And' is also the word that makes the point so stupid. Next to no remotely prominent neocons, including neocons who are also perceived as moderates, have been driven out of the party.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I wonder if we will ever see a really bizzare Ben Nighthorse Campbell switch in the future.