OH-PPP: Kasich +1%

[JRP1994]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/233730272/PPP-Poll-Ohio-Gov-Race

[Tender Branson]

Done for the OH Democratic Party.

Treat it with a truckload of salt.

Also: Don't add it to the database.

[windjammer]

Lol.

This poll is flawed.
3 reasons:
-Kasich is relatively popular. I'm not saying this is Safe Rep, but he has clearly the edge.
-With this poll, we don't even know the approvals of the candidates= suspicious.
-And finally this is a bit an internal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It would be nice to have Gov Fitzgerald instead of Kaaich.

Most of the polls like PPP had it a 5 pt lead, well within striking range. Only the QU university poll had it Kasich by 15.

Most of the GOP govs like Synder have enjoyed 5 pt leads.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

-Kasich is relatively popular.

Actually he isn't. I go to Cincinnati all the time, and I hear what people say about him.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

-Kasich is relatively popular.

Actually he isn't. I go to Cincinnati all the time, and I hear what people say about him.

Um, anecdotes don't trump consistent polling data.

His job approval usually ranges from 49% - 54% and I haven't seen his disapprovals exceed 43%. Obviously it doesn't perfectly translate into votes, but he looks very similar to Obama 2012 as the election approaches: good job approval, positive plurality personal appeal (say that 10 times fast), and is leading his challenger.

Yeah, things will tighten up as the election gets closer and Democrats turn out for Fitzgerald. Kasich or Fitzgerald could each see a surge, but right now it looks like Kasich will pull this one out with 50% - 52%.

[LeBron]

PPP also polled all of the other statewide executive down-ballot races (except Attorney General which makes sense since DeWine is the safest incumbent). All these polls are within the MOE btw.

In OH-Secretary of State, Republican incumbent Jon Husted leads Democratic State Sen. Nina Turner 45-42 with 13% undecided. Their previous poll had Turner leading by one point back in April, but  I would keep an eye on this one because blacks will turnout in big numbers for Turner especially when Husted is easily the 2nd most controversial incumbent (behind Mandel). This is still a narrow tossup.

In OH-Treasurer, Cincinnati State Representative Connie Pillich leads Tea Party incumbent Treasurer Josh Mandel 46-43 with 11% undecided. The only thing Mandel benefits from is having LOADS of money on hand to spend against Pillich and there's no Libertarian on the ballot, but 2012 is still in voters minds and he has had a failed record as Treasurer. Most people have very negative impressions of Mandel, to. This is borderline lean D, I would say.

And in OH-Auditor, Republican incumbent Dave Yost leads Democratic State Rep. John Patrick Carney 42-40 with 17% undecided.  Yost of course benefits from this being a race literally no one cares about and Yost doesn't have the kind of reputation Mandel has. X seems to be pretty optimistic about our chances here with Carney being a home favorite around Franklin County. I, personally, would call this lean R though.

Now on Ohio Governor, this race is a little closer since OH-Dems last PPP poll which had Kasich +4. This is basically a sign that Kasich's flooding of the airwaves wasn't going to boost his numbers forever and FitzGerald still has a few massive opportunities to get on the air. Kasich has yet to mention FitzGerald once in the campaign, which also plays in FitzGerald's favor. Ohioans weren't interested in the campaign back in March and April when those RGA/Kasich ads were hitting the TV. Both campaigns have launched their kickoffs and it will be what happens in these upcoming, last 3 months that matters.

Chris Schrimpf and the ORP, as expected, are already throwing out this poll, but still, Kasich has been pulling below 50 in approvals and the race itself apart from Quinnipiac and FitzGerald still has a good chunk of name rec. he needs yet. FitzGerald won't make the same mistakes that Strickland did and he's already campaigning and GOTV with us on the East and West Sides of Cleveland while Sharen herself plays much better in Southern Ohio with rural voters. I think you guys already know what rating I have for this race.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Done for the OH Democratic Party.

Treat it with a truckload of salt.

Also: Don't add it to the database.

This.

[pbrower2a]

Nothing was said of approval and disapproval. This is a weak lead for an incumbent. Ohio is not Safe R.

[free my dawg]

Done for the OH Democratic Party.

Treat it with a truckload of salt.

Also: Don't add it to the database.

This.

But Ed FitzGerald will #KeepClevelandStrong against anti-woman, anti-LGBT bigots like John KaSick!

[LeBron]

Done for the OH Democratic Party.

Treat it with a truckload of salt.

Also: Don't add it to the database.

This.

But Ed FitzGerald will #KeepClevelandStrong against anti-woman, anti-LGBT bigots like John KaSick!

Your contribution to this thread is mocking me again? I haven't referred to him as "KaSick" in months and if you look at the above post, I mentioned nothing about LGBT or abortion rights.