Euro 2016 Qualifying

[politicus]

I - Portugal, Denmark, Serbia

This is the correct order.

[politicus]

Serbia-Albania game was cancelled for skirmishes between fans.

There was a bit more to it than that...

Some Albanian nationalist(s) somehow flew a drone over the pitch carrying a Greater Albania flag.  A Serbian player grabbed the flag and tried to bring down the drone, and then scuffles broke out among the players, which then developed into a riot involving the Serbian fans (Albania had no tickets for the match, so there were essentially no away fans) with some of the fans attacking the Albanian players.

Pictures here.

Some people are apparently suggesting that this fixture should join Armenia-Azerbaijan and Spain-Gibraltar as one to be deliberately avoided in draws.

The Albanian players were also attacked by Serbian security guards inside the player tunnel.

[politicus]

Iceland-Kazakhstan 3-0. Dominating! The goals.

Second now, six points ahead of the Dutch, but for one more game.


Group A

Teams    P   W   D   L   F   A   +/-   Pts
Czech Rep. 4   4   0   0   10   5   5   12
Iceland      5   4   0   1   12   2   10   12
Netherlands 4   2   0   2   10   5   5   6
Turkey       4   1   1   2   5   7   -2   4
Latvia        4   0   2   2   1   10   -9   2
Kazakhstan 5   0   1   4   4   13   -9   1

[politicus]

Which official does this forum have to pay to get a Sweden-Denmark playoff matchup? We've certainly earned it after the past week or two.

You got your wish. Luckily we got the second game at home.

Ukraine - Slovenia
Sweden - Denmark
Bosnia - Ireland
Norway - Hungary


First match in Stockholm November 14 at 20.45

Second match in Copenhagen November 17 at 20.45

[politicus]

Predictions for playoffs:
Ukraine
Sweden
Ireland
Norway

Why?

Sweden has lost the last 4 matches against Denmark and failed to score in the last 5 - and we get to play them at home in the last match.

[politicus]

Predictions for playoffs:

Ukraine
Denmark
Bosnia
Norway

[politicus]

Statistics doesn't decide football matches, but its still a fun fact (at least if you are Danish), that Denmark hasn't lost to Sweden since Morten Olsen became head coach in 2000, apart from a "desk defeat" in 2007 after an episode where a drunken Danish spectator ran on the field and tried to attack the referee. The score was 3-3, but got changed to a 0-3 defeat afterwards.

A similar incident is probably Sweden's best chance

[politicus]

I think Ukraine, Sweden, Bosnia and Norway will make it.

I agree with David's picks actually though I'm not totally confident about any of it. I guess Ukraine would be what I am most sure about.

Why Sweden?

[politicus]

I guess you believe in the Zlatan magic, but he has never scored against Denmark and never played his best against us.

Norwegian FCK coach Ståle Solbakken:

- Denmark is a notch better, but Zlatan can equalize it. If he decides 100% that he wants to be in the European Championship in France, then that may be what determines it. Denmark is a bit better and has the advantage of finishing in the park, but clearly the biggest potential match winner is Sweden's Zlatan. He seems fit again, and he's got the speed back after his injury. It's a monster.

- If Zlatan hadn't been Swedish, but Norwegian, we had been through already and Denmark had been huge favorites.

Without Ibrahimovic Sweden is pretty weak at the moment. The Danish defender Simon Kjær has neutralized Zlatan before and had Ronaldo under control recently.

Obviously I am biased, but I fail to see why Sweden objectively should be favorites with DK finishing on home turf. Of course this could be the first time Zlatan actually plays his A-game against Denmark, but it all hinges on that (which also requires Kjær to be beneath top level). And I think Zlatan would need to be on or close to top level in both matches. Denmark is unlikely to collapse against Sweden, so it won't be a big win if Sweden wins in Stockholm.

[politicus]

Yeah, Denmark seems to be quite strong and has quite a good generation, but I think it's a "tossup/tilt Sweden" in Atlas terms, with Zlatan making the difference. If Zlatan wouldn't be in the Swedish team, I'd place my bets on Denmark.

Hmm, I think even most Swedish commentators have it the other way round: fairly close, tilt Denmark. Especially with the second match in Copenhagen.