Official Kansas Megathread

[tmthforu94]

With the Gubernatorial race looking to head down to the wire and also a competitive race for SoS that could change the future dynamics in Kansas, I felt it approrpriate to dedicate an entire thread to the Kansas elections.

Key races:

Gubernatorial:
Paul Davis
Sam Brownback
Jennifer Winn
Keen Umbehr

Secretary of State:
Jean Schodorf
Kris Kobach
Scott Morgan

Insurance Commissioner:
Dennis Anderson
Beverly Gossage
Clark Shultz
Ken Selzer
David Powell
John Toplikar

[badgate]

Here's Paul Davis' campaign intro video, which is fantastic and hits all the right notes.


Here's Jean Schodorf's

According to Schodorf's wiki page she just recently switched parties.

[tmthforu94]

Here's Paul Davis' campaign intro video, which is fantastic and hits all the right notes.


Here's Jean Schodorf's

According to Schodorf's wiki page she just recently switched parties.

Yeah, she actually ran for Congress down in KS-04 in 2010, placing second to Pompeo. The campaign really highlighted some of her moderate stances, and then in the Great Moderate Purge of 2012, she lost by a landslide in her primary for re-election to the State Senate.

She's not a bad recruit - I'm not particularly fond of party switches but she has a record I generally like and Kobach has been exceptionally awful. I plan on voting for Morgan in the primary - he is pretty qualified but just hasn't been generating a lot of buzz. Kobach used to be the Chair of KSGOP, so not too many big names are defecting.

[badgate]

^That is exactly the kind of context I was missing on her party switch. She sounds like the textbook definition of "The ______ party left me" party switching.

I could not find her birthdate, but if she and Davis are successful she would be positioned well to make a bid to succeed him as Gov.

[sg0508]

The key questions to me:

1) What percentage will the third party candidate receive?
2) Which candidate are they likely to take more votes from?

All else being equal, I still believe the "Coming Home" effect will win it for Brownback, and that the anti-Democratic sentiment for this year could buy him another few points, just enough to win.

[tmthforu94]

^That is exactly the kind of context I was missing on her party switch. She sounds like the textbook definition of "The ______ party left me" party switching.

I could not find her birthdate, but if she and Davis are successful she would be positioned well to make a bid to succeed him as Gov.

She's in her mid 60's, maybe 64 or 65. If Davis were successful and happened to win re-election she would be 72 or so in 2022, so not a chance.

This is looking far ahead, but if Davis were to win this year, I don't see him surviving in 2018. He's going to face a tough time in the legislature and if Hillary wins in 2016, 2018 will likely be a favorable year to Republicans. His one saving grace is that Kris Kobach would likely be his opponent.

[Orser67]

I've read a few articles lately about moderate Kansas Republicans being disappointed with the recent conservative turn by the state GOP. I'm hoping this is a factor in November.

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Definitely true about Hillary, but we have seen other Governors remain fairly popular in the face of opposite-party legislatures. Chris Christie comes to mind.

[sg0508]

^That is exactly the kind of context I was missing on her party switch. She sounds like the textbook definition of "The ______ party left me" party switching.

I could not find her birthdate, but if she and Davis are successful she would be positioned well to make a bid to succeed him as Gov.

She's in her mid 60's, maybe 64 or 65. If Davis were successful and happened to win re-election she would be 72 or so in 2022, so not a chance.

This is looking far ahead, but if Davis were to win this year, I don't see him surviving in 2018. He's going to face a tough time in the legislature and if Hillary wins in 2016, 2018 will likely be a favorable year to Republicans. His one saving grace is that Kris Kobach would likely be his opponent.

Many times, the minority party (especially if he/she governs from the middle) tends to be a lot more successful, and while there could be some effect of the national sentiment, gubernatorial races are far less linked to that...unlike Senatorial races (i.e. Linc Chafee in RI in '06 for example).

[badgate]

Oh yeah, she'll be retiring if she's in her 70s.

Davis probably will need to run against a poor candidate or a poor campaign no matter the party in the White House, if he holds on in 2018.

[sg0508]

I think another important question to ask is, "who gets the credit from the voters for Kansas' economic growth the past few years?"

In some states, the governor is taking/getting most of the credit. In other states, the governor is just seen as having it happen on his/her watch, but it wasn't really their doing. 

[illegaloperation]

Davis probably will need to run against a poor candidate or a poor campaign no matter the party in the White House, if he holds on in 2018.

I disagree. He will have incumbency advantage unless he does something stupid like trying to ban open carry.

No Kansas Democratic governor has lost re-election since 1960.

Additionally, a governor seat isn't as particularly partisan as a senate seat.

[tmthforu94]

Rick Santorum campaigned today with Brownback in Johnson County and Wichita...

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Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/2014/07/14/3553376/santorum-free-world-at-stake-in.html#storylink=cpy

Too funny...

[illegaloperation]

Rick Santorum campaigned today with Brownback in Johnson County and Wichita...

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Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/2014/07/14/3553376/santorum-free-world-at-stake-in.html#storylink=cpy

Too funny...

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/santorum#Noun

[TX Conservative Dem]

Wouldn't be surprised if Brownback is running TV Ads right now.

[Gass3268]

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[Flake]

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http://m.cjonline.com/news/state/2014-07-15/more-100-gop-politicians-endorse-democrat-davis-governor

[Incipimus iterum]

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http://m.cjonline.com/news/state/2014-07-15/more-100-gop-politicians-endorse-democrat-davis-governor

Man this is bad for Brownback

[illegaloperation]

Man this is bad for Brownback

I know. Woops.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/some-in-kansas-gop-break-with-gov-brownback-endorse-democratic-opponent-1405441534

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/07/15/more-than-100-republicans-endorse-democrat-against-kansas-gov-brownback-r/

[RogueBeaver]

Politico on the Guv race.

[Joe Republic]

Kansas is really a three-party state (with two of them technically sharing the same party) and has been for quite some time.  This election is playing out just like 2002.

[illegaloperation]

If Brownback wins reelection and steps on the accelerator, we will have a real life experiment that shows supply-side economics is a lie.

[Maxwell]

If Brownback wins reelection and steps on the accelerator, we will have a real life experiment that shows supply-side economics is a lie.

Supply-side isn't a whole economic theory though. Supply-side works in certain situations. In Kansas, what it seems like, it wasn't needed.

[illegaloperation]

Supply-side isn't a whole economic theory though. Supply-side works in certain situations. In Kansas, what it seems like, it wasn't needed.

You know what I believe in? I believe in cutting sale taxes because sale taxes disproportionately affect the poor.

The poor spends the extra cash, the wealthy just accumulate the wealth.

I believe in income tax incentives to businesses that create jobs locally instead of oversea.

I don't believe in income tax cuts just for the sake of income tax cuts.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.kansascity.com/news/government-politics/article751853.html

Former Congresswoman Jan Meyers, who was listed as one of the Republicans endorsing Davis (and mentioned multiple times by other articles/news stations because of her prominent position), stated that she never endorsed Paul Davis, and that if she were to endorse, she would endorse Brownback.

Awk.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://www.kansascity.com/news/government-politics/article751853.html

Former Congresswoman Jan Meyers, who was listed as one of the Republicans endorsing Davis (and mentioned multiple times by other articles/news stations because of her prominent position), stated that she never endorsed Paul Davis, and that if she were to endorse, she would endorse Brownback.

Awk.

I wonder what the Republicans offered her to pretend she never endorsed Davis.