Which map is more likely by 2024?

[Rockefeller GOP]

Whenever I look at these threads and see that no choices have NH as Democratic, I know to ignore it

Considering how strongly New England has trended toward Democrats since the '90s and how defiantly behind that trend New Hampshire has remained, I think it's perfectly reasonable to think that a more socially moderate/more libertarian leaning GOP (which is what many think the party will have to become to survive in the future) could swipe NH into its column.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Just a side comment: obviously any one given map is going to seem unlikely, but that hardly suggests that the same demographics/states will continue their current voting patterns decades from now.  For all we know, Blacks could vote Republican in 50 years.  Is that likely?  No, but if you would have told someone in the 1880s that Blacks would vote loyally Democrat from the '30s on, they'd find it hard to believe.