Which map is more likely by 2024?

[Person Man]

In order to remain competitive, the GOP needs to do better with Hispanics, which would lead to a lot of the Democratic trending western states to flip back.

At the same time, I thing that the Democratic trend in the coastal south (Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia) will continue.

In this way I like maps 2 and 3 better (which are effectively the same, really).  However, I don't think the Democrats will collapse in the Midwest.  The Republicans will be competitive there with the right candidate or the right environment, but I don't see the case for a Republican trend there.  

The map gives Democrats an edge in a 50/50 election like today, however re-allocation of EVs will likely boost the Republicans a bit.

If the Republicans do well reaching out to Hispanics, they will at least do substantially better amongst blacks. Maybe they will go from 12:1 and 2:1 respectively to 3:1 and 5:4 respectively?

[Person Man]

In order to remain competitive, the GOP needs to do better with Hispanics, which would lead to a lot of the Democratic trending western states to flip back.

At the same time, I thing that the Democratic trend in the coastal south (Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia) will continue.

In this way I like maps 2 and 3 better (which are effectively the same, really).  However, I don't think the Democrats will collapse in the Midwest.  The Republicans will be competitive there with the right candidate or the right environment, but I don't see the case for a Republican trend there.  

The map gives Democrats an edge in a 50/50 election like today, however re-allocation of EVs will likely boost the Republicans a bit.

If the Republicans do well reaching out to Hispanics, they will at least do substantially better amongst blacks. Maybe they will go from 12:1 and 2:1 respectively to 3:1 and 5:4 respectively?

Didn't George Bush do well with Hispanics in 2004 and no better with Blacks than normal?

I heard he got into the teens and like 15% in Ohio. It's conceivable that a future Republican could win 45% of the Hispanic vote and 20-25% of the Black vote. That would force Democrats into a more socially liberal and fiscally conservative direction.

I'd imagine this is what the map would look like if Republicans start doing better amongst minorities. The might even win Minnesota and New Jersey-

[Person Man]

^
Nationwide, George Bush got 11% of the Black vote in 2004, despite getting 44% of the Hispanic vote. 

Regardless, I don't think its fair to assume that just because the GOP does better with Hispanics, it'll do better with African Americans just because they're both minorities.  They're two different demographic groups with different religious compositions, culture, and political goals. 

But it does show that it's possible to reach out in ways you couldn't do before.