Which map is more likely by 2024?

[Skill and Chance]

Probably Map A.  Although, I think more of the Midwest than that would flip before R's pick up NH and also that GA/FL would probably go D if Democrats are doing that well with Hispanic voters. 

If Republicans are going to move socially left enough to have NH be lean R, Democrats are going to gain ground in parts of the South and there would be more national GOP improvement in the upscale suburbs.  The federal workers might be even more Dem than today, but could turn the tide in a lot of close Kerry states.  I propose something like this:

[Skill and Chance]

I would think the 3rd one, but flip Nevada and make Georgia a toss up.  It would be difficult to explain Florida and Georgia moving that far left without a similar trend in the Southwest.

[Skill and Chance]

Or how about something like this.  The gist is that the North/South gap in the white vote closes up after a Christie/Ryan win in 2016 and a Hagan/Warner/Nunn win in 2020/24:

[Skill and Chance]

In order to remain competitive, the GOP needs to do better with Hispanics, which would lead to a lot of the Democratic trending western states to flip back.

At the same time, I thing that the Democratic trend in the coastal south (Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia) will continue.

In this way I like maps 2 and 3 better (which are effectively the same, really).  However, I don't think the Democrats will collapse in the Midwest.  The Republicans will be competitive there with the right candidate or the right environment, but I don't see the case for a Republican trend there.  

The map gives Democrats an edge in a 50/50 election like today, however re-allocation of EVs will likely boost the Republicans a bit.

If the Republicans do well reaching out to Hispanics, they will at least do substantially better amongst blacks. Maybe they will go from 12:1 and 2:1 respectively to 3:1 and 5:4 respectively?

It will be a tall order for the GOP to do better among blacks after the way they treated the first black president.

No one will be voting based on Obama's tenure in 2024 and probably not in 2022 or 2020 either.  Even G.W. Bush, who left office with ~25% approval  isn't an issue in 2014 and was only a minor issue in 2012.  Consider what happened to the Catholic vote after Kennedy and Johnson (symbolically a re-election of Kennedy for all extents and purposes)http://cara.georgetown.edu/presidential%20vote%20only.pdf 2024 would be equivalent to 1976 here, and Nixon had already won the Catholic vote in '72!  Now Catholic identity is obviously less cohesive than black identity, but keep in mind that the Catholic vote had basically never gone decisively R before.