New Election Lab forecast suggests 86 percent chance that GOP wins Senate
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Author Topic: New Election Lab forecast suggests 86 percent chance that GOP wins Senate  (Read 459 times)
Saint Milei
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« on: July 15, 2014, 05:57:42 PM »
Hope this isn't a repost

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/07/15/new-election-lab-forecast-suggests-86-percent-chance-that-gop-wins-senate/
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2014, 05:58:25 PM »
......dang.....
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SWE
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2014, 06:06:44 PM »
Republicans have a better chance of winning Iowa than North Carolina
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2014, 06:12:53 PM »
Quote from: Speaker SWE on July 15, 2014, 06:06:44 PM
Republicans have a better chance of winning Iowa than North Carolina

yea this is totally wrong. I mean, Tillis is incompetent, but he isn't calling for the Presidents impeachment.
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2014, 06:40:01 PM »
Quote from: IDS Legislator Maxwell on July 15, 2014, 06:12:53 PM
Quote from: Speaker SWE on July 15, 2014, 06:06:44 PM
Republicans have a better chance of winning Iowa than North Carolina

yea this is totally wrong. I mean, Tillis is incompetent, but he isn't calling for the Presidents impeachment.

Tillis isn't incompetent.  And Hagan isn't quite as bad a candidate as "Farmer" Braley, the man who threatens to sue because his neighbor is housing chickens used to rehabilitate disabled children.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2014, 06:51:02 PM »
FiveThirtyEight and the NYT both say it's close to 50/50, which is also what common sense says. I think I'll believe them over this weird map.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2014, 07:30:45 PM »
From the methodology section: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2014/05/05/how-election-lab-works/

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This is a terrible model. A president's low approval rating or low levels of economic growth mean different things in different contexts and it is probably more prudent to rely on polling.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2014, 07:31:52 PM »
Is Election Lab the new project from Unscrewed Polls?
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