Who is more likely to win?

[IceSpear]

Vote now!

[free my dawg]

Scott Brown. Natalie Tennant is a good candidate, but Obama is president, it's an open seat in one of the most vehemently anti-Obama states, and she's not part of the "old guard" like Manchin is.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Scott Brown, definitely.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Brown of course.

[IceSpear]

By the way, both of them have about a 10 point lead in the polls, and the NYT gives both Shaheen and Capito a 97% chance of winning, which is why I thought this was an interesting question.

I'm going narrowly with Tennant. While NH is much more fertile ground for Dems than WV, Tennant has so far run a decent campaign and has deep West Virginia roots, unlike Brown who has had a mediocre rollout and is continually being pilloried as a carpetbagger.

[Vega]

Natalie Tennant.

I mean, I know that West Virginia Democrats are more conservative than other ones, but the Governor and State Legislature are controlled by Democrats.

[Never]

Tennant by a hair. Jeanne Shaheen is very much in tune to her state, and it's going to take more than the current political environment and Scott Brown to topple her. Capito, on the other hand, has a slightly smaller edge than Shaheen.

[NHLiberal]

Obviously I don't think either will win, but Tennant would have a much greater possibility of a theoretical comeback than Brown. The NH race is more winnable for Republicans than the WV one is for Democrats overall, but Tennant's running a great campaign whereas Brown is running an atrociously bad one. Additionally, Shaheen is a much better fit for NH than Capito is for WV; a fiscal conservative and social moderate should not be doing so well in a state that is socially conservative and fiscally moderate.

[dmmidmi]

Tennant is an elected official, at the state level, running for an open seat. Brown is a carpetbagger running against an incumbent, who is also a former Governor.

Tennant, by a mile. Her chances could get better--Brown's will get worse.

Not that either is likely to win at this point.

[Del Tachi]

Tennant most definitely.  Her odds will continue to get better, and I feel like it will be looking more like Tossup/Tilt Republican race by election day. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its obviously Tennant. Because the odds are stronger that the Dems will hold a 51-49 edge. But with Landrieu and Hagen holding on.

But it was worth the trip for Warren, it doesnt hurt to campaign for Grimes or Tennant for that 51st seat after Begich and Landrieu, in case Hagen doesnt make it 

[ElectionsGuy]

Brown, but they have a pretty equal chance of not winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The same appalachia block of KY, OH or WVa is unique and can be where some upsets and new Dems will be elected from.

Fitzgerald as well as Grimes have a good chance of being elected.

Nevermind NH, Shaheen is an excellent debator and will outlast you, just like she did Sununu. So watch for KY, not WVa.

[TDAS04]

Brown I guess, but both will lose. 

[Vosem]

Credible polling has shown Tennant mostly losing in the low teens and Brown in high single digits, so I'd have to say Brown. Also taking on Elizabeth Warren was a great task and I'm sympathetic to the guy who did it, even if he lost