The Romney Downfall - or is it? - and Beyond

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

February 22nd, 2012: The republicans hold a debate before the primaries in michigan and in arizona. In the debate, Rick Santorum is viewed as the winner, with Romney and Paul in a competitive tie for second, with Newt Gingrich viewed as not having had a good debate at all.

Reminder of Previous Primary Results:
1st. Rick Santorum - 4 wins (IA, MN, CO, MO)
1st. Mitt Romney - 4 wins (NH, FL, NV, ME)
3rd. Newt Gingrich - 1 win (SC)
4th. Ron Paul - 0 wins

February 28th 2012:
And we can now project, after a long night of counting, that Rick Santorum has won the republican primary in the state of michigan, the birth state of Mitt Romney!

Santorum: 34.7%
Romney: 34.1%
Gingrich: 17%
Paul: 14.2%

It's a very disappointing loss for Mitt Romney, he really wanted to win his birth state of michigan, where his father was governor and a state that may be competitive in the fall, but it wasn't to be as Rick Santorum celebrates his win in Michigan! However, Mitt Romney did come away with a win tonight in Arizona, although it was not by the double-digit margin that his campaign had been hoping for:

Romney: 43.1%
Santorum: 36.3%
Gingrich: 11.6%
Paul: 9%

Overall, this was a bad night for mitt romney, a loss in michigan and a underwhelming win in Arizona. This doesn't bear well for him tomorrow, when the wyoming caucuses will be held.

The next day:
And it has finally happened! In a race seen capable of going for Romney, Santorum, or Paul, we can project that Ron Paul has gotten his first win of the season, in the caucuses in the great state of Wyoming! Romney's loss in Michigan last night seems to have affected the result, as Romney placed a disappointing third. Congratulations to Ron Paul on his first win of the cycle!:

Paul: 34%
Santorum: 31%
Romney: 26%
Gingrich: 9%

"The Cause of liberty is more alive than it has ever been these last four years! Thank you Wyoming for doing what no other state could so far! But this will not be the only win I get! Let us go on to Washington State, to Idaho, to Alaska and North Dakota with one clear message: Restore America Now!" - Ron Paul

"First off, we'd like to thank the state of Arizona for giving us another victory! Unfortunately, we came up short in Michigan and in Wyoming but we were competitive in both states, especially in Michigan and remain in a good position in the overall standings. On to Ohio!" - Mitt Romney

"Thank you, Michigan, for the great victory you have given us! Your rejection of Mitt Romney shows that this party does not want a RINO, they want a firm conservative who truly knows what is best for the country! Thank you too to Arizona and Wyoming where we finished a strong second in both cases and beat Romney in Wyoming as well! This was exactly what my campaign needed and we feel this puts us in a very good position do very well on Super Tuesday! Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma, North Dakota, here we come!" - Rick Santorum

"Michigan, Arizona, and Wyoming were never a target of ours. We have a firm belief that we will carry at least Georgia and Oklahoma on super tuesday, and hope to carry Tennessee as well! Let's move forward with full determination!" - Newt Gingrich

New Primary Standings:
1st. Santorum: 5 wins (IA, MN, CO, MO, MI)
1st. Romney: 5 wins (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ)
3rd. Gingrich: 1 win (SC)
3rd. Paul: 1 win (WY)

Next is the Washington Caucuses on March 3rd, and then it is super tuesday! Can Mitt Romney rebound from his disappointing performances in MI and WY, or will Santorum show full signs of beginning to capture the heart and soul of the republican party?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

March 3rd, 2012: And we can project that Mitt Romney has won the Washington State caucuses by a narrow margin:

Romney: 33%
Paul: 29%
Santorum: 27%
Gingrich: 11%

But, will this narrow win in Washington create enough momentum for Romney to win the critical state of Ohio on super tuesday?

Super Tuesday
"It is 7:00 PM on the east coast, and three super tuesday primaries have concluded. Romney starts off the night with wins in Vermont and in Virginia, the latter of which only had Romney and Ron Paul on the ballot. Newt Gingrich has won his home state of Georgia as expected:"

GA Results:
Gingrich: 52%
Romney: 22%
Santorum: 20%
Paul: 6%

VT Results:
Romney: 36%
Paul: 28%
Santorum: 27%
Gingrich: 9%

VA Results:
Romney: 56%
Paul: 44%

Super Tuesday Victories:
Romney - 2 (VA, VT)
Gingrich - 1 (GA)
Paul/Santorum - 0

"It is 7:30 on the east coast and we have the first santorum victory of the night! Rick Santorum has narrowly won the state of Ohio, a great disappointment to the Romney campaign!:

Santorum: 39%
Romney: 37%
Gingrich: 16%
Paul: 8%

"A true disappointment for Mitt Romney there in the state of Ohio, that was a state he really wanted to win after losing Michigan last week. This essentially makes it impossible for Mitt Romney to lock up the nomination tonight."

"It is 8:00 on the east coast and we have results from three more states. Rick Santorum has won in Oklahoma and Tennessee, while Mitt Romney wins his home state of Massachusetts as expected:"

OK Results:
Santorum: 35%
Gingrich: 29%
Romney: 27%
Paul: 9%

TN Results:
Santorum: 35%
Romney: 27%
Gingrich: 24%
Paul: 14%

MA Results:
Romney: 66%
Santorum: 17%
Paul: 10%
Gingrich: 7%

Super Tuesday Victories:
Santorum - 3 (OH, OK, TN)
Romney - 3 (VT, VA, MA)
Gingrich - 1 (GA)
Paul - 0

"It is 9:00 on the east coast, and we can announce another victory for Rick Santorum in the north dakota caucuses!:"

Santorum: 41%
Paul: 29%
Romney: 24%
Gingrich: 6%

"It is 11:00 on the east coast, and we can announce another victory for Mitt Romney in the Idaho Caucuses!:"

Romney: 55%
Paul: 23%
Santorum: 20%
Gingrich: 2%

"It is 1:00 AM on the east coast, and we can announce that Ron Paul has gotten his victory for tonight, in the Alaska Caucuses!:"

Paul: 30%
Santorum: 28%
Romney: 25%
Gingrich: 17%

Super Tuesday Victories:
Santorum - 4 (OH, OK, TN, ND)
Romney - 4 (VT, VA, MA, ID)
Gingrich - 1 (GA)
Paul - 1 (AK)


------------------------
Current Primary Standings:
1st. Romney - 10 victories (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ, WA, VT, VA, MA, ID)
2nd. Santorum - 9 victories (IA, CO, MN, MO, MI, OH, OK, TN, ND)
3rd. Gingrich - 2 victories (SC, GA)
3rd. Paul - 2 victories (WY, AK)

"I'd like to thank my home state of GA for the great victory! Unfortunately, we came up short in TN and OK, but we were competitive in both, especially in OK, and our campaign shall continue! On to Mississippi and Alabama, where I firmly believe we will win and win big!" - Newt Gingrich

"The cause of liberty continues to be alive and well! First in WY, but now in AK as well, voters have confidently advocated for the cause of liberty and given their votes to our surging campaign! We also managed second place finishes in ND, ID, and VT, and kept the romney victory within 15 points in VA when he and I were the only ones on the ballot. This, along with our third place showing in MA, show that the cause of liberty continues to be popular and beloved among the american electorate, and our campaign definitely does not end here! In Hawaii and in the virgin islands we believe we will be successful, and we hope for great performances elsewhere as well! For the cause of liberty!" - Ron Paul

"We'd like to thank the states of VT, VA, MA, and ID for giving us these great victories, great, great victories. And while we fell short in OH and several other states, we were competitive in essentially every single race! I remain the best choice to truly forge the differences between myself and President Obama, and I urge the voters in MS and AL and IL and across the country and the territories to realize that I am the one who will truly restore this country!" - Mitt Romney

"Thank you Ohio for the great victory, where we showed once again that we are not lowered to picking a moderate, but instead want to pick someone who truly espouses the values and principles that we hold so dear! We showed this same value of core conservative principles in ND, OK, and TN where we were also victorious, and in AK where we outpolled Mitt Romney despite losing the state! We continue to believe that Obama will fall easily once our core conservative principles are exposed to the entire electorate, and these victories were exactly what our campaign needed to remain strong! On to Kansas, Misssissippi, Alabama, Illinois, Louisiana, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania - this momentum will continue!" - Rick Santorum

"And so, MI and the super tuesday states failed to lock up the race for Mitt Romney as he lost several key battlegrounds to Rick Santorum. Is Rick Santorum destined to be the nominee, or can Mitt Romney still manage to string together enough victories to narrowly win the nomination?"

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Getting very tense here I see... looking forward to the convention! Are you going to do this TL as far as the GE?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Getting very tense here I see... looking forward to the convention! Are you going to do this TL as far as the GE?

Yes, and possibly past that.

[MadmanMotley]

I like this TL so far! Keep it up!

[TX Conservative Dem]

Who's going to benefit if Romney implodes?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who's going to benefit if Romney implodes?

not going to spoil the story for you, sorry.
___________________________________

March 10, 2012:
"As you can see, Rick Santorum has won the caucus in the state of Kansas:"

Santorum: 51%
Romney: 19%
Gingrich: 16%
Paul: 14%

"Meanwhile, Mitt Romney will celebrate victories in Guam, which was his easiest win of the cycle due to him being the only candidate on the ballot, and in the Northern Mariana Islands, while Ron Paul gets his third victory of the cycle in the Virgin Islands Caucus!:"

Guam Results:
Romney: 92%
Uncommitted: 8%

Northern Mariana Islands Results:
Romney: 81%
Santorum: 12%
Paul: 4%
Gingrich: 3%

Virgin Islands Results:
Paul: 36%
Uncommitted: 30%
Romney: 24%
Santorum: 6%
Gingrich: 4%
-----------
Current Primary Standings:
1st. Romney - 12 victories (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ, WA, VT, VA, MA, ID, GU, NMI)
2nd. Santorum - 10 victories (IA, CO, MN, MO, MI, OH, OK, TN, ND, KS)
3rd. Paul - 3 victories (WY, AK, VI)
4th. Gingrich - 2 victories (SC, GA)

"As you can see, speaker Gingrich is now in last place in the primary standings, even behind Ron Paul! Can he resurge in the Mississippi and Alabama primaries, or will Santorum strike again?"

[MATTROSE94]

Who's going to benefit if Romney implodes?

Probably Rick Santorum, as he would likely become the nominee for the Republicans. I think that Santorum would do worse than Romney against Obama though, as he would probably end up losing at least North Carolina, Arizona, Montana and Georgia due to how toxic of a candidate he is.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

March 13th, 2012:

"It is 11:00 on the east coast, and as you can see, Mitt Romney has won the caucuses in the state of Hawaii and the territory of American Samoa:"

Hawaii Results:

Romney: 35%
Santorum: 29%
Paul: 21%
Gingrich: 15%

American Samoa Results:

Romney: 69%
Paul: 15%
Santorum: 12%
Gingrich: 4%


"Meanwhile, after a long night of counting, we can project the states of Alabama and Mississippi for Rick Santorum, a huge disappointment for Newt Gingrich!:"

Alabama Results:

Santorum: 36%
Gingrich: 32%
Romney: 27%
Paul: 5%

Mississippi Results:

Santorum: 34%
Gingrich: 31%
Romney: 28%
Paul: 7%

"So, Gingrich's southern strategy comes to a halt at the hands of Rick Santorum! Will this be enough to make Gingrich drop out?"

-----------------------
"While we didn't get the performance we were hoping for in Hawaii tonight, the cause of liberty remains popular among the american electorate, and we remain thankful for our victory in the virgin islands several days ago! Wherever the next victory shall come, we will take it, and take it with gratitude! Restore America Now!" - Ron Paul

"Thank you Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands for four more great victories! I greatly welcome your support! And while we did not win in any of the southern primaries, we remain hopeful that we will beat Santorum in the primaries that really matter - Illinois, Wisconsin, Delaware, and even Pennslyvania should fall into our hands!" - Mitt Romney

"Unfortunately, we came up short in Alabama and Mississippi tonight, and only managed third in Kansas the other day, a place where we were hoping for second. We came close to first in the former two, and close to second in the latter, but close is not enough, and now we are not even ahead of Ron Paul anymore overall. It is time for our campaign to end and get behind the one person who is capable of defeating Mitt Romney! I hereby end my campaign and endorse Rick Santorum!" - Newt Gingrich

"I'd like to start by thanking Newt Gingrich for his gracious endorsement of our campaign, an endorsement that we fully welcome! I'd also like to thank the states of Kansas, Mississippi, and Alabama for the great victories, and the state of Hawaii where we had a strong second place showing! We remain the true conservative choice, the clear opposition to Mitt Romney, and committed to uniting this country! On to Illinois, Louisiana, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania - we will keep surging!" - Rick Santorum

--------
Current Primary Standings (Gingrich delegates now pledged to Santorum):
1st. Mitt Romney - 14 victories (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ, WA, VT, VA, MA, ID, GU, NMI, AS, HI)
1st. Rick Santorum - 14 victories (IA, SC, MN, MO, CO, MI, GA, OH, OK, TN, ND, KS, MS, AL)
3rd. Ron Paul - 3 victories (WY, AK, VI)


"And so, Gingrich finally bites the dust and endorses Santorum, exactly what Romney didn't want! Now, will Gingrich supporters down the road do as he asks and vote close to unanimously for Santorum, or will some of those votes go to Paul or Romney instead? And can Rick Santorum continue to string together enough victories to remain competitive through the entire primary season?"

 

[TX Conservative Dem]

Romney will have to pull off a Nixon-style comeback.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

March 18th, 2012: "As you can see, Mitt Romney has won the primary in the territory of Puerto Rico:"

Romney: 74%
Santorum: 20%
Paul: 6%

March 20th, 2012: "After a long night of counting, we can project that Mitt Romney is the narrow winner of the Illinois Primary. Time will tell whether this is enough to get him a victory in Wisconsin as well on April 3:"

Romney: 45.2%
Santorum: 44.6%
Paul: 10.2%


-------------------------

"Thank you Illinois for the great victory! With this, our campaign is back on the right foot and is ready to win! We will win Wisconsin, Delaware, Pennsylvania - We have our momentum back! And this fall, we will be the ones to defeat President Obama! Let's move forward with this new momentum!" - Mitt Romney

"Sure, we came up short in Illinois tonight, but only just. And it is really telling when a state with a fairly moderate republican electorate can barely stomach endorsing Mr. Romney. This result only makes me more confident that we will be successful down the road, and that people are not ready to settle for a Massachusetts moderate, they want real conservative principles and values, and that's exactly what our campaign will espouse! On to Wisconsin!" - Rick Santorum

(Ron Paul elects not to make a speech)

-------------
Current Primary Standings:
1st. Romney - 16 victories (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ, WA, VT, VA, MA, ID, GU, NMI, AS, HI, PR, IL)
2nd. Santorum - 14 victories (IA, SC, CO, MN, MO, MI, GA, OH, OK, TN, ND, KS, MS, AL)
3rd. Paul - 3 victories (WY, AK, VI)

"And so, Romney eeks out a win in a state where the moderate republican wing is larger than the conservative republican wing. Sure, a win is a win, but will the narrow, narrow margin be enough to get Mr. Romney over the top in Wisconsin as well?"

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

March 24th, 2012:
"And Rick Santorum has gotten another victory in the Louisiana Primary!:"

Santorum: 64%
Romney: 22%
Paul: 14%

April 3rd, 2012:
"Three primaries were held tonight, in Maryland, the District of Columbia, and the state of Wisconsin. As you can see, Mitt Romney has won Maryland and the District of Columbia, but his Maryland Margin is far smaller than he wanted it to be.:"

Maryland Results:
Romney: 47%
Santorum: 42%
Paul: 11%

District of Columbia Results (Santorum not on ballot):
Romney: 58%
Paul: 42%

"However, in the state of Wisconsin, we can project a victory for Rick Santorum! Rick Santorum, winning the state of Wisconsin, a very welcome win after his loss in Illinois last week!:"

Santorum: 46%
Romney: 43%
Paul: 11%

"And there you have it. Another Santorum victory in the state of Wisconsin, which definitely extends this race on to Pennslyvania!"
----------------------
Current Primary Standings:
1st. Romney - 18 victories (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ, WA, VT, VA, MA, ID, GU, NMI, AS, HI, PR, IL, DC, MD)
2nd. Santorum - 16 victories (IA, SC, CO, MN, MO, MI, GA, OH, OK, TN, ND, KS, MS, AL, LA, WI)
3rd. Paul - 3 victories (WY, AK, VI)

"Thank you Maryland and the District of Columbia for the great victories! Unfortunately we came up short in Wisconsin but there are several primaries ahead in which we are strong! In New York, in Rhode Island, in Connecticut, in Pennslyvania, and in Delaware, we will win, putting us in a strong position for the primaries in May and June! Onward to victory!" - Mitt Romney

"As you can see, Mr. Romney cannot put this contest away. One would think that perhaps he gets a huge victory when it's just me and him, but he doesn't! There was a two way contest in the District of Columbia and we exceeded 40%! Sure, we have not gotten a victory in a while, but Delaware is coming up on the 24th, then there is Indiana and Oregon in May - we will get more victories!" - Ron Paul

"Thank you Louisiana and Wisconsin for the great victories! This shows all that Romney is a weak, weak candidate who can only win in states with centrist republican electorates like Maryland, and even then he does so only barely! These victories give us the confidence that we can win in Pennsylvania, perhaps in Delaware as well, and be in a great position to succeed in May and June, and take this all the way to the convention! Onward to victory!" - Rick Santorum

-----------
"And so, Mitt Romney wins a battleground in Maryland, but Santorum wins Wisconsin. Can Santorum capitalize on his Wisconsin win and do well enough on the 24th to extend this contest into May, or will Romney be able to use his win in Maryland to put this away on the 24th?..hold on here...We are receiving notice that Romney has agreed to two more debates with Santorum and Paul, in hopes that this will allow Romney to put this race away on the 24th. We'll see if these debates let him do just that, or simply drag him down even more."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

1st Debate Winner Poll:
Paul: 39%
Romney: 30%
Santorum: 25%
Tie: 6%

2nd Debate Winner Poll:
Santorum: 33%
Romney: 27%
Paul: 26%
Tie: 14%

Polling shows Romney with a large lead in New York and a small but significant lead in Rhode Island. Santorum has a small but significant lead in his home state of Pennslyvania, while Connecticut is a Romney-Santorum Toss-Up. Delaware seems capable of going for any of the three candidates.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

April 24th, 2012:
"It is 8:00 PM on the east coast and the polls have closed in Pennslyvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware. All of the primaries are too close to call. Please do not extrapolate from the early PA results too much, the most moderate areas tend to come in first."

Pennsylvania (5% in):
Romney: 55%
Santorum: 37%
Paul: 8%

Delaware (5% in):
Paul: 35%
Romney: 33%
Santorum: 32%

Rhode Island (5% in):
Romney: 49%
Santorum: 37%
Paul: 14%

Connecticut (5% in):
Santorum: 42%
Romney: 36%
Paul: 22%

"It is 9:00 P.M. and the polls have closed in New York State, Mitt Romney is the projected winner!"

New York (Final Results):
Romney: 50%
Santorum: 29%
Paul: 21%

Meanwhile, the other races remain too close to call:

Pennsylvania (30% in):
Romney: 50%
Santorum: 41%
Paul: 9%

Rhode Island (30% in):
Romney: 47%
Santorum: 39%
Paul: 14%

Connecticut (30% in):
Santorum: 41%
Romney: 36%
Paul: 23%

Delaware (30% in):
Paul: 33.9%
Santorum: 33.1%
Romney: 33%

"It is 10:00 PM EST, and Mitt Romney has won the primary in Rhode Island!"

Rhode Island (Final Results):
Romney: 46%
Santorum: 41%
Paul: 13%

The other primaries remain too close to call:

Pennsylvania (55% in):
Romney: 47%
Santorum: 44%
Paul: 9%

Connecticut (55% in):
Santorum: 41%
Romney: 38%
Paul: 23%

Delaware (55% in):
Romney: 34%
Santorum: 33.2%
Paul: 32.8%

"It is 11:00 PM on the east coast. No more calls yet."

Pennsylvania (69% in):
Santorum: 46%
Romney: 45%
Paul: 9%

Connecticut (69% in):
Santorum: 40%
Romney: 37%
Paul: 23%

Delaware (69% in):
Santorum: 34%
Romney: 33.1%
Paul: 32.9%

"It is 11:34 on the east coast. Rick Santorum has won his home state of Pennsylvania!:

Pennsylvania (Final Results):
Santorum: 48%
Romney: 42%
Paul: 10%

"It is midnight on the east coast. No more calls yet."

Connecticut (85% in):
Santorum: 38.2%
Romney: 38.1%
Paul: 23.7%

Delaware (85% in):
Santorum: 34%
Paul: 33.1%
Romney: 32.9%

"It is 2:00 on the east coast, Romney has won Connecticut narrowly, while Santorum has won Delaware narrowly!:

Connecticut (Final Results):
Romney: 38.8%
Santorum: 38.2%
Paul: 23%

Delaware (Final Results):
Santorum: 34.3%
Paul: 33.1%
Romney: 32.6%

"And so, Santorum gets two more victories in Pennsylvania and in Delaware. Romney gets the other three, but his victory in Connecticut is far, far too narrow for his liking and placing third in Delaware has got to be a big disappointment as well. This definitely pushes the race into May, in which the map is extremely favorable to Senator Santorum."
----------
Current Primary Standings:
1st. Romney - 21 victories (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ, WA, VT, VA, MA, ID, GU, NMI, AS, HI, PR, IL, DC, MD, CT, RI, NY)
2nd. Santorum - 18 victories (IA, SC, CO, MN, MO, MI, GA, OH, OK, TN, ND, KS, MS, AL, LA, WI, PA, DE)
3rd. Paul - 3 victories (WY, AK, VI)

"Thank you Delaware! The second place finish works just fine and gives our campaign new momentum, yes, new momentum! The surge for liberty is not over! Even though we have not gotten a win in a while, one should come soon! I have high hopes for the state of Indiana, and Oregon is a possibility as well! Let's go on in full confidence!" - Ron Paul

"Thank you Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New York! Thank you, thank you, thank you! As far as Pennsylvania goes, look, it's Santorum's home state, it was always going to be a long shot for us ('just like your own birth state', murmurs a few voices in the crowd). And while Delaware was a disappointment for us, none of tonight means in any way that this race is over. Oregon, Texas, North Carolina, here we come!" - Mitt Romney

"Thank you Pennsylvania and Delaware! And thank you also to Connecticut and Rhode Island where we also had a strong showing, and New York where we avoided placing last! This is exactly what our campaign needed, and it represents that no matter how many debates we have, the republican party does not want Mitt Romney! And now, the moderates are essentially done for a while and Mitt Romney has failed to lock things up. In the weeks ahead, I see victory everywhere, from Nebraska to Indiana to Kentucky to Texas to West Virginia! Romney is going down!" - Rick Santorum

"And so, Romney found that having more debates was the opposite of helpful. Even though he continues to lead overall, can he keep that lead throughout the month of May, or will Santorum take full advantage of a favorable map and leave Romney begging for mercy?"



 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5/1/2012 Electoral College Prediction:

I will spoil one thing to start: Ron Paul is not going to get the nomination, so he is not included below. He will have a speaking role at the convention, however.

The maps below depict an early prediction of an Obama/Santorum GE and an Obama/Romney GE. The red states are democratic, the blue states republican. The 30% shading indicates a Leans rating, the 50% shading a Likely rating, and the 70% shade a Solid rating. The gray states are Toss-Ups.

Obama vs. Santorum:

Obama: 288
Santorum: 191
Toss-Up: 59

Obama's path to victory over Santorum seems fairly easy, as Obama already has enough states leaning towards him to win. Santorum has 50/50 odds in IA, CO, NC, and FL, and is likely to win IN and NE-02, but he has yet to make any other Obama 2008 states be truly in play, though he's not too far behind in OH, VA, and PA. Meanwhile, Santorum must also play defense on McCain's 2008 turf, as AZ, GA, MT and MO have potential to become more competitive in the coming months despite a Santorum advantage there at this point in time. Overall, this seems to be a pretty good scenario for Mr. Obama, one even capable of bringing out another 2008 landslide, but he still needs to campaign carefully and ensure that Santorum doesn't improve his image among the american electorate too much.

Obama vs. Romney:

Obama: 253
Romney: 206
Toss-Up: 79

An Obama/Romney battle seems like more of a Toss-Up, with Obama ahead but short of the 270 votes needed to win. In this scenario, Obama's ability to bring in McCain 2008 states is quite limited, Ohio, New Hampshire and Virginia become in play while NC starts out with a Romney lean. Wisconsin, Nevada, and Pennslyvania aren't out of reach for Romney either, and some believe that a republican wave could put the pacific northwest and Romney's home state of Massachusetts (usually very democratic) into play.


(Note: Regardless of who wins the republican nomination, Obama's number of electoral votes will be different than it was in real life.)

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Please include a Ron Paul vs Obama one. Why play it safe with frothy (Rick Santorum) and Mitt. In 2012 Ron Paul had the better case for nomination than Santorum as Paul finished 2nd in terms of delegates.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Please include a Ron Paul vs Obama one. Why play it safe with frothy (Rick Santorum) and Mitt. In 2012 Ron Paul had the better case for nomination than Santorum as Paul finished 2nd in terms of delegates.

While Paul did finish second at the republican convention, that was only because Santorum 'released' his delegates so that Romney could get maximum delegate support behind him. In the actual pre-convention pledged delegate counts, Ron Paul was third, behind Romney and Santorum but slightly ahead of Gingrich.

Again, Paul's not going to get the nomination, he just won't have enough victories to convince enough superdelegates to go for him over one of the two others (RP has strength in IN, OR, TX, CA, MT and NM, but even if I let him win all of them, he'll still be significantly behind the top two). Again, he will speak at the convention, and I will say that it will not be a traditional convention speech, and he will be included in the convention's debate. Doing an electoral map for someone who I'm telling you right now will not get the nomination seems worthless, but hey, if you guys want it, I'll do it. I've put up a poll, vote as you please.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

May 7, 2012:

When the initial electoral predictions for Romney and Santorum were released by the networks, there was extreme rallying from the supporters of Ron Paul to include him in the electoral predictions as well. While at first the networks refused, afraid of giving Ron Paul more momentum than he already had gotten from his DE performance, they reluctantly obliged after fellow candidate Rick Santorum joined the rally. So on the day before the primaries in IN, WV, and NC, the networks analyzed a Ron Paul vs. Obama situation:

Obama: 253
Paul: 191
Toss-Up: 94

Of all the candidates, Paul's map looks the most peculiar, as parts of the northeast become less than solid, a bunch of the democratic midwestern and western firewall looks fairly in play, but some parts of the republican base don't look completely safe either. This is because of Ron Paul's radical on both sides political positions. Specifically, his positions on issues such as Social Security, Medicare, and Defense drag him down in parts of the republican base, but his position on Taxes saves him from really deteriorating. Meanwhile, his positions on Gay Marriage, Polygamy, Drugs, and Defense help him out in the northeast, the upper midwest, and the west, though once again his SS and medicare positions keep him from making full inroads there at this point in time. Much of how Ron Paul actually does depends on which part of him voters see more in the general election campaign: His far-right health care positions, or his far-left social/defense positions and extreme tax cut support.

May 8, 2012:

"It is 6:00 PM on the east coast and the polls have closed in Indiana. The race is too close to call."

Indiana (5% in):
Paul: 40%
Santorum: 33%
Romney: 27%

"It is 7:30 PM on the east coast and the polls have closed in West Virginia and North Carolina. Rick Santorum has scored a victory in West Virginia, North Carolina is too close to call. Remember, in North Carolina the most conservative precincts come in first."

West Virginia (Final Results):
Santorum: 42%
Romney: 30%
Paul: 28%

North Carolina (5% in):
Santorum: 48%
Romney: 30%
Paul: 22%


Indiana remains too close to call:

Indiana (16% in):
Paul: 38%
Santorum: 34%
Romney: 28%

"The clock has struck 9 on the east coast, and both Indiana and North Carolina remain too close to call:"

Indiana (49% in):
Santorum: 37%
Paul: 36%
Romney: 27%

North Carolina (38% in):
Santorum: 44%
Romney: 33%
Paul: 23%

"The clock has struck 10 on the east coast, and the outcomes remain uncertain:"

Indiana (72% in):
Paul: 37%
Santorum: 35%
Romney: 28%

North Carolina (59% in):
Santorum: 42%
Romney: 34%
Paul: 24%

"It is 11 o'clock on the east coast, Ron Paul has won Indiana!"

Indiana (Final Results):

Paul: 38%
Santorum: 36%
Romney: 26%

"North Carolina remains too close to call, but Romney is getting closer and closer! Can Santorum hold the lead?:"

North Carolina (81% in):

Santorum: 39.5%
Romney: 36.1%
Paul: 24.4%

"It is midnight on the east coast, and Rick Santorum has narrowly won the state of North Carolina, dealing another blow to Mitt Romney!:"

North Carolina (Final Results):
Santorum: 37.9%
Romney: 37.1%
Paul: 25%

----------------------------------------
Current Primary Standings:
1st. Romney - 21 victories (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ, WA, VT, VA, MA, ID, GU, NMI, AS, HI, PR, IL, DC, MD, CT, RI, NY)
2nd. Santorum - 20 victories (IA, SC, CO, MN, MO, MI, GA, OH, OK, TN, ND, KS, MS, AL, LA, WI, PA, DE, WV, NC)
3rd. Paul - 4 victories (WY, AK, VI, IN)


"Well, we tried very hard in North Carolina and came up short. But the fact remains that we are in a good position in OR and NE, and can make up for what happened here over there. Remember, regardless of how many southern primaries Mr. Santorum can win, we have the establishment behind us! We have the organization! We have the best ability to handle Barack Obama's billion dollar campaign! Let's move past this night, and back to victory!" - Mitt Romney

"Thank you North Carolina and West Virginia! And Thank you to Indiana as well! We had strong performances in all three states today, especially the two that we won, and in each state there was a rejection of a moderate candidate being the answer! To the voters in NE, KY, AR, and TX, don't settle for that center-left candidate pretending to be a hardcore republican, vote with your heart! Vote for true conservative principles, and true contrast from Barack Obama, as now a total of 20 states have done in this primary season! Let's move forward with full confidence!" - Rick Santorum

"Thank you Indiana for providing us the first victory in several weeks! This is exactly the win we needed to create new momentum, and gives me every reason to be confident down the road! OR, TX, CA, now it's your turn to endorse the cause of liberty! Remember, just one more victory until the republican convention has no way to shut us out!" - Ron Paul


"And so, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul performed as needed for the first day of may primaries, but can they do the same on the 15th in Nebraska and Oregon?"







 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

May 15, 2012:

"After a long night of counting, we can project the winners in Nebraska and Oregon! Rick Santorum has won Nebraska, and Ron Paul has won Oregon!:"

NE Results:
Santorum: 40%
Romney: 37%
Paul: 23%

OR Results:
Paul: 40%
Romney: 38.9%
Santorum: 21.1%

May 22, 2012:

"As expected, Rick Santorum wins in Arkansas and Kentucky:"

AR Results:
Santorum: 48%
Romney: 29%
Paul: 23%

KY Results:
Santorum: 42%
Romney: 33%
Paul: 25%

---------------
Current Primary Standings:
1st. Santorum - 23 victories (IA, SC, CO, MN, MO, MI, GA, OH, OK, TN, ND, KS, MS, AL, LA, WI, PA, DE, WV, NC, NE, AR, KY)
2nd. Romney - 21 victories (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ, WA, VT, VA, MA, ID, GU, NMI, AS, HI, PR, IL, DC, MD, CT, RI, NY)
3rd. Paul - 5 victories (WY, AK, VI, IN, OR)

"Thank you Oregon! With this victory, our fifth, we now have a place at the republican convention! We have secured a speaking slot for myself, a nomination speech from a top surrogate, and a place in the Convention's Debate! This was only possible because of your unconditional support! Without all our volunteers, all our loyal voters, this never would have happened! We will continue to campaign to ensure we have as many delegates as possible and maximum influence on the convention! On to TX, CA, NM, and MT!" - Ron Paul

"Look, did we come up short these last few primaries? We clearly did. But in both NE and OR we came very close, and we kept it within single digits in KY. We remain in good position to win the nomination at the convention, which is where it is almost assuredly going at this point. But, make no mistake, we will not go from now until UT without another victory! TX, CA, NJ, MT - somewhere, another victory will come!" - Mitt Romney

"Thank you Nebraska, Kentucky, and Arkansas! Thank you! Again and again, voters are showing that a moderate candidate is not the answer and will never be the answer, and now we are finally ahead of Mitt Romney overall! Now, all we must do is sustain this momentum, and the remaining primary calendar is ripe with opportunities. TX is very competitive, CA is looking better and better each day, and we are in a great position to win SD and MT as well! At the convention, voters will be making a serious choice. Do they want to settle for moderation or go with a candidate who stands up for conservative principles? Let's make sure their choice is the latter, and let's do it by ensuring we remain ahead of Mitt Romney throughout the rest of the primary season!" - Rick Santorum

"One shall always wonder how different this primary season would have been had Romney not lost both Michigan and Ohio way back when. No one would have predicted even four months ago today (Jan. 22) that Rick Santorum would be the one dragging Mitt Romney into a broker convention, and that Ron Paul would also secure a place. But it has happened, and now, outside of a complete miracle for Mitt Romney among the remainder of the contests, we will have the first broker convention in over 20 years! For now, though, the three candidates move on to TX, which is a three way toss-up according to the polls."

[MadmanMotley]

This is the primary map so far correct? Anyway, keep it up!

Rick Santorum
Mitt Romney
Ron Paul

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is the primary map so far correct? Anyway, keep it up!

Rick Santorum
Mitt Romney
Ron Paul

Yep. That's everything but the territories.


------------------------

"It is 8:00 PM on the east coast and the polls have closed in the state of Texas. The race is too close to call according to our exit polling."

Texas (5% in):
Romney: 43%
Paul: 31%
Santorum: 26%

Romney's lead dwindles as the night goes on....

Texas (30% in):
Romney: 38%
Paul: 32%
Santorum: 30%

And dwindles further as second and third switches...

Texas (52% in):
Romney: 36%
Santorum: 34%
Paul: 30%

Romney plunges further as the precincts most favorable to Ron Paul come in....

Texas (70% in):
Romney: 34%
Santorum: 33.1%
Paul: 32.9%

Texas (80% in):
Romney: 33.8%
Paul: 33.7%
Santorum: 32.5%

Romney is finally overtaken, but Santorum is forced to live with a bad night....

Texas (90% in):
Paul: 34.5%
Romney: 33.1%
Santorum: 32.4%

Texas (Final Results):
Paul: 35.3%
Romney: 32.9%
Santorum: 31.8%

------------
Current Primary Standings:
1st. Santorum - 23 victories (IA, SC, CO, MN, MO, MI, GA, OH, OK, TN, ND, KS, MS, AL, LA, WI, PA, DE, WV, NC, NE, AR, KY)
2nd. Romney - 21 victories (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ, WA, VT, VA, MA, ID, GU, NMI, AS, HI, PR, IL, DC, MD, CT, RI, NY)
3rd. Paul - 6 victories (WY, AK, VI, IN, OR, TX)

"Well, we came up short tonight, that much is clear. But we got the second best outcome - a Ron Paul Victory, and he, due to his rather low number of victories, is incapable of defeating Romney at the convention! We are the ones capable of defeating Romney and taking this fight right to Obama! Let's now move past this disappointment and back to victory - MT, SD, and CA are all within reach!" - Rick Santorum

"Look, we didn't win tonight, but we got a fairly good outcome nevertheless. A Ron Paul Victory and a third place Santorum finish is not bad at all. It displays that Santorum's train of good luck has run out as people are realizing that we are the answer to the question of how to defeat Obama. We were not able to get a full victory here because of home state loyalties, but our strong second place finish is just fine and gives us full confidence! Here's to a great night on June 5!" - Mitt Romney

"Thank you Texas! Thank you! This is our first big state victory of my whole 5 years campaigning for president and I am very grateful for it! With this, we have even more valuable delegates to take the challenge to Mitt Romney at the convention, where at minimum we can negotiate effective changes to the republican platform and at maximum even woo superdelegates into making me the nominee! Now, let's channel this into a great performance on June 5. MT, NM, CA - we ask for every vote you can possibly give us!" - Ron Paul

"And so, Ron Paul, just like each member of the final four, wins his home state, and Santorum has a night worse than anyone thought he would have. What does this mean for June 5, when the last major primaries occur?"

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

6/1/2012 Electoral College Prediction:

The maps below depict an early prediction of an Obama/Santorum GE, an Obama/Paul GE and an Obama/Romney GE. The red states are democratic, the blue states republican. The 30% shading indicates a Leans rating, the 50% shading a Likely rating, and the 70% shade a Solid rating. The gray states are Toss-Ups.

Obama vs. Santorum:

Obama: 288
Santorum: 180
Toss-Up: 70

Based on polling and planned locations of active campaigning, the following rating changes have been made:

AZ: Lean R to Toss-Up
NH: Likely D to Lean D
WI: Likely D to Lean D

Obama vs. Paul:

Obama: 253
Paul: 195
Toss-Up: 94

Based on polling and planned locations of active campaigning, the following rating changes have been made:

ME-02: Likely D to Lean D
WA: Likely D to Lean D
CT: Likely D to Safe D
SD: Likely R to Safe R
NH: Toss-Up to Lean R

Obama vs. Romney:

Obama: 253
Romney: 235
Toss-Up: 50

Based on polling and planned locations of active campaigning, the following rating changes have been made:

OR: Likely D to Lean D
MN: Likely D to Lean D
FL: Toss-Up to Lean R

(Note: Regardless of who wins the republican nomination, Obama's number of electoral votes will be different than it was in real life.)
---------------------
For the primaries on June 5, polling shows the following:

A three-way statistical tie in CA
A Santorum-Paul statistical tie in MT
A small but significant lead for Paul in NM
A small but significant lead for Santorum in SD
A large lead for Romney in NJ

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

June 5, 2012:

"It is 8:00 PM on the east coast and the polls have closed in the state of New Jersey. Mitt Romney wins as expected.:"

New Jersey (Final Results):
Romney: 49%
Paul: 33%
Santorum: 18%

"It is 9:00 PM on the east coast and the polls have closed in New Mexico and in South Dakota. Both races are too close to call at this point."

New Mexico (5% in):
Paul: 44%
Romney: 35%
Santorum: 21%

South Dakota (5% in):
Romney: 38%
Santorum: 36%
Paul: 26%

"It is 10:00 PM on the east coast. Polls have closed in the state of Montana, but it is too close to call along with New Mexico and South Dakota.:"

Montana (5% in):
Paul: 43%
Santorum: 36%
Romney: 21%

New Mexico (30% in):
Paul: 42%
Romney: 37%
Santorum: 21%

South Dakota (30% in):
Santorum: 39%
Romney: 37%
Paul: 24%

"It is 11:00 PM on the east coast and the polls have closed in the state of California, but it is also too close to call:"

California (5% in):
Santorum: 37%
Romney: 32%
Paul: 31%

Montana (30% in):
Paul: 41%
Santorum: 38%
Romney: 21%

New Mexico (49% in):
Paul: 42%
Romney: 39%
Santorum: 19%

South Dakota (49% in):
Santorum: 41%
Romney: 36%
Paul: 23%

12:00 AM on the east coast....

California (30% in):
Santorum: 34%
Romney: 33.1%
Paul: 32.9%

Montana (49% in):
Paul: 40%
Santorum: 38%
Romney: 22%

New Mexico (69% in):
Paul: 42%
Romney: 38%
Santorum: 20%

South Dakota (69% in):
Santorum: 42%
Romney: 36%
Paul: 22%

"It is 12:31 AM on the east coast. Rick Santorum has won the state of South Dakota!"

South Dakota (Final Results):
Santorum: 43%
Romney: 34%
Paul: 23%

"It is 1:00 AM on the east coast. All three remaining states are too close to call:

California (49% in):
Romney: 33.9%
Paul: 33.3%
Santorum: 32.8%

Montana (69% in):
Paul: 39.1%
Santorum: 38.9%
Romney: 22%

New Mexico (86% in):
Paul: 42%
Romney: 39%
Santorum: 19%

"It is 1:28 AM on the east coast. The state of New Mexico has gone for Ron Paul!"

New Mexico (Final Results):
Paul: 42%
Romney: 39.5%
Santorum: 18.5%

2:00 on the east coast...

California (69% in):
Romney: 33.7%
Santorum: 33.2%
Paul: 33.1%

Montana (86% in):
Santorum: 40%
Paul: 39%
Romney: 21%

"It is 2:38 AM on the east coast. Rick Santorum has won the state of Montana!:"

Montana (Final Results):
Santorum: 41%
Paul: 39%
Romney: 20%

3:00 on the east coast...

California (86% in):
Romney: 33.9%
Santorum: 33.4%
Paul: 32.7%

"And finally, at 3:51 AM on the east coast, we can declare that the state of California will be the first state this year to go to a recount, due to the margin being within 0.5%.:"

California (Apparent Final Results):
Romney: 33.8%
Santorum: 33.4%
Paul: 32.8%

(All Candidates postpone their speech until the recount is completed)

Current Primary Standings:
1st. Santorum - 25 victories (IA, SC, CO, MN, MO, MI, GA, OH, OK, TN, ND, KS, MS, AL, LA, WI, PA, DE, WV, NC, NE, AR, KY, MT, SD)
2nd. Romney - 22 victories (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ, WA, VT, VA, MA, ID, GU, NMI, AS, HI, PR, IL, DC, MD, CT, RI, NY, NJ)
3rd. Paul - 7 victories (WY, AK, VI, IN, OR, TX, NM)
Unclear - 1 state (CA)

"And so, the result of the final major primary remains unknown as a recount that will take several days to complete begins. While no realistic result would involve either Romney or Santorum locking up the nomination, a Santorum victory here would give him great momentum heading into the republican convention."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The California recount continued on for days, with Romney and Santorum both on pins and needles. A Romney win in CA would mean that the establishment still supported Romney, that things were finally turning his way, and that the convention superdelegates should choose him. A Santorum win, on the other hand, would mean that even the most moderate parts of the republican party were not satisfied with Romney and believed that Santorum would be a good national candidate, and that the superdelegates would choose him. With the UT Primary on the 26th considered a sure bet for Mr. Romney, the completion of the CA recount would essentially put an end on the primary season that had ended in a manner no one had expected when it began.

And on the 11th of June, the California recount, done completely by hand, was done. And the results had gotten even closer than they had been in the original results. But now, it was final, and all three candidates, including Ron Paul, would have to live with it:

CA (Final Results):
Santorum: 33.6%
Romney: 33.5%
Paul: 32.9%


"And there, you see it, a narrow win, narrow, very narrow, for Rick Santorum in the primaries in the state of California! A true, true disappointment for Mr. Romney, he really wanted to win the state of CA, but it wasn't to be! Rick Santorum, the winner in the state of California!"

Current Primary Standings:
1st. Santorum - 26 victories (IA, SC, CO, MN, MO, MI, GA, OH, OK, TN, ND, KS, MS, AL, LA, WI, PA, DE, WV, NC, NE, AR, KY, MT, SD, CA) (Approximate Pledged Delegates: 912)
2nd. Romney - 22 victories (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ, WA, VT, VA, MA, ID, GU, NMI, AS, HI, PR, IL, DC, MD, CT, RI, NY, NJ) (Approximate Pledged Delegates: 884)
3rd. Paul - 7 victories (WY, AK, VI, IN, OR, TX, NM) (Approximate Pledged Delegates: 215)

UT Delegates: 40
Total Unpledged (Super) Delegates: 235

---------------------------------------

"Thank you New Jersey for the great victory! California, New Mexico, South Dakota, thank you for the second place finish, which was within single digits in all three cases! Yes, we did really want to win California, but look, we came more than close enough. More than close enough! Furthermore, due to proportional representation rules and the fact that Rick Santorum was unable to secure full delegate slates in certain states, we will have a slight lead in delegates once the UT contest has occured, and I pledge we will be victorious at the republican convention in August! Barack Obama is going down!" - Mitt Romney

"Thank you New Mexico for the great victory! This victory shows that the cause of liberty is continuing to grow and grow, and while our delegate number is not as big as that of the two other candidates, there is no reason why we cannot win at the convention! After the first vote, the delegates are released from pledges, and we are actively courting super delegates to support us. Sure, it would be a surprise to most for us to actually win the nomination, but it can be done, and at the very least we will come a lot closer than anyone currently thinks! On to the convention!" - Ron Paul

"Thank you California, South Dakota, and Montana! What a great ending to the primary season! We have beaten Mr. Romney in a state with one of the most moderate electorates in the country, we have shown that we can compete with the libertarian supporters of Ron Paul, and in both South Dakota and Montana our grassroots effort really shined through! Even though UT is a safe bet for Mr. Romney, his margin of victory probably won't be as big as it would have been had he not had a mediocre at best primary season at the hands of myself and Mr. Paul! Starting from the night, way back in January, to when voters picked me in Iowa, to when we beat Mr. Romney in the critical states of CO, MI, OH, and WI, to when we got the endorsement of Mr. Gingrich, to the complete shutout of Mr. Romney in the primaries in the month of May, you have shown that what the republican party needs and wants is not a moderate, no , not a moderate! It is a candidate that truly epouses the values of the republican party, a candidate who will not compromise our principles, and a candidate who can draw the true contrast in debates with president Obama! Superdelegates, I call on you! Don't go with a moderate! Don't go with someone who agrees with president Obama on Foreign Policy! No, go with someone who really speaks to the key values and core beliefs that you hold so dear! Please, when the convention occurs this august, follow your heart and support our campaign! Onward to Victory!"- Rick Santorum

"And so, the primary season finally comes to an effective end, and goes straight to the first broker convention in decades! The last time a convention was even remotely competitive was back in 1980, but we will get a truly competitive convention this year! There are nearly 3 months until it occurs though, which the 3 candidates will spend courting super delegates, campaigning in presidential swing states, choosing their running mates, and criticizing President Obama."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

June 26th, 2012:

"Mitt Romney wins the Utah Primary as expected:"

Romney: 65%
Paul: 22%
Santorum: 13%

Final Primary Standings:
1st. Santorum - 26 victories (IA, SC, CO, MN, MO, MI, GA, OH, OK, TN, ND, KS, MS, AL, LA, WI, PA, DE, WV, NC, NE, AR, KY, MT, SD, CA) (Approximate Pledged Delegates: 912)
2nd. Romney - 23 victories (NH, FL, NV, ME, AZ, WA, VT, VA, MA, ID, GU, NMI, AS, HI, PR, IL, DC, MD, CT, RI, NY, NJ, UT) (Approximate Pledged Delegates: 924)
3rd. Paul - 7 victories (WY, AK, VI, IN, OR, TX, NM) (Approximate Pledged Delegates: 215)

Total Unpledged (Super) Delegates: 235

Result of Primaries: Broker Convention, due to no one having locked down the 1144 delegate votes needed to win the GOP nomination

-------------------------


All three republican candidates ran ads against Obama in the month of June, and Obama responded by running ads against all three. Very few ads were positive. The republican candidates, when not studying running mate lists or courting superdelegates, spent their time stumping in swing states. Santorum's first task was to push more Obama 2008 states into the Toss-Up column to get the number of electoral votes leaning toward Obama below 270, so he was spending his time in OH, VA, PA, WI, and NH. Meanwhile, Paul and Romney spent their time in the states currently in the Toss-Up column, focusing on locking down as many of those as they could before the fall campaign.

------------------------------------------

A look at Gubernatorial Races - July 1, 2012:

(Note: Toss-Ups are in green. States in gray don't have a gubernatorial election in 2012.)

New Hampshire Poll:
Maggie Hassan: 44%
Ovide Lamontagne: 39%

Indiana Poll:
Mike Pence: 46%
John Gregg: 36%

Missouri Poll:
Jay Nixon: 49%
Dave Spence: 38%

Montana Poll:
Steve Bullock: 44%
Rick Hill: 43%

North Carolina Poll:
Pat McCrory: 46%
Walter Dalton: 40%

West Virginia Poll:
Earl Ray Tomblin: 45%
Bill Maloney: 39%

Washington Poll:
Jay Inslee: 44%
Rob McKenna: 42%

(Note: The governor results will not be exactly the same as in real life, although the winners may remain the same. The wisconsin recall results are unchanged from real life.)