The Romney Downfall - or is it? - and Beyond

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A look at Senate Races (July 1, 2012):

(Note: Toss-Ups are in green 50% shading. A 'safe independent' seat is in green 80% shading. States without a senate race are in gray.)

Nebraska Poll:
Deb Fischer: 52%
Bob Kerrey: 40%

Arizona Poll:
Jeff Flake: 45%
Richard Carmona: 35%

Hawaii Poll:
Mazie Hirono: 53%
Linda Lingle: 42%

Pennsylvania Poll:
Bob Casey: 49%
Tom Smith: 39%

West Virginia Poll:
Joe Manchin: 51%
John Raese: 39%

New Mexico Poll:
Martin Heinrich: 44%
Heather Wilson: 39%

Indiana Poll:
Richard Mourdock: 43%
Joe Donnelly: 38%

Ohio Poll:
Sherrod Brown: 47%
Josh Mandel: 40%

Florida Poll:
Bill Nelson: 48%
Connie Mack: 41%

Nevada Poll:
Dean Heller: 42%
Shelley Berkley: 36%

Connecticut Poll:
Chris Murphy: 45%
Linda McMahon: 38%

North Dakota Poll:
Rick Berg: 46%
Heidi Heitkamp: 40%

Montana Poll:
Denny Rehberg: 45%
Jon Tester: 43%

Wisconsin Poll:
Tammy Baldwin: 44%
Tommy Thompson: 44%

Missouri Poll:
Todd Akin: 44%
Claire McCaskill: 42%

Massachusetts Poll:
Scott Brown: 44%
Elizabeth Warren: 41%

Virginia Poll:
Tim Kaine: 45%
George Allen: 44%

(Note: The senate race results will not be exactly the same as in real life, and at least 1 winner will change.)

[Simfan34]

Santorum winning? In California? How... unusual!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Santorum winning? In California? How... unusual!

Well, after giving him 3rd in texas, I wanted him to make up for it in ca, and I didn't want to give Paul an eighth win. However, the margin of victory is meant to show how hard of a victory it was for him to get.

Next update is running mate choices for Santorum and paul. Expect to be suprised again.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

July 26, 2012 (Des Moines, IA):

Rick Santorum: "Months after this state granted me the victory in its first-in-the-nation caucus, I return to it to announce my vice presidential selection. He hails from a state near here, and while he once was a fierce supporter of Mr. Romney, I have convinced him to join our side. With my new running mate, we will unify the party and present a strong change from the policies of President Obama. If I am chosen as the republican nominee at the upcoming convention, the next vice president of the United States will be South Dakota Senator John Thune!"

July 28, 2012 (St. Paul, MN):

Ron Paul: "Months after this state gave me a strong second place finish, I return to it to announce that I have chosen my running mate from among its ranks. He has won an election in a surprise fashion in the past, and I firmly believe he can help me do the same. Few think I can win this election, let alone the nomination, but this movement for liberty is stronger than any media figure thinks. My choice will make a solid ticket for liberty if I am chosen at the republican convention. My choice for the next vice president of the United States is Former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura!

- In both cases, these choices surprised the media. Ron Paul was seen as most likely to pick either his son Rand, former libertarian nominee Bob Barr, or Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Ventura had been considered less likely than any of those three. Rick Santorum's choice came as an even bigger surprise, as Thune was estimated by the media to only be around seventh on Santorum's shortlist, at the top of said list were people such as PA Sen. Pat Toomey, Rep. Steve King, and WI Sen. Ron Johnson, however Santorum saw the need to make some appeal to the more moderate parts of the party and the country beyond what he could manage himself, and went with the surprise choice of Mr. Thune. Meanwhile, Mr. Romney said he was still deciding whom to choose, and would not make up his mind for another couple weeks.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

August 9, 2012 (Indianapolis, IN):

"You know, four years ago, Barack Obama came here, to this conservative state, campaigned like he had to win here to win the election, and this state went for him. But now, this state has learned that it made a mistake, that voting in an untested first-term senator was the wrong course of action to take, and even the Obama campaign admits it cannot win here again! The sea tide of change to me that will take place this fall will begin here, and I am proud to announce that I have chosen my running mate from among its ranks. He is conservative, popular, and capable of leading this country alongside me. Allow me to introduce you to the next president - wait, no, next vice president of the united states, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels!"

Mr. Daniels was a bit of a surprise choice for Mr. Romney, but he had been in the running. The flubbed announcement would be spread in a viral manner throughout Social Media, but beyond that, Daniels wasn't a bad choice at all - while he did little in delivering electoral votes to the ticket, as Indiana was fairly safe GOP already, he was a popular governor that would not be seen as too-conservative by moderate voters but would not turn away the GOP base either, and he knew how to get through tough elections, having managed to get reelected in the democratic wave of 2008.

All three tickets were now constructed, all the delegates would have to do would be to simply choose one.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

8/15/2012 Electoral College Prediction:

The maps below depict an early prediction of an Obama/Santorum GE, an Obama/Paul GE and an Obama/Romney GE. The red states are democratic, the blue states republican. The 30% shading indicates a Leans rating, the 50% shading a Likely rating, and the 70% shade a Solid rating. The gray states are Toss-Ups.

Obama/Biden vs. Santorum/Thune:

Obama/Biden: 270
Santorum/Thune: 180
Toss-Up: 88

Based on polling and planned locations of active campaigning, the following rating changes have been made:

NV: Likely D to Lean D
MT: Likely R to Safe R
OH: Lean D to Toss-Up

Obama/Biden vs. Paul/Ventura:

Obama/Biden: 233
Paul/Ventura: 195
Toss-Up: 114

Based on polling and planned locations of active campaigning, the following rating changes have been made:

MN: Lean D to Toss-Up
WI: Lean D to Toss-Up
MO: Lean R to Likely R

Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Daniels:

Obama/Biden: 243
Romney/Daniels: 235
Toss-Up: 60

Based on polling and planned locations of active campaigning, the following rating changes have been made:

WI: Lean D to Toss-Up
IN: Likely R to Safe R
MO: Likely R to Safe R
NE-2: Likely R to Safe R
MA: Likely D to Safe D

(Note: Regardless of who wins the republican nomination, Obama's number of electoral votes will be different than it was in real life.)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION BEGINS!


Procedure:
Day 1: Activities canceled due to Hurricane Gustav

Day 2: Collection of speeches throughout morning and afternoon. Each speaker shall endorse one of the three candidates, however this will not be directly used to determine the nominee. The chairman/woman of the RNC and the giver of the convention blessing shall not make an endorsement, nor shall Bobby Bright, the democratic mayor of Tampa, who will have a short speech. In the evening, the wives and running mates of each of the three candidates will have an opportunity to speak.

Day 3: Collection of speeches throughout morning and early afternoon, similar to day 2. Following this, each of the three candidates and their official nominators will have an opportunity to speak. Following this will be the convention's two hour debate.

Day 4: Speeches conclude in the morning, followed by the first ballot, in which delegates shall vote as they are pledged and superdelegates shall vote as they please (The delegates pledged to Bachmann, Huntsman, and Roemer (1 each) have been released and can vote as they please). During this ballot, each state shall have one (1) minute to advertise itself to the world at large before announcing its votes. (yes, this does really happen during conventions, watch the rl convention ballot on YT) Assuming no majority is reached, a second ballot shall be held, but this time all delegates, super or not, shall vote as they please and shall simply indicate their choice on an electronic machine, the states shall not get to advertise themselves again. If there is still no majority, the third-place candidate will be eliminated, and a third ballot shall be taken, again with all delegates voting as they please. Whichever of the two remaining candidates receives the most votes on this 3rd ballot, even if abstentions keep it from being a majority, shall win the nomination.

Once the presidential nomination vote is settled, the vice presidential nomination vote shall take place. While each candidate has named a running mate, the convention is not explicitly required to go along with their choice and may force a candidate to go with another's vp choice if they so choose (ex. Romney could be forced to have Thune or Ventura instead of Daniels as vp).

There shall first be an attempt to nominate by acclamation. If this is impossible, a vote in which all delegates are unpledged shall take place. If there is no majority, a second vote shall take place between the top two finishers.

Following this, the nominated president and vice president shall make acceptance speeches, which will be followed by closing remarks from the chairman/woman of the RNC and the convention's closing prayer.

----------------------

Day 1 (Detailed Schedule; Military Time; EST):
14:00 - Call convention to order, start debt clock
14:10 - Adjourn convention due to Hurricane Gustav

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Note: To avoid their endorsement unfairly influencing the nomination, there will be no designated 'keynote speaker' at the convention, however Mr. Christie will still have a speaking slot.


Day Two (Detailed Schedule; Military Time; EST):

10:00 - Call convention to order
10:05 - Opening Blessing: Meir Soloveichik, associate rabbi of New York City's Congregation Kehilath Jeshurun and director of Yeshiva University's Straus Center for Torah and Western Thought
10:10 - Opening Remarks: Sharon Day, co-chairwoman of the Republican National Committee
10:20 - Speech: Bob Buckhorn, Democratic Mayor of Tampa
10:25 - Opening Remarks: Reince Priebus, Chairman of the Republican National Committee
10:35 - Speech: William Harris, CEO of the Republican National Convention (Supporting Mitt Romney)
10:45 - Speech: Al Austin, Chairman of the Tampa Bay Host Committee (Supporting Mitt Romney)
10:50 - Speech: Pete Sessions, United States Representative for Texas's 32nd congressional district (Supporting Rick Santorum)
10:55 - Speech: Ricky Gill, Republican candidate for US Representative for California's 9th congressional district (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:00 - Speech: Quico Canseco, United States Representative for Texas's 23rd congressional district (Supporting Mitt Romney)
11:05 - Speech: Andy Barr, Republican candidate for US Representative for Kentucky's 6th congressional district (Supporting Mitt Romney)
11:10 - Speech: David Rouzer, member of the North Carolina Senate for the 12th district and Republican candidate for US Representative for North Carolina's 7th congressional district (Supporting Mitt Romney)
11:15 - Speech: Richard Hudson, Republican candidate for US Representative for North Carolina's 8th congressional district (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:20 - Speech: Mark Meadows, Republican candidate for US Representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:25 - Speech: Dan Benishek, United States Representative for Michigan's 1st congressional district (Supporting Mitt Romney)
11:30 - Speech: John Archer, Republican candidate for US Representative for Iowa's 2nd congressional district (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:35 - Speech: Jackie Walorski, former Republican member of the Indiana House of Representatives for the 21st district and Republican candidate for US Representative for Indiana's 2nd congressional district (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:40 - Speech: Steve Daines, Republican candidate for US Representative for Montana's At-large congressional district (Supporting Mitt Romney)
11:45 - Speech: Jason Chaffetz, United States Representative for Utah's 3rd congressional district (Supporting Ron Paul)
11:50 - Speech: Tim Scott, United States Representative for South Carolina's 1st congressional district (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:55 - Speech: Sean Duffy, United States Representative for Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (Supporting Rick Santorum)
12:00 - Speech: Keith Rothfus, Republican candidate for US Representative for Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (Supporting Mitt Romney)
12:05 - Speech: Timothy Griffin, United States Representative for Arkansas's 2nd congressional district (Supporting Mitt Romney)
12:10 - Speech: Deb Fischer, member of the Nebraska Legislature for the 43rd district and Republican candidate for US Senate from Nebraska (Supporting Rick Santorum)
12:15 - Speech: Rick Berg, United States Representative for North Dakota's At-large congressional district and Republican candidate for US Senate from North Dakota (Supporting Mitt Romney)
12:20 - Speech: Barbara Comstock, member of the Virginia House of Delegates for the 34th district (Supporting Ron Paul)
12:25 - Speech: Rae Lynn Chornenky, president of the National Federation of Republican Women (Supporting Mitt Romney)
12:35 - Speech: Alex Schriver, National Chairman of the College Republican National Committee (Supporting Ron Paul)
12:45 - Lunch

Endorsements thus far:
Romney - 11
Santorum - 9
Paul - 3

14:10 - Call convention to order
14:15 - Speech: Mick Cornett, Republican Mayor of Oklahoma City (Supporting Rick Santorum)
14:20 - Speech: Chris Fussner, Global Chair of Republicans Abroad and CEO of TransTechnology (Supporting Rick Santorum)
14:30 - Speech: Lisa Stickan, Chairperson of the Young Republicans (Supporting Ron Paul)
14:40 - Speech: John Hoeven, United States Senator from North Dakota (Supporting Mitt Romney)
14:45 - Speech: Marsha Blackburn, United States Representative for Tennessee's 7th congressional district (Supporting Rick Santorum)
14:50 - Speech: John Boehner, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (Supporting Mitt Romney)
15:00 - Speech: Mia Love, Mayor of Saratoga Springs, Utah and Republican candidate for US Representative for Utah's 4th congressional district (Supporting Mitt Romney)
15:05 - Speech: Janine Turner, actress and Tea Party activist (Supporting Rick Santorum)
15:10 - Speech: Sher Valenzuela, candidate for Lt. Governor of Delaware (Supporting Ron Paul)
15:15 - Speech: Cathy McMorris Rodgers, United States Representative for Washington's 5th congressional district (Supporting Mitt Romney)
15:20 - Speech: Kelly Ayotte, U.S. Senator from New Hampshire, accompanied by Jack Gilchrist, owner of Gilchrist Metal Fabricating (Supporting Mitt Romney)
15:25 - Speech: John Kasich, Governor of Ohio (Supporting Mitt Romney)
15:30 - Speech: Mary Fallin, Governor of Oklahoma (Supporting Rick Santorum)
15:35 - Speech: Bob McDonnell, Governor of Virginia, accompanied by Bev Gray (Supporting Rick Santorum)
15:40 - Speech: Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin (Supporting Mitt Romney)
15:45 - Speech: Brian Sandoval, Governor of Nevada (Supporting Mitt Romney)
15:50 - Speech: Phil Archuletta, New Mexico businessman (Supporting Ron Paul)
15:55 - Speech: Ted Cruz, former Texas solicitor general and 2012 Republican nominee from Texas for U.S. Senate (Supporting Rick Santorum)
16:00 - Speech: Artur Davis, former Democratic United States Representative for Alabama's 7th congressional district and 2010 Democratic candidate for Governor of Alabama (Supporting Mitt Romney)
16:05 - Speech: Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey (Supporting Mitt Romney)
16:10 - Speech: Nikki Haley, Governor of South Carolina (Supporting Mitt Romney)
16:15 - Speech: Lucé Vela, First Lady of Puerto Rico (Supporting Rick Santorum)
16:20 - Late Afternoon Break/Dinner

Endorsements thus far:
Romney - 22
Santorum - 16
Paul - 5

19:00 - Call convention to order
19:05 - Speech: Carol Paul
19:20 - Speech: Ann Romney, Former First Lady of Massachusetts
19:35 - Speech: Karen Santorum
19:50 - Speech: John Thune, United States Senator from South Dakota
20:05 - Speech: Jesse Ventura, Former Governor of Minnesota
20:20 - Speech: Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana
20:35 - Evening Blessing: Rev. Sammy Rodriguez, president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference
20:40 - Convention adjourned

---------------------

Romney would spend the night celebrating his early endorsement advantage, and a feeling that perhaps he would end up receiving the nomination after all. Rick Santorum would celebrate getting the endorsements of Sean Duffy and Bob McDonnell, which had been key targets for Mitt Romney, and hoping for a wave of endorsements on day 2. Meanwhile, Ron Paul would spend the night in despair, as so far the idea that he couldn't possibly win the nomination was definitely proving itself to be true.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Day Three (Detailed Schedule; Military Time; EST):

10:45 - Call convention to order
10:50 - Morning Blessing: Ishwar Singh, Leader of the Sikh Society of Central Florida
10:55 - Speech: Mitch McConnell, Minority Leader of the U.S. Senate (Supporting Mitt Romney)
11:05 - Speech: Rand Paul, United States Senator from Kentucky (Supporting Ron Paul)
11:10 - Speech: John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona and 2008 presidential nominee (Supporting Mitt Romney)
11:15 - Speech: Pam Bondi, Attorney General of Florida (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:20 - Speech: Sam Olens, Attorney General of Georgia (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:25 - Speech: Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:30 - Speech: Yash Wadhwa, Wisconsin civil engineer (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:35 - Speech: Tad True, vice president of a pipeline company in Wyoming (Supporting Ron Paul)
11:40 - Speech: Michelle Voorheis, Michigan businesswoman (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:45 - Speech: Rob Portman, U.S. Senator from Ohio (Supporting Mitt Romney)
11:50 - Speech: Paul Ryan, U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (Supporting Mitt Romney)
11:55 - Speech: Steve Cohen, CEO of Screen Machine Industries in Ohio (Supporting Rick Santorum)
12:00 - Speech: Luis Fortuño, Governor of Puerto Rico (Supporting Mitt Romney)
12:05 - Speech: Tim Pawlenty, former Governor of Minnesota and 2012 presidential candidate (Supporting Mitt Romney)
12:10 - Speech: Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas and 2008 presidential candidate (Supporting Rick Santorum)
12:15 - Speech: Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. Secretary of State (Supporting Rick Santorum)
12:20 - Speech: Susana Martinez, Governor of New Mexico (Supporting Mitt Romney)
12:25 - Lunch

Endorsements thus far:
Romney - 29
Santorum - 24
Paul - 7

13:55 - Call convention to order
14:00 - Nomination Speech: Pat Toomey, United States Senator from Pennsylvania (nominating Rick Santorum)
14:15 - Speech: Rick Santorum, Former United States Senator from Pennsylvania
14:30 - Nomination Speech: Scott Brown, United States Senator from Massachusetts (nominating Mitt Romney)
14:45 - Speech: Mitt Romney, Former Governor of Massachusetts
15:00 - Nomination Speech: Andrew Napolitano, Former New Jersey Superior Court Judge (nominating Ron Paul)
15:15 - Speech: Ron Paul, United States Representative for Texas's 14th congressional district
15:30 - Break for Debate Set Up

16:00 - Call convention to order
16:05 - Debate: Romney vs. Santorum vs. Paul
18:05 - Debate concludes
18:10 - Evening Blessing: Archbishop Demetrios, primate of the Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of America
18:15 - Convention adjourned

---------

Debate Winner Poll:
Santorum: 42%
Romney: 36%
Paul: 22%

---------
While Santorum did manage to win the debate winner poll, he did not win it by a particularly resounding margin. Pat Toomey had given a great nomination speech, but so had Scott Brown and Andrew Napolitano. Romney had a definite edge in the endorsement race, but Santorum wasn't that far behind. And then there was the question of what the delegates would actually do once released from their pledges. As the country went to sleep, the result of the nomination battle remained unclear.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Day Four (Detailed Schedule; Military Time; EST):

11:00 - Call convention to order
11:05 - Morning Blessing: Priscilla Hutchins of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints
11:10 - Speech: Connie Mack IV, United States Representative from Florida's 14th congressional district and 2012 Republican nominee from Florida for U.S. Senate (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:15 - Speech: Newt Gingrich, former Republican Speaker of the House and 2012 Presidential candidate & his wife, Callista Gingrich (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:20 - Speech: Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida (Supporting Mitt Romney)
11:25 - Speech: Ray Fernandez, owner of Vida Pharmacy (Supporting Rick Santorum)
11:30 - Speech: Kerry Healey, former Lt. Governor of Massachusetts (Supporting Mitt Romney)
11:35 - Speech: Marco Rubio, United States Senator from Florida (Supporting Mitt Romney)
11:40 - Speech: Clint Eastwood, actor ('empty chair' speech; No endorsement)
12:00 - Lunch

Final Endorsement Count:
Romney - 32
Santorum - 27
Paul - 7

14:00 - The First Ballot......

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Priebus: The convention is hereby called back into session! (bangs gavel) We shall now begin the voting. All delegates who are pledged to one candidate or another shall obey such pledges. Each state is permitted 60 seconds to advertise itself and then must cast its votes immediately. William Harris, the CEO of the republican national convention, is in charge of keeping count of the votes, while I shall ensure that each state abides by the time limits. We'll go in alphabetical order.

First up, Alabama, with 50 delegates!

Surrogate: Alabama, the heart of dixie, the state where support for republicans almost never wavers (...) Alabama casts 35 votes for Mr. Santorum and 15 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 35 Santorum, 15 Romney!

Priebus: Alaska, with 27 delegates!

Surrogate: Alaska, the last frontier, very cold but plenty of space to enjoy. The largest state in terms of land. The home of the 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin (...) Alaska casts 12 votes for Mr. Paul, 9 votes for Mr. Santorum, and 6 votes for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 44 Santorum, 21 Romney, 12 Paul!

Priebus: American Samoa, with 9 delegates!

Surrogate: American Samoa, one of the great territories of the united states. You may think of us as just a little island but we are much more than that (...) American Samoa casts all 9 votes for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 44 Santorum, 30 Romney, 12 Paul!

Priebus: Arizona, with 29 delegates!

Surrogate: Arizona, the state that is still proud to be the home of the 2008 nominee and Arizona Senator John McCain. One of the few states in the south that went for Mr. Romney (...) Arizona casts all 29 votes for Mr. Romney! (Arizona is not a proportional-delegate-awarding state, and has no superdelegates)

Harris: 59 Romney, 44 Santorum, 12 Paul!

Priebus: Arkansas, with 36 delegates!

Surrogate: Arkansas, the state that once considered democratic presidential candidates, but now has realized the greatness of the republican party so much that it is solid republican on day 1. A state with many hunters and fishers (...) Arkansas casts 32 votes for Mr. Santorum and 4 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 76 Santorum, 63 Romney, 12 Paul!

Priebus: California, with 172 delegates!

Surrogate: California, the state with the largest population of all, the state with five professional baseball teams (....) California casts 58 votes for Mr. Santorum, 58 for Mr. Romney, and 54 for Mr. Paul!

Harris: 134 Santorum, 121 Romney, 66 Paul!

Priebus: Colorado, with 36 delegates!

Surrogate: Colorado, a state that will be very important in terms of who wins the presidency, a state with symbols such as the columbine flower and the trout (...) Colorado casts 20 votes for Mr. Santorum and 16 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 154 Santorum, 137 Romney, 66 Paul!

Priebus: Connecticut, with 28 delegates!

Surrogate: Connecticut, a state right in the heart of new england. A state, that despite being considered blue, has only elected one democratic governor in the last 20 years (...) Connecticut casts 15 votes for Mr. Romney and 13 votes for Mr. Santorum!

Harris: 167 Santorum, 152 Romney, 66 Paul!

Priebus: Delaware, with 17 delegates!

Surrogate: Delaware, a state where there never have been too many people. The state that wishes it wasn't the home of Joe Biden (...) Delaware casts all 17 votes for Mr. Santorum (see Arizona)!

Harris: 184 Santorum, 152 Romney, 66 Paul!

Priebus: The District of Columbia, with 19 delegates!

Surrogate: The District of Columbia, the home of the united states government, the soon to be home of the republican nominee, the place that always needs more republicans (...) The District of Columbia casts 14 votes for Mr. Romney and 5 for Mr. Paul!

Harris: 184 Santorum, 166 Romney, 71 Paul!

[Senator Cris]

Great TL!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Priebus: Florida, with 50 delegates! *glances at watch carefully, considering how misbehaved the state often is.*

Surrogate: Florida, the state that is so proud to be hosting this convention! One of the most crucial states in November (...) Florida casts all 50 votes for Mr. Romney! (See Arizona)

Harris: 216 Romney, 184 Santorum, 71 Paul!

Priebus: Georgia, with 76 delegates!

Surrogate: Georgia, a state that democrats make a play for every year, only to get laughed at post-election. The proud home of the Atlanta Braves (...) Georgia casts 58 votes for Mr. Santorum and 18 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 242 Santorum, 234 Romney, 71 Paul!

Priebus: Guam, with 9 delegates!

Surrogate: Guam, another great territory of the united states (...) Guam casts all 9 votes for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 243 Romney, 242 Santorum, 71 Paul!

Priebus: Hawaii, with 20 delegates!

Surrogate: Hawaii, one of the greatest tourist destinations worldwide! A deep blue state, they say, but one that has a competitive senate race this year, and had a republican governor as recently as 2010 (...) a state that everyone...

Priebus: Time! Cast your votes now!

Surrogate: Hawaii casts 10 votes for Mr. Romney, 7 votes for Mr. Santorum, and 3 for Mr. Paul, and wishes Priebus would be more patient.

Harris: 253 Romney, 249 Santorum, 74 Paul!

Priebus: I do not tolerate being insulted! The rules are the rules! Hawaii, behave yourselves or you risk being disqualified from future ballots!

Surrogate: (sighs)

Priebus: Let's continue. Idaho, with 32 delegates!

Surrogate: Idaho, a state with everything from Oregon Trail artifacts to hardly any people (...) Idaho casts 25 votes for Mr. Romney, 6 for Mr. Paul, and 1 for Mr. Santorum!

Harris: 278 Romney, 250 Santorum, 80 Paul!

Priebus: Illinois, with 54 delegates!

Surrogate: Illinois, the state that hates being the home of President Obama (...) Illinois casts 29 votes for Mr. Romney and 25 for Mr. Santorum!

Harris: 307 Romney, 275 Santorum, 80 Paul!

Priebus: Indiana, with 46 delegates!

Surrogate: Indiana, the proud home of possible vice presidential nominee Mitch Daniels. A state that has realized how bad Obama is more than any other (...) Indiana casts 20 votes for Mr. Paul, 16 for Mr. Santorum, and 10 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 317 Romney, 291 Santorum, 100 Paul!

Priebus: Iowa, with 25 delegates!

Surrogate: Iowa, the home of the first in the nation caucus and the first in the nation straw poll (...) Iowa casts 10 votes for Mr. Santorum, 8 for Mr. Romney, and 7 for Mr. Paul!

Harris: 325 Romney, 301 Santorum, 107 Paul!

Priebus: Kansas, with 40 delegates!

Surrogate: Kansas, the home of the great governor Sam Brownback, the home of the Kansas City Royals (...) Kansas casts 34 votes for Mr. Santorum and 6 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 335 Santorum, 331 Romney, 107 Paul!

Priebus: Kentucky, with 45 delegates!

Surrogate: Kentucky, the first state to be called for McCain in 2008. The home of the senate minority leader (...) Kentucky casts 24 votes for Mr. Santorum, 14 for Mr. Romney, and 7 for Mr. Paul!

Harris: 359 Santorum, 345 Romney, 114 Paul!

 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Priebus: Louisiana, with 46 delegates!

Surrogate: Louisiana, home to the great governor Bobby Jindal, a clear example for other republican and democratic governors across the country to follow (...) Louisiana casts 44 votes for Mr. Santorum and 2 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 403 Santorum, 347 Romney, 114 Paul!

Priebus: Maine, with 24 delegates!

Surrogate: Maine, the state that is supposedly solidly blue, yet has two republican senators and a republican governor (...) Maine casts 13 votes for Mr. Romney, 10 votes for Mr. Paul, and 1 for Mr. Santorum!

Harris: 404 Santorum, 360 Romney, 124 Paul!

Priebus: Maryland, with 37 delegates!

Surrogate: Maryland, a state that is close to the ocean and our nation's capital (...) Maryland casts 21 votes for Mr. Romney and 16 for Mr. Santorum!

Harris: 420 Santorum, 381 Romney, 124 Paul!

Priebus: Massachusetts, with 41 delegates!

Surrogate: Massachusetts, the proud home of Senator Scott Brown (...) Massachusetts casts 40 votes for Mr. Romney and 1 vote for Mr. Santorum!

Harris: 421 Santorum, 421 Romney, 124 Paul!

Priebus: Michigan, with 30 delegates!

Surrogate: Michigan, the proud birth state of Mitt Romney and home of the detroit tigers and our great governor Rick Snyder (...) Michigan casts 16 votes for Mr. Santorum and 14 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 437 Santorum, 435 Romney, 124 Paul!

Priebus: Minnesota, with 40 delegates!

Surrogate: Minnesota, home to former candidate Tim Pawlenty, plenty of lakes, and sports teams that will hopefully get better one day (...) Minnesota casts 25 votes for Mr. Santorum, 13 for Mr. Paul, and 2 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 462 Santorum, 437 Romney, 137 Paul!

Priebus: Mississippi, with 40 delegates!

Surrogate: Missisissippi, a solidly republican state with two great republican senators (...) Mississippi casts 28 votes for Mr. Santorum and 12 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 490 Santorum, 449 Romney, 137 Paul!

Priebus: Missouri, with 52 delegates!

Surrogate: Missouri, a state that this year will turn solidly red as Nixon and McCaskill lose their seats! Home to everything from a city split between two states to Oregon trail artifacts. (...) Missouri casts 35 votes for Mr. Santorum and 17 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 525 Santorum, 466 Romney, 137 Paul!

Priebus: Montana, with 26 delegates!

Surrogate: Montana, another state that will get significantly more red once november has passed! (...) Montana casts 13 votes for Mr. Santorum, 12 for Mr. Paul, and 1 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 538 Santorum, 467 Romney, 149 Paul!

Priebus: Nebraska, with 35 delegates!

Surrogate: Nebraska, home to farms but not much else (...) Nebraska casts 18 votes for Mr. Romney, 15 for Mr. Santorum, and 2 for Mr. Paul (remember that Santorum's ability to have full delegate slates is limited in some places)!

Harris: 553 Santorum, 485 Romney, 151 Paul!

Priebus: Nevada, with 28 delegates!

Surrogate: Nevada, home to casinos and plenty of political excitement (...) Nevada casts 20 votes for Mr. Romney, 5 for Mr. Santorum, and 3 for Mr. Paul!

Harris: 558 Santorum, 505 Romney, 154 Paul!

Priebus: New Hampshire, with 12 delegates!

Surrogate: New Hampshire, home of the first in the nation primary and the great Senator Kelly Ayotte (...) New Hampshire casts 7 votes for Mr. Romney and 5 for Mr. Paul!

Harris: 558 Santorum, 512 Romney, 159 Paul!

Priebus: New Jersey, with 50 delegates!

Surrogate: New Jersey, home to the great republican governor Chris Christie (...) New Jersey casts 33 votes for Mr. Romney and 17 for Mr. Paul!

Harris: 558 Santorum, 545 Romney, 176 Paul!

(Fun Fact: NJ was the state that put Romney over the top (1,144) in the real life convention.)

Priebus: New Mexico, with 23 delegates!

Surrogate: New Mexico, a state where we fiercely guard the border of the united states (...) New Mexico casts 12 votes for Mr. Paul and 11 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 558 Santorum, 556 Romney, 188 Paul!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Priebus: New York, with 95 delegates!

Surrogate: New York, home to tourist sites, plenty of people, and a terrible governor (...) New York casts 70 votes for Mr. Romney, 20 for Mr. Santorum, and 5 for Mr. Paul!

Harris: 626 Romney, 578 Santorum, 193 Paul!

Priebus: North Carolina, with 55 delegates!

Surrogate: North Carolina, where the ocean will amaze you and Gov. McCrory will too (...) North Carolina casts 24 votes for Mr. Santorum, 24 for Mr. Romney, and 7 for Mr. Paul!

Harris: 650 Romney, 602 Santorum, 200 Paul!

Priebus: North Dakota, with 28 delegates!

Surrogate: North Dakota, a state you may think of as insignificant but is in fact significant (...) North Dakota casts 14 votes for Mr. Santorum, 8 for Mr. Paul, and 6 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 656 Romney, 616 Santorum, 208 Paul!

Priebus: The Northern Mariana Islands, with 9 delegates!

Surrogate: The Northern Mariana Islands, another great territory of the united states (...) The Northern Mariana Islands casts all 9 votes for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 665 Romney, 616 Santorum, 208 Paul!

Priebus: Ohio, with 66 delegates!

Surrogate: Ohio, a key swing state in this upcoming presidential election, and also where Senator Sherrod Brown shall lose his job for life! (...) Ohio casts 36 votes for Mr. Romney and 30 for Mr. Santorum! (see Nebraska)

Harris: 701 Romney, 646 Santorum, 208 Paul!

Priebus: Oklahoma, with 43 delegates!

Surrogate: Oklahoma, a state that knows the greatness of republicans firsthand (...) Oklahoma casts 30 votes for Mr. Santorum and 13 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 714 Romney, 676 Santorum, 208 Paul!

Priebus: Oregon, with 28 delegates!

Surrogate: Oregon, a state that will surprise everyone this year when it goes (non-atlas) red (...) Oregon casts 15 votes for Mr. Paul and 13 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 727 Romney, 676 Santorum, 223 Paul!

Priebus: Pennsylvania, with 72 delegates!

Surrogate: Pennsylvania, another great swing state, and home to another great republican governor (...) Pennsylvania casts 42 votes for Mr. Santorum and 30 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 757 Romney, 718 Santorum, 223 Paul!

Priebus: Puerto Rico, with 23 delegates!

Surrogate: Puerto Rico, the territory that will one day be a state (...) Puerto Rico casts all 23 votes for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 780 Romney, 718 Santorum, 223 Paul!

Priebus: Rhode Island, with 19 delegates!

Surrogate: Rhode Island, a small state desperately in need of more conservatives (...) Rhode Island casts 11 votes for Mr. Romney and 8 for Mr. Santorum!

Harris: 791 Romney, 726 Santorum, 223 Paul!

Priebus: South Carolina, with 25 delegates!

Surrogate: South Carolina, the south's most treasured state (...) South Carolina casts 23 votes for Mr. Santorum and 2 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 793 Romney, 749 Santorum, 223 Paul!

Priebus: South Dakota, with 28 delegates!

Surrogate: South Dakota, home to another great republican governor, and also a potential vice presidential nominee (...) South Dakota casts 18 votes for Mr. Santorum and 10 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 803 Romney, 767 Santorum, 223 Paul!

Priebus: Tennessee, with 58 delegates!

Surrogate: Tennessee, another great southern state with amazing elected officials (...) Tennessee casts 39 votes for Mr. Santorum and 19 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 822 Romney, 806 Santorum, 223 Paul!

Priebus: Texas, with 155 delegates!

Surrogate: Texas, home to a great governor in Rick Perry and more conservatives than you could ever want (...) Texas casts 62 votes for Mr. Paul, 49 for Mr. Romney, and 44 for Mr. Santorum!

Harris: 871 Romney, 850 Santorum, 285 Paul!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Priebus: Utah, with 40 delegates!

Surrogate: Utah, the state that after this year will finally have an entirely republican congressional delegation (...) Utah casts 36 votes for Mr. Romney, with 4 delegates abstaining!

Audience: *gasp*

Harris: 907 Romney, 850 Santorum, 285 Paul, 4 Abstain!

Priebus: Vermont, with 17 delegates!

Surrogate: Vermont, a small but great state (...) Vermont casts 9 votes for Mr. Romney, 4 for Mr. Paul, and 4 for Mr. Santorum!

Harris: 916 Romney, 854 Santorum, 289 Paul, 4 Abstain!

Priebus: Virginia, with 49 delegates!

Surrogate: Virginia, a state that this year will return to a reliably republican streak (...) Virginia casts 34 votes for Mr. Romney and 9 for Mr. Paul, with 6 delegates abstaining!

Harris: 950 Romney, 854 Santorum, 298 Paul, 10 Abstain!

Priebus: The Virgin Islands, with 9 delegates!

Surrogate: The Virgin Islands, the territory that comes last in the alphabet but is still amazing (...) The Virgin Islands casts 6 votes for Mr. Paul and 3 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 953 Romney, 854 Santorum, 301 Paul, 10 Abstain!

Priebus: Washington, with 43 delegates!

Surrogate: Washington State, the home of great coastlines and too many democrats (...) Washington casts 22 votes for Mr. Romney, 11 for Mr. Santorum, and 10 for Mr. Paul!

Harris: 975 Romney, 865 Santorum, 311 Paul, 10 Abstain!

Priebus: West Virginia, with 31 delegates!

Surrogate: West Virginia, home to plenty of coal mines (...) West Virginia casts 19 votes for Mr. Santorum and 12 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 987 Romney, 884 Santorum, 311 Paul, 10 Abstain!

Priebus: Wisconsin, with 42 delegates!

Surrogate: Wisconsin, a great swing state that will soon elect a great former governor who will improve congress from the moment he walks into the senate chamber (...) Wisconsin casts 24 votes for Mr. Santorum and 18 for Mr. Romney!

Harris: 1,005 Romney, 908 Santorum, 311 Paul, 10 Abstain!

Priebus: And last but not least, Wyoming, with 29 delegates!

Surrogate: Wyoming may be last in the alphabet, but it is a great state nonetheless (...) Wyoming casts 13 votes for Mr. Paul, 10 for Mr. Santorum, and 5 for Mr. Romney, with 1 delegate abstaining!

Harris: 1,010 Romney, 918 Santorum, 324 Paul, 11 Abstain!

Priebus: As no one reached 1,144, all delegates have been released from any pledges. You have 15 minutes to choose whom you will support, and then must enter your choice on these machines that are being passed out to you now. Let the second ballot begin!

---15 Minutes Later---

Harris: 946 Santorum, 923 Romney, 417 Paul, 2 Abstain!

Priebus: Paul has been eliminated! You have 15 minutes to decide on either Romney or Santorum for the 3rd and final ballot!


--------------------

(For those of you who are wondering if Paul will try to force any changes in the platform, well, the next update will give you your answer.)

[tmthforu94]

Go Romney! Judging by how 2012 went down in RL, I imagine there would be encouragement from most Paul folks to back Romney here, but we will see!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Paul voters sat and thought carefully about their decision. They really didn't like either option. Both Romney and Santorum were too soft on entitlements, too liberal on taxes, too conservative on drugs, too conservative on same sex marriage, too hawkish on foreign policy, too liberal on government spending in general. Neither of them really met the standards the Paul people wanted. At this point, some elected to Abstain, or selected Romney on electability grounds.

 But others remembered that Romney was a distrusted buisnessman who had been unpopular as governor and was a flip-flopper who had consistently modified his positions to get what he wanted. Santorum, on the other hand, stood on his principles more reliably, had won several more elections than Romney had including some rather amazing ones in 60% democrat districts, didn't have a record as tainted as Romney's, and had run far fewer attack ads against Paul than Romney had - while Santorum had run attack ads on Paul in Indiana and Montana, in the three way battlegrounds of Delaware, California, and Texas, Romney had been the only one running attack ads on Paul, Santorum had run a mixture of positive ads and attack ads on Romney.

The Paul supporters had made their choice.

-----------
Harris: 1196 Santorum, 983 Romney, 119 Abstain!

Priebus: And there you have it! Rick Santorum will be the republican nominee for the 2012 presidential election!

*cheering, clapping etc.*

*Romney screams in distress*

Priebus: Now, let's get the vice presidential nomination done quickly, please. Santorum has indicated his preference is John Thune, so let's make things easy and select Thune by acclamation! All in favor of Thune for VP, say aye!

Paul Delegates (screaming): Nay!

Paul (running up to stage) : You really think we are just going to go along with Thune? Never! At least not until you agree to changes in the platform!

Priebus: You really think you have standing to go for such a thing? You only have 417 supporters!

Paul: That's what you think! Romney delegates, join the rally against acclamation without platform changes!

And at that point, to Priebus's complete surprise, 600 Romney delegates came up to the stage, followed by 150 Santorum delegates who felt Thune was a poor choice for VP.

Priebus: Fine, Mr. Paul. But the Romney supporters are not desiring the same changes that you are. Same for the Santorum supporters. Your plan is futile.

Paul: What I wish this entire convention to support is nothing huge. Just a single plank. Quite simple really. The complete repeal of Medicare and SS. No replacement, no selective editing, no privatization. Just complete annihilation of Medicare/SS benefits for those of age 50 or younger. And you can choose whichever VP you'd like.

As expected, those on the stage were not desiring this sort of change - The 600 Romney delegates wanted Romney's entire economic plan written into the platform and the exact statement 'The Auto Bailout was the 2nd worst act of Obama's presidency (ObamaCare being the first, of course) and something like it will never be passed under a republican president', and the 150 Santorum delegates were simply ensuring the prevention of a Thune nomination by acclamation. The 600 Romney delegates began to walk off the stage. Paul, realizing he had lost, retreated back to the seats with his delegates, and the 150 Santorum delegates followed.

Priebus: Considering what has just happened, you may as well just vote for VP on the machines. Number 1 on the machines is for Thune, 2 is for Ventura, 3 is for Daniels. You have 15 minutes.

-------15 Minutes Later------

And in a move that surprised the world, there was no unification at all behind Santorum's preferred choice (Thune).

Harris: 1073 Daniels, 796 Thune, 419 Ventura!

Priebus: Ventura has been eliminated, please choose either Thune or Daniels. 15 minutes.

-----15 Minutes Later----

And the Ventura voters, wanting to punish the convention for not implementing their desired platform changes, selected the non-already-unified-ticket almost unanimously.

Harris: 1423 Daniels, 846 Thune, 19 Abstain!

Priebus: And there you have it! Mitch Daniels is the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee for the 2012 presidential election!

*cheers, clapping etc.*

--------------
Rest of Schedule:

Break - 20 Minutes
Daniels Acceptance Speech - 30 Minutes
Santorum Acceptance Speech - 30 Minutes
Farewell Dinner - 2 Hours
Sharon Day (RNC Chairwoman), Closing Remarks - 10 Minutes
Reince Priebus (RNC Chairman), Closing Remarks - 10 Minutes
Roman Catholic Archbishop of New York Timothy Dolan, Closing Prayer - 5 Minutes
Convention Ends


----------------
The Democratic Convention the following week was not very eventful at all. Obama was easily renominated, with only 50 delegates voting for fringe candidates or abstaining, and Biden was renominated by acclamation.


The Obama/Biden vs. Santorum/Daniels general election had now begun.

Next Up: Electoral Map Update + Modified Akin Rape Comment

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

Well that can't work out well for the Republicans.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Post-Convention Electoral Map
Democrats are hoping that Santorum and Daniels are unable to work together effectively, putting additional states into play. Republicans are hoping it'll be a net positive for then, while Libertarian Gary Johnson is hoping to woo conservative voters unhappy with the republican ticket. However, polls taken shortly after the democratic convention show no drastic change in the electoral map, and only nominal third party support.

Obama: 270
Santorum: 191
Toss-Up: 77

Rating Changes:

MT: Safe R to Likely R (Without Thune on ticket, this state doesn't look like a complete lost cause for the dems anymore)
IN: Likely R to Safe R (Daniels now on ticket)
AZ: Toss-Up to Lean R (Convention Bounce/ Slight 'coming home' effect)

NPV poll:

Obama: 46.3%
Santorum: 41.4%
Other: 3.0%

Two-Way:

Obama: 46.8%
Santorum: 43.4%

State-By-State Polling:

Nevada:
Obama: 49%
Santorum: 42%

Arizona:
Santorum: 49%
Obama: 43%

Colorado:
Obama: 46%
Santorum: 44%

Iowa:
Obama: 46%
Santorum: 45%

Wisconsin:
Obama: 48%
Santorum: 41%

Ohio:
Obama: 47%
Santorum: 44%

Florida:
Santorum: 45%
Obama: 45%

Georgia:
Santorum: 48%
Obama: 43%

North Carolina:
Santorum: 47%
Obama: 45%

Virginia:
Obama: 49%
Santorum: 43%

Pennsylvania:
Obama: 48%
Santorum: 42%

New Hampshire:
Obama: 50%
Santorum: 43%

-----------------------

Flashback: MO Senate Race, August 19:

When asked about whether women who are raped and become pregnant should have the option of Abortion on an interview on KTVI-TV, Republican candidate Todd Akin said this:

"People always want to try to make that one of those really tough ethical questions. First of all, keep in mind it's really rare. If it's legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. But let's assume that maybe that didn't work or something. I think the punishment should be on the rapist, not on the child. The only case in which I would allow Abortion would be if the life of the mother was in danger."

The comment immediately plunged Akin in the polls, and, realizing how much damage this was causing their party, tons of Republicans came out against it. Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, as well as Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Rush Limbaugh, Reince Priebus, and tons of (other) republican senators and governors across the country. Members of third parties such as Jesse Ventura, Michael Bloomberg, MO Libertarian candidate Jonathan Dine, Gary Johnson, and Lincoln Chafee also came out against it, along with of course the entire democratic party. Most non-democrats also called on Todd Akin to resign his house seat and drop out of the race. At first, he refused, but a few days later, he changed his mind, and dropped out on August 24th. Republicans, relieved, called Businessman John Brunner that very night, however he surprisingly refused. The next day, they tried State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who immediately agreed to run, and she easily won a convention (held for formality reasons only) over Author Mark Memoly (79% to 21%) on August 31st.

MO Senate Race Poll (September 5-7)

Sarah Steelman: 45%
Claire McCaskill: 42%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

September 12: Embassies Attacked!

In a rather tragic incident, 2 compounds of the American Embassy in Benghazi were attacked last night, killing 2 CIA Contractors, a U.S. Ambassador, and a Foreign Service Manager. Obama has immediately called the attacks an act of terror, however they are currently being blamed on a certain youtube video.

-----------------

In the days following the attacks, it becomes clear that the Obama Administration ignored requests for extra security made by the embassy prior to the attacks. Obama pledges to investigate the situation thoroughly and do whatever he can to ensure that it doesn't happen again. The House of Representatives announces plans to conduct an investigation, the Senate announces no such plans.

Meanwhile, Rick Santorum has already released attack ads, attacking Obama on ignoring the security requests and criticizing the administration for even flirting with the idea of it being caused by a youtube video.

--------------------

Obama attacks back, saying that Santorum should not be politicizing such a terrible tragedy, and should immediately apologize and treat it as a non-issue. The words non-issue turn out to be a mistake, and they are played in ads across the country. Santorum is careful to give Obama credit for saying it was an act of terror, but has criticized the actions, from the refused security requests to claiming a youtube video as an apparent cause.

-----------------

The idea of blaming it on a youtube video is abandoned,  but Santorum continues to criticize Obama for not providing a quick answer on exactly why security was denied, and for saying it should be treated as a non-issue. Obama's only argument back is that it's a tragedy that should not be politicized, but Santorum says Obama would do the same to him in the same situation, which Obama denies, but in an extremely unconvincing tone that almost no one believes. Analysts nationwide agree that Obama and his administration really bungled the issue.

(No Romney = No 47% Video = Complete Focus on Benghazi)

All news organizations agree that Obama needs to turn things around in the first debate, pointing to the electoral prediction from September 30th, 2012:

Obama: 217
Santorum: 212
Toss-Up: 109

Rating Changes:

MO: Likely R to Safe R
NE-2: Likely R to Safe R
MT: Likely R to Safe R
NC: Toss-Up to Lean R
IA: Toss-Up to Lean R
PA: Lean D to Toss-Up
ME-2: Likely D to Lean D
WI: Lean D to Toss-Up
NH: Lean D to Toss-Up
OR: Safe D to Likely D
NM: Safe D to Likely D
MN: Likely D to Lean D
MI: Likely D to Lean D
NV: Lean D to Toss-Up
VA: Lean D to Toss-Up

NPV poll:

Obama: 45.7%
Santorum: 44.7%
Other: 2.8%

Two-Way:

Santorum: 46.6%
Obama: 45.8%

State-By-State Polling:

Nevada:
Obama: 48%
Santorum: 47%

Arizona:
Santorum: 50%
Obama: 42%

Colorado:
Santorum: 49%
Obama: 46%

Iowa:
Santorum: 49%
Obama: 44%

Wisconsin:
Obama: 46%
Santorum: 46%

Ohio:
Santorum: 49%
Obama: 47%

Florida:
Santorum: 49%
Obama: 45%

Georgia:
Santorum: 50%
Obama: 42%

North Carolina:
Santorum: 51%
Obama: 44%

Virginia:
Santorum: 48%
Obama: 47%

Pennsylvania:
Obama: 48%
Santorum: 48%

New Hampshire:
Obama: 48%
Santorum: 47%

Oregon:
Obama: 50%
Santorum: 39%

New Mexico:
Obama: 49%
Santorum: 38%

Minnesota:
Obama: 47%
Santorum: 40%

Michigan:
Obama: 49%
Santorum: 42%

ME-2:
Obama: 49%
Santorum: 42%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

(Image Credit: NYT)

The first debate is largely seen as a draw. Santorum fails to pivot to the center enough to make his ideas sound truly good, but Obama's overall performance is seen as quite lackluster.

Debate Winner Poll:
Obama: 35%
Santorum: 32%
Tie: 33%


(Image credit: PBS)

While Biden does manage to score some points on social issues, most of the VP debate is seen as a solid victory for Mr. Daniels.

Debate Winner Poll:
Daniels: 52%
Biden: 34%
Tie: 14%


(Image Credit: NYT)

The second debate seems to be a victory for Obama. Both give a competent performance, but Obama's policies sound better than Santorum's.

Debate Winner Poll:
Obama: 43%
Santorum: 33%
Tie: 24%


(Image Credit: ABC)

The Third debate is an Obama disaster. Santorum is surprisingly competent on foreign policy, while Obama messes up questions on Benghazi and China, including an embarrassing 90 seconds in which Santorum demands Obama explain exactly why the security requests were denied, then consistently interrupts Obama's attempts to dodge the question, and reduces Obama to nothing but silence as he searches his brain for an answer. The audience soon begins to fiercely boo Obama. The moderator quickly moves on to the next topic, but the incident is already burned into the audience's minds.

Debate Winner Poll:
Santorum: 68%
Obama: 22%
Tie: 10%

-----------------------------
This leaves Obama and his advisors begging for mercy as they wonder how to recover.

Next Time: Mourdock Rape Comment + Hurricane Sandy

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

October 23, 2012:

In a debate in Indiana, just 1 day after the Obama foreign policy debate disaster, Republican Senate Candidate Richard Mourdock said this when answering a question on Abortion:

"I certainly stand for life. I know there are some who disagree, and I respect their point of view. But I believe that life begins at conception. The only exception I have, to have an abortion, is in that case of the life of the mother. I've struggled with it myself for a long time, but I came to realize that life is that gift from God. And even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen."

The comments backfire badly - but only on Mourdock. Many prominent Republicans, Independents and Democrats come out against the comments (including, but certainly not limited to, IN DEM candidate Joe Donnelly, Rick Santorum, Mitch Daniels, John McCain, John Cornyn, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Harry Reid, Joe Manchin, Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, and IN LIB candidate Andrew Horner). Due to the harsh criticism, Mourdock clarifies his comments on October 25th, before issuing a full apology on October 26th. No funding or endorsements are withdrawn from the IN senate race, but the Republicans make it absolutely clear that nobody agrees with what Mourdock said (or at least, no one that talked. Some just kept quiet until the incident passed.), and the effect on races outside of IN appears to be minimal.

--------------------------------------
October 29, 2012: Hurricane Sandy arrives

The coasts of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut were fiercely hit by Hurricane Sandy. There is massive damage to homes and buildings, and election difficulties are a certainty.

------------
The next day, the Governor of New Jersey announces that voting will be extended through the Friday after election day, as does the Governor of Connecticut. The Governor of New York announces no such extension, but does say that those affected by the hurricane may vote at any polling place in the state, including those upstate where the storm is not a factor.
------------
In the days following the storm, Obama stops campaigning entirely, and Santorum stays away from the battleground states close to the storm - VA, PA, Eastern OH, NH, and ME-02. Obama immediately goes to help out with the storm, and does a great job according to essentially all accounts. At one point he even receives a hug from Chris Christie for all his help, something Republicans get mad about and Democrats hope will give them a bounce in the polls.

On the evening of November 2nd, Obama returns to campaigning, and Santorum resumes campaigning in the eastern battleground states he stayed out of during the Storm. In the aftermath of the storm, there appears to be some improvement in the polls for Obama during the final days of campaigning, but he and his campaign wonder if it's too little, too late.

Next Up: A final look at the presidential, senate, and gubernatorial polls
After: Election Night!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

November 5, 2012 - Election Outlook

These are just the maps, to give you an idea of where things stand. If I showed you the polling, it would probably give too much away and reduce Election Night suspense a ton. However, I am going to define the ratings:

Toss-Up (Grey on President Map, Green 50% on Governor and Senate) - Polling lead of 0-4 points

Lean (30% shading to favored party) - Polling lead of 5-9 points

Likely (50% shading to favored party) - Polling lead of 10-12 points

Safe (70% shading for DEM/REP, 80% shading for IND) - Polling lead of 13+ points

Grey on the Governor and Senate maps is used for states that don't have that sort of election in 2012.

Here's the Maps:


President:

Santorum - 250
Obama - 216
Toss-Up - 72

Governor:

(totals include holdover seats)

Rep - 30
Dem - 17
Ind - 1
Toss-Up - 2


Senate:

(totals include holdover seats)

Rep - 46
Dem - 44
Ind - 2
Toss-Up - 8

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

ahahahahhahahaha oh my god you're going to have santorum win this thing aren't you just the cutest.