The Romney Downfall - or is it? - and Beyond
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Author Topic: The Romney Downfall - or is it? - and Beyond  (Read 27541 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #50 on: October 10, 2014, 01:26:00 AM »

ahahahahhahahaha oh my god you're going to have santorum win this thing aren't you just the cutest.
maybe not.
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« Reply #51 on: October 11, 2014, 01:37:55 AM »
« Edited: March 29, 2018, 02:28:31 PM by Dwarven Dragon »

Election Night 2012 - Part 1

Obviously, this segment is going to take a while to complete, and will be posted in parts (due to the character limit, parts may span across multiple posts) . I have a final outcome in mind, but it's not going to be an early night. This is going to be close - in both the senate and the presidency. Wherever I can, I'm going to try to simulate counting biases of particular states, and I'll try to resemble how a real network would call the races (i.e. nothing within 10 points is getting an immediate call, and sometimes things outside of 10 points won't be called right away either) . I will provide exit polls for those states marked too close to call, however please note that these will never reflect the exact final margin of the state. (which I will come up with prior to posting a segment including a given state) For those states marked too early, I will tell you which candidate is "in the lead".

An updated map will be posted whenever a call is made. I've mixed in gubernatorial and senate calls with the president calls, so this will feel somewhat real. Before calls are made, partial results will be posted periodically. When a call is made, the state's final result will be revealed.

On the maps, Red means Democrat win, Blue means Republican win, Green means Independent win, Yellow means too early/close to call, and gray is used for states that either don't have that sort of election or haven't seen their polls close yet.

Again, if you want a short election night, try another timeline. This will be a late night, and it may not be over even when primetime coverage ends at 3 AM (interpret that as you will, but as always, expect the unexpected.)

----------------------------------

(Image Credit: mediabistro.com)

"Good evening and welcome to CNN's 2012 election night coverage. I'm Wolf Biltzer. When the polls begin to close in a half hour, we'll begin to make projections of the Senate and Gubernatorial races across the country, along with the presidency."


(Image Credit: ytimg.com)
It is 7:00 on the East Coast, and the polls have closed in six states, and we're ready for our first round of projections!

First, we project the state of Kentucky for Senator Santorum, no surprise there:

Kentucky (Final Result)
Santorum: 60.8%
Obama: 37.2%
Others: 2%

We also project the state of South Carolina for Senator Santorum:

South Carolina (Final Result)
Santorum: 55.3%
Obama: 43.1%
Others: 1.6%

In Indiana, it went for Obama in 2008, but tonight it returns to the republican column:

Indiana (Final Result)
Santorum: 55.6%
Obama: 42.1%
Others: 2.3%

In the state of Vermont, a solid win for President Obama:

Vermont (Final Result)
Obama: 66%
Santorum: 30.6%
Others: 3.4%

In the state of Georgia, it is too early to call, but Senator Santorum is in the lead. This state has a heavily republican counting bias:

Georgia (1% in)
Santorum: 66%
Obama: 32%
Others: 2%

In the state of Virginia, which also has a significant republican counting bias, it is too close to call:

Virginia (1% in)
Santorum: 57%
Obama: 42%
Others: 1%

Here's the electoral map as it stands right now. Santorum has 28 electoral votes to Obama's 3.



(not going to try to model the NPV over the course of the night. I'll post a final margin once every state is called.)

Let's now go over to Dana Bash for the first senate and gubernatorial calls.

 ***

"Only very limited details are avaliable at this hour, but let's take a look at the earliest senate results."

First, in the state of Vermont, we can project that Independent Bernie Sanders has won another term:

Vermont Senate (Final Result)
Sanders(I): 70.3%
MacGovern(R): 25.2%
Others: 4.5%

In the states of Virginia and Indiana, it is too close to call:

Indiana Senate (1% in)
Mourdock(R): 49%
Donnelly(D): 45%
Others: 6%

Virginia Senate (1% in)
Allen(R): 57%
Kaine(D): 43%

The senate map right now is:



(totals include holdovers)

Rep: 37
Dem: 30
Ind: 1

In terms of Governor's races, we can project that Vermont Governor Peter Shumlin has won another term:

Vermont Governor (Final Results)
Shumlin(D): 58.1%
Brock(R): 37.9%
Others: 4.0%

In Indiana, it is too early to call, but Mr. Pence is in the lead:

Indiana Governor (1% in)
Pence(R): 54%
Gregg(D): 43%
Others: 3%

Here's the gubernatorial map right now:



(totals include holdovers)

Rep: 26
Dem: 13
Ind: 1

"Let's now return to the national desk."

***

"We now have some exit polling for those races that were marked too close to call. Take a look:


(Image Credit: Blogspot.com)

Virginia:
Santorum: 50%
Obama: 48%

Indiana Senate:
Donnelly(D): 48%
Mourdock(R): 45%

Virginia Senate:
Allen(R): 49%
Kaine(D): 49%

-----------------------

"It is 7:30 on the east coast. Polls are closing in NC, OH, and WV!"




We project the state of West Virginia for Senator Santorum!:

West Virginia (Final Result)Sad
Santorum: 63%
Obama: 34%
Others: 3%

In North Carolina, it is too early to call, but Senator Santorum is in the lead:

North Carolina (1% in)Sad
Santorum: 52%
Obama: 47%
Others: 1%

In Ohio, it is too close to call. The counting bias is usually democratic, but it seems some rural area got in first:

Ohio (1% in)Sad
Santorum: 55%
Obama: 44%
Others: 1%

Here are partial results from the states we haven't projected:

Georgia (2% in)Sad
Santorum: 70%
Obama: 29%
Others: 1%

Virginia (4% in)Sad
Santorum: 56%
Obama: 43%
Others: 1%

Here's the map right now. Santorum has 33 electoral votes to Obama's 3:



Let's now go over to Dana for the senate and gubernatorial calls.

***

"We have another projection to make. West Virginia has reelected Senator Joe Manchin:"

West Virginia Senate (Final Results)Sad
Manchin(D): 59.1%
Raese(R): 37.9%
Others: 3.0%

In Ohio, it is too close to call, and it remains too close to call in Virginia and Indiana:

Ohio Senate (1% in)Sad
Mandel(R): 52%
Brown(D): 45%
Others: 3%

Virginia Senate (4% in)Sad
Allen(R): 55%
Kaine(D): 45%

Indiana Senate (9% in)Sad
Mourdock(R): 47%
Donnelly(D): 47%
Others: 6%

Here's the senate map right now:



Rep: 37
Dem: 31
Ind: 1





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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #52 on: October 11, 2014, 01:38:45 AM »

Election Night 2012 - Part 1 continued

"On the governor's side, we can project that Pat McCrory will be the next governor of North Carolina!:"

North Carolina Governor (Final Results)Sad
McCrory(R): 55.7%
Walter(D): 42.3%
Others: 2.0%

In West Virginia, it is too close to call, and in Indiana it is still too early to call with a lead for Pence:

West Virginia Governor (1% in)Sad
Tomblin(D): 49%
Maloney(R): 48%
Others: 3%

Indiana Governor (9% in)Sad
Pence(R): 52%
Gregg(D): 44%
Others: 4%

Here's the gubernatorial map:


Rep: 27
Dem: 13
Ind: 1

"Let's return to the national desk"

***
"Here are the exit polls for the races marked too close to call:"



Ohio:
Santorum: 50%
Obama: 49%

Ohio Senate:
Brown(D): 50%
Mandel(R): 46%

West Virginia Governor:
Tomblin(D): 50%
Maloney(R): 47%

------

The next part will take a lot longer to prepare, 8 o'clock has a crap ton of closings. And yes, GA's counting bias is that bad in RL. Obviously, Santorum isn't even going to reach 60% in GA.
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« Reply #53 on: October 13, 2014, 07:13:51 PM »
« Edited: March 29, 2018, 02:29:39 PM by Dwarven Dragon »

Election Night 2012 - Part 2

It is 8:00 on the east coast of the united states, and we have a slew of poll closings, including the battlegrounds of Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and ME-2!

And we can make several projections. Let's first look at the projections for President Obama. We can project he will win his home state of Illinois!

Illinois (Final Results):
Obama: 57.0%
Santorum: 41.2%
Others: 1.8%

We also project Obama will win in Massachusetts

Massachusetts (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 60.3%
Santorum: 37.7%
Others: 2%

Also, the state of Maryland

Maryland (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 60%
Santorum: 37.9%
Others: 2.1%

Joe Biden's home state of Delaware

Delaware (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 57.9%
Santorum: 40.5%
Others: 1.9%

The state of Rhode Island

Rhode Island (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 61.1%
Santorum: 37%
Others: 1.9%

The first congressional district of Maine and the one electoral vote it has sole control of

ME-1 (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 59.4%
Santorum: 38.3%
Others: 2.3%

And, of course, the District of Columbia

District of Columbia (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 90.2%
Santorum: 7.2%
Others: 2.6%

We can also project several southern states for Senator Santorum. First, a victory in Tennessee!

Tennessee (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 60%
Obama: 38.6%
Others: 1.4%

Also, a victory in Alabama

Alabama (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 61.4%
Obama: 37.7%
Others: 0.9%

The state of Mississippi

Mississippi (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 56.1%
Obama: 42.8%
Others: 1.1%

And of course, the state of Oklahoma

Oklahoma (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 67%
Obama: 33%

Also, in Georgia, where the polls closed about an hour ago, we now have enough information to make a projection for Mr. Santorum!

Georgia (5% in)Sad
Santorum: 67%
Obama: 31%
Others: 2%

Georgia (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 54.1%
Obama: 44.6%
Others: 1.3%

There are several states that we cannot project. In Missouri, which has a republican counting bias, it is too early to call with a lead for Santorum:

Missouri (1% in)Sad
Santorum: 64%
Obama: 35%
Others: 1%

In Maine, it is too early to call with a lead for Obama:

Maine (1% in)Sad
Obama: 53%
Santorum: 45%
Others: 2%

In New Jersey and in Connecticut, we were unable to take a proper exit poll due to voting extensions associated with Hurricane Sandy, and therefore both states are too early to call for the moment, as the early results are from precincts that are not reflective of how the entire state votes:

New Jersey (1% in)Sad
Santorum: 54%
Obama: 44%
Others: 2%

Connecticut (1% in)Sad
Obama: 89%
Santorum: 9%
Others: 2%

For ME-2 and its one electoral vote, it is too close to call, and it is also too close to call in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Pennslyvania and New Hampshire have democratic counting biases.

ME-2 (1% in)Sad
Santorum: 51%
Obama: 47%
Others: 2%

Pennslyvania (1% in)Sad
Obama: 56%
Santorum: 42%
Others: 2%

New Hampshire (1% in)Sad
Obama: 72%
Santorum: 26%
Others: 2%

And lastly, in Florida, where we already have significant results from parts of the state that closed their polls an hour ago, it is also too close to call:

Florida (35% in)Sad
Santorum: 51%
Obama: 48%
Others: 1%

From the polls that closed earlier, it is still too early to call in North Carolina with a lead for Santorum:

North Carolina (19% in)Sad
Santorum: 53%
Obama: 46%
Others: 1%

In Ohio, the democratic counting bias has kicked in, and it remains too close to call. Virginia is also too close to call.

Ohio (7% in)Sad
Obama: 60%
Santorum: 39%
Others: 1%

Virginia (13% in)Sad
Santorum: 62%
Obama: 37%
Others: 1%

Here's the electoral map right now. Santorum has 82 electoral votes to Obama's 55.



Dana has a list of senate and gubernatorial calls.

***

At 8:00 on the east coast, several crucial senate races are closing their polls. Let's first take a look at the results we already know. The republicans have won in Mississippi and Tennessee.

Mississippi Senate (Final Results)Sad
Wicker(R): 57.2%
Gore(D): 40.4%
Others: 2.4%

Tennessee Senate (Final Results)Sad
Corker(R): 67%
Clayton(D): 30%
Others: 3%

Independent Angus King is the winner in Maine!

Maine Senate (Final Results)Sad
King(I): 51.7%
Summers(R): 33.2%
Dill(D): 12%
Others: 3.1%

And the Democrats have scored victories in Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Florida!

Maryland Senate (Final Results)Sad
Cardin(D): 55%
Bongino(R): 27.2%
Others: 17.8%

Delaware Senate (Final Results)Sad
Carper(D): 65.9%
Wade(R): 29.1%
Others: 5%

Rhode Island Senate (Final Results)Sad
Whitehouse(D): 64.6%
Hinckley(R): 35.2%
Others: 0.2%

Florida Senate (35% in)Sad
Nelson(D): 53%
Mack(R): 44%
Others: 3%

Florida Senate (Final Results)Sad
Nelson(D): 54.4%
Mack(R): 43.1%
Others: 2.5%

There are several races we cannot project. In Missouri, it is too early to call with a lead for Steelman.

Missouri Senate (1% in)Sad
Steelman(R): 57%
McCaskill(D): 38%
Others: 5%

In Pennsylvania, it is too early to call with a lead for Casey.

Pennsylvania Senate (1% in)Sad
Casey(D): 58%
Smith(R): 40%
Others: 2%

In New Jersey and in Connecticut, it is too early to call for the same reason the presidential race is:

New Jersey Senate (1% in)Sad
Kyrillos(R): 54%
Menendez(D): 44%
Others: 2%

Connecticut Senate (1% in)Sad
Murphy(D): 87%
McMahon(R): 11%
Others: 2%

And finally, in Massachusetts, it is too close to call:

Massachusetts Senate (1% in)Sad
Brown(R): 52%
Warren(D): 48%
Others: <1%

From the polls that closed earlier, it is still too close to call in Virginia, Indiana, and Ohio:

Ohio Senate (7% in)Sad
Brown(D): 61%
Mandel(R): 35%
Others: 4%

Virginia Senate (13% in)Sad
Allen(R): 61%
Kaine(D): 39%

Indiana Senate (24% in)Sad
Donnelly(D): 48%
Mourdock(R): 47%
Others: 5%

Here's the senate map right now:



Rep - 39
Dem - 35
Ind - 2

In terms of governor's races, Delaware's Jack Markell has won another term!

Delaware Governor (Final Results)Sad
Markell(D): 69%
Cragg(R): 29%
Others: 2%

In Missouri, it is too early to call with a lead for Nixon according to exit polling, and New Hampshire is too early to call with a lead for Hassan:

Missouri Governor (1% in)Sad
Spence(R): 51%
Nixon(D): 46%
Others: 3%

New Hampshire Governor (1% in)Sad
Hassan(D): 75%
Lamontage(R): 22%
Others: 3%

Meanwhile, In Indiana, it is still too early to call with a lead for Pence.

Indiana Governor (24% in)Sad
Pence(R): 52%
Gregg(D): 44%
Others: 4%

And in West Virginia, it is still too close to call.

West Virginia Governor (8% in)Sad
Tomblin(D): 48%
Maloney(R): 48%
Others: 4%

Here's the gubernatorial map:



Rep - 27
Dem - 14
Ind - 1

Let's return to the national desk.

***

Here is the exit polling for the races marked too close to call.



Pennsylvania:
Obama: 49%
Santorum: 48%

Florida:
Santorum: 51%
Obama: 48%

New Hampshire:
Santorum: 49%
Obama: 49%

ME-2:
Obama: 49%
Santorum: 47%

Massachusetts Senate:
Warren(D): 51%
Brown(R): 49%

--------------------------
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« Reply #54 on: October 13, 2014, 07:15:31 PM »

Election Night 2012 - Part 2 continued

It is 8:30 on the east coast. Polls are closing in Arkansas!


And we can project the state of Arkansas for Senator Santorum!

Arkansas (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 61.1%
Obama: 35.9%
Others: 3.0%

Also, at this time we can project the states of Connecticut and Maine for Obama!

Maine (4% in)Sad
Obama: 54%
Santorum: 44%
Others: 2%

Maine (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 54.1%
Santorum: 43.4%
Others: 2.5%

Connecticut (3% in)Sad
Obama: 53%
Santorum: 45%
Others: 2%

Connecticut (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 57.4%
Santorum: 41.4%
Others: 1.2%

We also project the Connecticut Senate Race for Mr. Murphy! The results may look close right now, but based on the state's counting bias and where the votes are coming from, we can project a win for Murphy.

Connecticut Senate (3% in)Sad
Murphy(D): 51%
McMahon(R): 47%
Others: 2%

Connecticut Senate (Final Results)Sad
Murphy(D): 53.9%
McMahon(R): 43.5%
Others: 1.6%

Here are the new presidential and senate maps:



Santorum - 88
Obama - 64



Rep - 39
Dem - 36
Ind - 2

---------------
8:47



We have a major projection to make! Rick Santorum has won the battleground state of North Carolina!

North Carolina (46% in)Sad
Santorum: 53%
Obama: 46%
Others: 1%

North Carolina (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 53.5%
Obama: 45.3%
Others: 1.2%

Here's the new electoral map. Santorum has 103 electoral votes to Obama's 64.



-----------------
Do not expect the next hour of coverage to be up until at least the weekend due to my college commitments.
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« Reply #55 on: October 19, 2014, 05:44:16 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2014, 06:47:16 PM by Wulfric »

Election Night 2012 - Part 3
It is 9:00 on the east coast, and polls have closed in another collection of states, including the key battlegrounds of CO and WI!

And we have a fresh list of projections, a great number of which are for Senator Santorum, beginning in Louisiana!

Louisiana (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 59%
Obama: 39.7%
Others: 1.3%

Also, the state of Texas!

Texas (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 57.9%
Obama: 40.7%
Others: 1.4%

the state of Kansas

Kansas (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 60.7%
Obama: 37.2%
Others: 2.1%

the state of Nebraska, along with its first and third congressional districts, worth 4 electoral votes in total!

Nebraska (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 62.6%
Obama: 35.6%
Others: 1.8%

NE-1 (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 60%
Obama: 38.3%
Others: 1.7%

NE-3 (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 71.6%
Obama: 26.4%
Others: 2%

Also, victories in South Dakota

South Dakota (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 58.6%
Obama: 39.2%
Others: 2.2%

North Dakota

North Dakota (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 59.4%
Obama: 36.7%
Others: 3.9%

And Wyoming!

Wyoming (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 71.1%
Obama: 25.3%
Others: 3.6%

Two projections for Obama right now. First, a victory in New York!

New York (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 60.7%
Santorum: 37.2%
Others: 2.1%

And second, a victory in New Jersey!

New Jersey (2% in)Sad
Obama: 56%
Santorum: 43%
Others: 1%

New Jersey (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 57%
Santorum: 42%
Others: 1%

Meanwhile, in Minnesota, New Mexico, and Michigan it is too early to call with a lead for Obama according to exit polling. We already have a non-negligible amount of Michigan results due to the parts of the state that closed their polls an hour ago. Minnesota has a democratic counting bias, while New Mexico and Michigan have republican counting biases.

Minnesota (1% in)Sad
Obama: 58%
Santorum: 40%
Others: 2%

Michigan (8% in)Sad
Santorum: 52%
Obama: 47%
Others: 1%

New Mexico (1% in)Sad
Santorum: 67%
Obama: 29%
Others: 4%

In Arizona and Nebraska's second congressional district, it is too early to call with a lead for Santorum. Arizona has a republican counting bias, and also has a state law that prohibits it from releasing any non-exit-poll results until an hour from now.

NE-2 (1% in)Sad
Santorum: 54%
Obama: 45%
Others: 1%

In Colorado and in Wisconsin, it is too close to call. Wisconsin is yet another state with a republican counting bias, while Colorado has a democratic counting bias.

Colorado (1% in)Sad
Obama: 55%
Santorum: 43%
Others: 2%

Wisconsin (1% in)Sad
Santorum: 58%
Obama: 41%
Others: 1%

Meanwhile, it remains too close to call in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and ME-2:

Virginia (39% in)Sad
Santorum: 56%
Obama: 42%
Others: 2%

Ohio (25% in)Sad
Obama: 54%
Santorum: 45%
Others: 1%

Florida (61% in)Sad
Santorum: 52%
Obama: 47%
Others: 1%

Pennsylvania (3% in)Sad
Obama: 54%
Santorum: 44%
Others: 2%

New Hampshire (4% in)Sad
Obama: 61%
Santorum: 37%
Others: 2%

ME-2 (10% in)Sad
Santorum: 50%
Obama: 47%
Others: 3%

And in Missouri, it is still too early to call with a lead for Santorum:

Missouri (2% in)Sad
Santorum: 62%
Obama: 37%
Others: 1%

Here's the new electoral map. Santorum has a significant lead of 168 electoral votes to Obama's 107!



Let's now go over to Dana for senate and gubernatorial calls.

**

We have another list of projections for the senate and gubernatorial races. Starting with the senate, we have democratic victories in MN, MI, NJ, and NY!

Minnesota Senate (Final Results)Sad
Klobuchar(D): 65%
Bills(R): 30.8%
Others: 4.2%

Michigan Senate (Final Results)Sad
Stabenow(D): 58%
Hoekstra(R): 39%
Others: 3.0%

New Jersey Senate (2% in)Sad
Menendez(D): 57%
Kyrillos(R): 42%
Others: 1%

New Jersey Senate (Final Results)Sad
Menendez(D): 57.9%
Kyrillos(R): 41.1%
Others: 1%

New York Senate (Final Results)Sad
Gillibrand(D): 71.8%
Long(R): 26.8%
Others: 1.4%

and republican victories in Texas, Nebraska, and Wyoming!

Texas Senate (Final Results)Sad
Cruz(R): 57.4%
Sadler(D): 40.7%
Others: 1.4%

Nebraska Senate (Final Results)Sad
Fischer(R): 60%
Kerrey(D): 40%

Wyoming Senate (Final Results)Sad
Barasso(R): 76.5%
Chestnut(D): 21%
Others: 2.5%

In Arizona, too early to call with a lead for Flake. Again, no results will be available until an hour from now.

In New Mexico, North Dakota, and Wisconsin, it is too close to call:

New Mexico Senate (1% in)Sad
Wilson(R): 70%
Heinrich(D): 26%
Others: 4%

North Dakota Senate (1% in)Sad
Berg(R): 51%
Heitkamp(D): 48%
Others: 1%

Wisconsin Senate (1% in)Sad
Thompson(R): 58%
Baldwin(D): 39%
Others: 3%

Meanwhile, it remains too close to call in Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, and Massachusetts:

Indiana Senate (47% in)Sad
Donnelly(D): 48%
Mourdock(R): 45%
Others: 7%

Virginia Senate (39% in)Sad
Allen(R): 55%
Kaine(D): 45%

Ohio Senate (25% in)Sad
Brown(D): 56%
Mandel(R): 39%
Others: 5%

Massachusetts Senate (18% in)Sad
Brown(R): 51%
Warren(D): 49%
Others: <1%

In Pennsylvania, it is still too early to call with a lead for Casey, and in Missouri, it is still too early to call with a lead for Steelman.

Pennsylvania Senate (3% in)Sad
Casey(D): 55%
Smith(R): 43%
Others: 2%

Missouri Senate(2% in)Sad
Steelman(R): 55%
McCaskill(D): 40%
Others: 5%

Here's the new senate map:



Rep - 42
Dem - 40
Ind - 2

In terms of governor's races, we can project that Jack Dalrymple will continue to be the governor of North Dakota!

North Dakota Governor (Final Results)Sad
Dalrymple(R): 64.3%
Taylor(D): 33.2%
Others: 2.5%

Meanwhile, in Indiana we can now project a victory for Mike Pence:

Indiana Governor (47% in)Sad
Pence(R): 51%
Gregg(D): 44%
Others: 5%

Indiana Governor (Final Results)Sad
Pence(R): 50.7%
Gregg(D): 45.3%
Others: 4%

Meanwhile, it is still too close to call in West Virginia:

West Virginia Governor (33% in)Sad
Tomblin(D): 50%
Maloney(R): 47%
Others: 3%

In Missouri and in New Hampshire, it is still too early to call with leads for the democratic candidates according to exit polling:

Missouri Governor (2% in)Sad
Spence(R): 50%
Nixon(D): 46%
Others: 4%

New Hampshire Governor (4% in)Sad
Hassan(D): 62%
Lamontage(R): 35%
Others: 3%

Here's the new gubernatorial map:



Rep - 29
Dem - 14
Ind - 1

Let's return to the national desk.

**

Let's take a look at the exit polling for the races marked too close to call:



Colorado:
Santorum: 51%
Obama: 48%

Wisconsin:
Obama: 49%
Santorum: 49%

North Dakota Senate:
Berg(R): 51%
Heitkamp(D): 49%

Wisconsin Senate:
Thompson(R): 49%
Baldwin(D): 47%

New Mexico Senate:
Heinrich(D): 48%
Wilson(R): 48%

And one more call to make here:


(Image Credit: pthumbnalis.5min.com)

The Republicans have kept control of their majority in the house! An expected victory, but still one that will make Speaker John Boehner very happy!

House Majority (Final Results)Sad
Republicans: 239 seats
Democrats: 196 seats

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« Reply #56 on: October 19, 2014, 06:09:39 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2014, 12:07:59 AM by Wulfric »

Election Night 2012 - Part 3 continued

9:18



Two more projections to make right now. We can project the senate race in Pennsylvania for Bob Casey, and we can also project the gubernatorial race in New Hampshire for Maggie Hassan!

Pennsylvania Senate (7% in)Sad
Casey(D): 67%
Smith(R): 31%
Others: 2%

Pennsylvania Senate (Final Results)Sad
Casey(D): 52.1%
Smith(R): 46.2%
Others: 1.7%

New Hampshire Governor (8% in)Sad
Hassan(D): 60%
Lamontage(R): 37%
Others: 3%

New Hampshire Governor (Final Results)Sad
Hassan(D): 53%
Lamontage(R): 44%
Others: 3%

Here are the new senate and gubernatorial maps:



Rep - 42
Dem - 41
Ind - 2



Rep - 29
Dem - 15
Ind - 1

-----

9:29



We have two important presidential projections. Santorum has won Florida and NE-2!

Florida (72% in)Sad
Santorum: 52%
Obama: 47%
Others: 1%

Florida (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 51.9%
Obama: 47.1%
Others: 1%

NE-2 (9% in)Sad
Santorum: 56%
Obama: 43%
Others: 1%

NE-2 (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 55.1%
Obama: 43.4%
Others: 1.5%

The New electoral map shows Santorum leading 198 to 107!:



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« Reply #57 on: October 22, 2014, 01:05:36 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2014, 11:02:13 AM by Wulfric »

Election Night 2012 - Part 4

It is 10:00 on the east coast, and we have poll closings in Iowa, Montana, Nevada, and Utah!



And we have three new projections to make! Santorum has won in Utah, Montana, and Missouri!

Utah (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 67.3%
Obama: 29.8%
Others: 2.9%

Montana (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 56.4%
Obama: 40.4%
Others: 3.2%

Missouri (20% in)Sad
Santorum: 58%
Obama: 40%
Others: 2%

Missouri (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 55.4%
Obama: 42.8%
Others: 1.8%

In Iowa and in Nevada, both of which have democratic counting biases, it is too close to call:

Iowa (1% in)Sad
Obama: 63%
Santorum: 35%
Others: 2%

Nevada (1% in)Sad
Obama: 63%
Santorum: 34%
Others/NOTA: 3%

Meanwhile, it is still too close to call in Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, ME-2, Colorado, and Wisconsin!

Virginia (60% in)Sad
Santorum: 52%
Obama: 46%
Others: 2%

Ohio (47% in)Sad
Obama: 50%
Santorum: 49%
Others: 1%

Pennsylvania (35% in)Sad
Obama: 54%
Santorum: 44%
Others: 2%

New Hampshire (22% in)Sad
Obama: 52%
Santorum: 46%
Others: 2%

ME-2 (34% in)Sad
Santorum: 49%
Obama: 48%
Others: 3%

Colorado (46% in)Sad
Obama: 50%
Santorum: 48%
Others: 2%

Wisconsin (14% in)Sad
Santorum: 56%
Obama: 43%
Others: 1%

In Arizona, it is too early to call with a lead for Santorum.

Arizona (1% in)Sad
Santorum: 60%
Obama: 38%
Others: 2%

In New Mexico and Minnesota, it is too early to call with a lead for Obama according to exit polling:

New Mexico (26% in)Sad
Santorum: 49%
Obama: 46%
Others: 5%

Minnesota (11% in)Sad
Obama: 56%
Santorum: 42%
Others: 2%

Meanwhile, after further analysis, Michigan has been recategorized as too close to call:

Michigan (21% in)Sad
Santorum: 52%
Obama: 47%
Others: 1%


Here is the electoral map at the moment. Santorum is getting closer and closer to 270! He stands at 217 electoral votes, while Obama remains stuck at 107. While the election is not yet over, it's not looking good for Obama:



Dana has some important projections for the united states senate and gubernatorial races.

**

We have three new projections for the senate races! The republicans have held Utah as expected, but the democrats have held Ohio and picked up Indiana, making the republican path to senate control significantly harder.

Utah Senate (Final Results)Sad
Hatch(R): 64.9%
Howell(D): 29.9%
Others: 5.2%

Ohio Senate (47% in)Sad
Brown(D): 52%
Mandel(R): 44%
Others: 4%

Ohio Senate (Final Results)Sad
Brown(D): 50%
Mandel(R): 45.4%
Others: 4.6%

Indiana Senate (72% in)Sad
Donnelly(D): 49%
Mourdock(R): 45%
Others: 6%

Indiana Senate (Final Results)Sad
Donnelly(D): 49.1%
Mourdock(R): 45.1%
Others: 5.8%

In Montana and in Nevada, it is too close to call. Montana has a democratic counting bias.:

Montana Senate (1% in)Sad
Tester(D): 56%
Rehberg(R): 39%
Others: 5%

Nevada Senate (1% in)Sad
Berkeley(D): 59%
Heller(R): 34%
Others/NOTA: 7%

Meanwhile, it is still too close to call in Virginia, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and North Dakota!

Virginia Senate (60% in)Sad
Allen(R): 52%
Kaine(D): 48%

Massachusetts Senate (49% in)Sad
Warren(D): 50%
Brown(R): 50%

New Mexico Senate (26% in)Sad
Wilson(R): 52%
Heinrich(D): 45%
Others: 3%

Wisconsin Senate (13% in)Sad
Thompson(R): 57%
Baldwin(D): 40%
Others: 3%

North Dakota Senate (16% in)Sad
Berg(R): 51%
Heitkamp(D): 48%
Others: 1%

In Arizona and in Missouri, it is too early to call, but the republican candidates are in the lead.

Arizona Senate (1% in)Sad
Flake(R): 58%
Carmona(D): 40%
Others: 2%

Missouri Senate (20% in)Sad
Steelman(R): 53%
McCaskill(D): 42%
Others: 5%

Here's the senate map right now:



Rep - 43
Dem - 43
Ind - 2

In terms of governor's races, we can project that Gary Herbert will continue to be the governor of Utah!

Utah Governor (Final Results)Sad
Herbert(R): 68.1%
Cooke(D): 27.7%
Others: 4.1%

We can also project that Jay Nixon has been reelected in Missouri!

Missouri Governor (20% in)Sad
Nixon(D): 50%
Spence(R): 47%
Others: 3%

Missouri Governor (Final Results)Sad
Nixon(D): 54.1%
Spence(R): 43.2%
Others: 2.7%

In Montana and in West Virginia, it is too close to call.

Montana Governor (1% in)Sad
Bullock(D): 57%
Hill(R): 40%
Others: 3%

West Virginia Governor (52% in)Sad
Tomblin(D): 49%
Maloney(R): 47%
Others: 4%

Here's the gubernatorial map as of now:



Rep - 30
Dem - 16
Ind - 1

Let's return to the national desk.

**

Let's take a look at the exit polling for races marked too close to call:



Iowa:
Santorum: 50%
Obama: 48%

Nevada:
Obama: 49%
Santorum: 48%

Michigan (faulty?):
Obama: 53%
Santorum: 45%

Montana Senate:
Tester(D): 48%
Rehberg(R): 48%

Nevada Senate:
Heller(R): 47%
Berkeley(D): 45%

Montana Governor:
Hill(R): 50%
Bullock(D): 46%


*****

In a room in Chicago, David Axelrod sat praying that Obama could somehow prevail in MN, MI, and PA, so his mustache would be saved. In another room, Jill Biden and Michelle Obama were examining key Ohio, Wisconsin, and Virginia precincts, while the worried looks on their faces grew larger and larger. While nothing was decided yet, it was definitely better to be Santorum at this point in the night.
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« Reply #58 on: October 22, 2014, 01:31:27 AM »

Election Night 2012 - Part 4 continued

10:22



We project the governorship of West Virginia for Earl Ray Tomblin!

West Virginia Governor (65% in)Sad
Tomblin(D): 50%
Maloney(R): 46%
Others: 4%

West Virginia Governor (Final Results)Sad
Tomblin(D): 50%
Maloney(R): 46%
Others: 4%

The gubernatorial map is thus:



--------
10:30



We have two more presidential projections to make. Santorum wins in Arizona, but Obama wins in New Mexico!

Arizona (44% in)Sad
Santorum: 57%
Obama: 41%
Others: 2%

Arizona (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 54.2%
Obama: 43.7%
Others: 2.1%

New Mexico (37% in)Sad
Obama: 49%
Santorum: 47%
Others: 4%

New Mexico (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 52.5%
Santorum: 43.1%
Others: 4.4%

With this, Santorum's electoral lead is now 228 to 112!



----
10:51



We have two more senate races to call. Arizona and Missouri will go to the republicans!

Arizona Senate (61% in)Sad
Flake(R): 52%
Carmona(D): 44%
Others: 4%

Arizona Senate (Final Results)Sad
Flake(R): 50.7%
Carmona(D): 44.6%
Others: 4.7%

Missouri Senate (42% in)Sad
Steelman(R): 53%
McCaskill(D): 42%
Others: 5%

Missouri Senate (Final Results)Sad
Steelman(R): 51%
McCaskill(D): 44%
Others: 5%

Here's the new senate map. Republicans are 6 victories away from a majority if Obama wins the presidency, 5 if Santorum wins the presidency



Rep: 45
Dem: 43
Ind: 2

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« Reply #59 on: October 25, 2014, 01:06:21 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2014, 01:41:12 AM by Wulfric »

Election Night 2012 - Part 5

It is 11:00 on the east coast, and we have poll closings in California, Oregon, Hawaii, Idaho, and Washington State!



We have several projections for President Obama! He has won in California, in Hawaii, and in Washington State!

California (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 59.4%
Santorum: 38.6%
Others: 2%

Hawaii (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 69.8%
Santorum: 28.5%
Others: 1.7%

Washington (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 55.7%
Santorum: 41.3%
Others: 1.3%

For Senator Santorum, a win in Idaho!

Idaho (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 65.9%
Obama: 30%
Others: 4.1%

In Oregon, it is too early to call with a lead for Obama:

Oregon (1% in)Sad
Obama: 53%
Santorum: 44%
Others: 3%

In Minnesota, it is still too early to call with a lead for Obama:

Minnesota (30% in)Sad
Obama: 54%
Santorum: 44%
Others: 2%

In Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, ME-2, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and Nevada, it is still too close to call.

Virginia (76% in)Sad
Santorum: 51%
Obama: 47%
Others: 2%

Ohio (66% in; some (non-atlas) blue areas still out)Sad
Santorum: 52%
Obama: 47%
Others: 1%

Pennsylvania (56% in)Sad
Obama: 51%
Santorum: 47%
Others: 2%

New Hampshire (41% in)Sad
Obama: 52%
Santorum: 46%
Others: 2%

ME-2 (52% in)Sad
Santorum: 49%
Obama: 48%
Others: 3%

Colorado (64% in)Sad
Santorum: 50%
Obama: 49%
Others: 1%

Wisconsin (36% in)Sad
Santorum: 52%
Obama: 47%
Others: 1%

Michigan (39% in)Sad
Santorum: 51%
Obama: 48%
Others: 1%

Iowa (44% in)Sad
Obama: 50%
Santorum: 48%
Others: 2%

Nevada (4% in)Sad
Obama: 59%
Santorum: 38%
Others/NOTA: 3%

The new electoral map still shows a Santorum lead, but it has significantly narrowed, and stands at 232 to 183.



Dana has this hour's list of senate and gubernatorial calls.

**

We have four more democratic wins in the united states senate. California, Washington, Hawaii, and Massachusetts!

California Senate (Final Results)Sad
Feinstein(D): 61.2%
Emken(R): 38.8%

Washington Senate (Final Results)Sad
Cantwell(D): 59.6%
Baumgartner(R): 40.4%

Hawaii Senate (Final Results)Sad
Hirono(D): 59.8%
Lingle(R): 40.2%

Massachusetts Senate (68% in)Sad
Warren(D): 51%
Brown(R): 49%
Others: <1%

Massachusetts Senate (Final Results)Sad
Warren(D): 52%
Brown(R): 47.8%
Others: 0.2%

In Virginia, Wisconsin, New Mexico, North Dakota, Nevada, and Montana, it is still too close to call:

Virginia Senate (76% in)Sad
Allen(R): 51%
Kaine(D): 49%

Wisconsin Senate (36% in)Sad
Thompson(R): 52%
Baldwin(D): 45%
Others: 3%

New Mexico Senate (50% in)Sad
Wilson(R): 49%
Heinrich(D): 47%
Others: 4%

North Dakota Senate (35% in)Sad
Berg(R): 50%
Heitkamp(D): 49%
Others: 1%

Nevada Senate (4% in)Sad
Berkeley(D): 55%
Heller(R): 37%
Others/NOTA: 8%

Montana Senate (12% in)Sad
Tester(D): 54%
Rehberg(R): 41%
Others: 5%

The new senate map shows the democrats close to holding onto the senate, but the republicans aren't out of luck just yet:



Dem: 47
Rep: 45
Ind: 2

In terms of governor's races, it is too close to call in Washington State, which has a republican counting bias, and it is still too close to call in Montana.

Washington Governor (1% in)Sad
McKenna(R): 56%
Inslee(D): 44%

Montana Governor (12% in)Sad
Bullock(D): 53%
Hill(R): 44%
Others: 3%

The gubernatorial map remains the same:



Rep: 30
Dem: 17
Ind: 1

Let's return to the national desk.

**

Just one exit poll for this round of poll closings.



Washington Governor:
McKenna(R): 50%
Inslee(D): 50%

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« Reply #60 on: October 25, 2014, 01:40:07 AM »

Election Night 2012 - Part 5 continued

11:24



We project the state of Oregon for President Obama!

Oregon (36% in)Sad
Obama: 53%
Santorum: 43%
Others: 4%

Oregon (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 53.4%
Santorum: 42.6%
Others: 4%

The Santorum lead narrows to 232 to 190.



11:41



Senator Santorum wins in the state of Iowa, increasing his electoral lead to 238 to 190!

Iowa (71% in)Sad
Santorum: 50%
Obama: 48%
Others: 2%

Iowa (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 50.9%
Obama: 47%
Others: 2.1%



11:52



We have two projections for you! Obama wins in the state of Minnesota, and Mr. Heinrich wins the senate race in New Mexico!

Minnesota (48% in)Sad
Obama: 54%
Santorum: 45%
Others: 1%

Minnesota (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 51.5%
Santorum: 46.5%
Others: 2%

New Mexico Senate (70% in)Sad
Heinrich(D): 49%
Wilson(R): 48%
Others: 3%

New Mexico Senate (Final Results)Sad
Heinrich(D): 49.6%
Wilson(R): 46.7%
Others: 3.7%

Here are the new presidential and senate maps:



Santorum: 238
Obama: 200



Dem - 48
Rep - 45
Ind - 2

--------------

And yes, you are still getting a close election - even in the electoral college. The next hour of coverage should make your crystal ball a little less cloudy in terms of the final result.
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« Reply #61 on: October 27, 2014, 01:53:26 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2014, 06:49:02 PM by Wulfric »

Election Night 2012 - Part 6

12:00



It is midnight on the east coast of the united states, and we have two more projections to announce! Obama breathes a sigh of relief as he wins in Michigan, but Santorum has won in the state of Ohio!

Michigan (60% in)Sad
Obama: 50%
Santorum: 49%
Others: 1%

Michigan (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 52.1%
Santorum: 46.9%
Others: 1%

Ohio (81% in)Sad
Santorum: 52%
Obama: 47%
Others: 1%

Ohio (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 50.4%
Obama: 48.3%
Others: 1.3%

Santorum is getting closer and closer to 270, and is now at 256 electoral votes, with Obama at just 216.



We are still unable to project the following states and jursidictions:

Virginia (87% in)Sad
Santorum: 50%
Obama: 48%
Others: 2%

Pennsylvania (71% in)Sad
Obama: 51%
Santorum: 47%
Others: 2%

New Hampshire (59% in)Sad
Obama: 51%
Santorum: 47%
Others: 2%

ME-2 (70% in)Sad
Santorum: 49%
Obama: 49%
Others: 2%

Wisconsin (55% in)Sad
Santorum: 51%
Obama: 48%
Others: 1%

Colorado (72% in)Sad
Santorum: 51%
Obama: 48%
Others: 1%

Nevada (58% in)Sad
Obama: 53%
Santorum: 45%
Others/NOTA: 2%


We don't have any more senate or gubernatorial calls for you, but enjoy the partial results:

Virginia Senate (87% in)Sad
Allen(R): 50%
Kaine(D): 50%

North Dakota Senate (54% in)Sad
Berg(R): 52%
Heitkamp(D): 48%
Others: <1%

Wisconsin Senate (55% in)Sad
Thompson(R): 51%
Baldwin(D): 46%
Others: 3%

Montana Senate (40% in)Sad
Tester(D): 50%
Rehberg(R): 45%
Others: 5%

Nevada Senate (58% in)Sad
Berkeley(D): 47%
Heller(R): 45%
Others/NOTA: 8%

Montana Governor (40% in)Sad
Bullock(D): 50%
Hill(R): 47%
Others: 3%

Washington Governor (27% in)Sad
McKenna(R): 54%
Inslee(D): 46%
------------

12:22



Two more presidential projections to announce! Another sigh of relief for Obama as he wins in Pennsylvania, but we have a Santorum victory in Colorado!

Pennsylvania (79% in)Sad
Obama: 50%
Santorum: 48%
Others: 2%

Pennsylvania (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 49.8%
Santorum: 48.4%
Others: 1.8%

Colorado (76% in)Sad
Santorum: 51%
Obama: 48%
Others: 1%

Colorado (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 51.7%
Obama: 46.8%
Others: 1.5%

Santorum, at 265, is just 5 electoral votes away from the white house! Obama lags behind at 236:



------------
12:40



We have two more senate projections! The republicans win in North Dakota, but the democrats hold on in Virginia!

North Dakota Senate (68% in)Sad
Berg(R): 52%
Heitkamp(D): 48%
Others: <1%

North Dakota Senate (Final Results)Sad
Berg(R): 51.8%
Heitkamp(D): 47.7%
Others: 0.5%

Virginia Senate (92% in)Sad
Kaine(D): 51%
Allen(R): 49%

Virginia Senate (Final Results)Sad
Kaine(D): 51%
Allen(R): 49%

As long as Angus King caucuses with them, the democrats have kept control of the senate! However, the exact margin remains unclear:



Dem - 49
Rep - 46
Ind - 2

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« Reply #62 on: October 28, 2014, 04:40:47 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2014, 04:45:35 PM by Wulfric »

Election Night 2012 - Part 7

1:00 AM

As the polls strike 1:00 on the east coast, Alaska finally closes its polls!



And we project the state of Alaska for Senator Santorum!

Alaska (Final Results)Sad
Santorum: 56.3%
Obama: 39.8%
Others: 3.9%

We also project the state of New Hampshire for President Obama!

New Hampshire (76% in)Sad
Obama: 51%
Santorum: 48%
Others: 1%

New Hampshire (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 49.6%
Santorum: 48.7%
Others: 1.7%

We can also project the Nevada Senate Race and the Montana Governor's Race for the republicans!

Nevada Senate (77% in)Sad
Heller(R): 46%
Berkeley(D): 45%
Others/NOTA: 9%

Nevada Senate (Final Results)Sad
Heller(R): 47.1%
Berkeley(D): 43.8%
Others/NOTA: 9%

Montana Governor (57% in)Sad
Hill(R): 49%
Bullock(D): 48%
Others: 3%

Montana Governor (Final Results)Sad
Hill(R): 51%
Bullock(D): 46%
Others: 3%

The new presidential map shows Santorum very, very close to the white house, at 268 electoral votes! Obama is at just 240 and needs to sweep everything that's left in order to win:



Here are the new senate and gubernatorial maps:



Dem - 49
Rep - 47
Ind - 2



Rep - 31
Dem - 17
Ind - 1


Let's take a look at the races we are still unable to project:

Virginia (94% in)Sad
Santorum: 49%
Obama: 49%
Others: 2%

ME-2 (86% in)Sad
Obama: 49%
Santorum: 49%
Others: 2%

Wisconsin (75% in)Sad
Santorum: 50%
Obama: 49%
Others: 1%

Nevada (77% in)Sad
Obama: 51%
Santorum: 46%
Others/NOTA: 3%

Wisconsin Senate (75% in)Sad
Thompson(R): 51%
Baldwin(D): 47%
Others: 2%

Montana Senate (57% in)Sad
Tester(D): 49%
Rehberg(R): 45%
Others: 6%

Washington Governor (44% in)Sad
McKenna(R): 53%
Inslee(D): 47%

-------------------

1:19



Obama has won the state of Nevada!

Nevada (84% in)Sad
Obama: 51%
Santorum: 46%
Others/NOTA: 3%

Nevada (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 50.3%
Santorum: 47%
Others/NOTA: 3%



Santorum - 268
Obama - 246

---------
1:46




We project the state of Wisconsin for President Obama, but the state's senate race will go to the Republicans!

Wisconsin (89% in)Sad
Obama: 49%
Santorum: 49%
Others: 2%

Wisconsin (Final Results)Sad
Obama: 49.9%
Santorum: 48.7%
Others: 1.4%

Wisconsin Senate (89% in)Sad
Thompson(R): 50%
Baldwin(D): 47%
Others: 3%

Wisconsin Senate (Final Results)Sad
Thompson(R): 49.3%
Baldwin(D): 47.9%
Others: 2.8%



Santorum - 268
Obama - 256



Dem - 49
Rep - 48
Ind - 2

-----------------
2:39



We project the Montana Senate Race for the Republicans!

Montana Senate (84% in)Sad
Rehberg(R): 47%
Tester(D): 47%
Others: 6%

Montana Senate (Final Results)Sad
Rehberg(R): 48.3%
Tester(D): 46.5%
Others: 5.2%

Here's the final senate map. If Obama wins the presidency, the democrats will keep control of the senate. If Santorum wins the presidency, Independent Angus King shall decide Senate Control.



Dem: 49
Rep: 49
Ind: 2

---------------
2:57



We project the Washington Gubernatorial Race for the Democrats!

Washington Governor (81% in)Sad
Inslee(D): 51%
McKenna(R): 49%

Washington Governor (Final Results)Sad
Inslee(D): 50.8%
McKenna(R): 49.2%


With this, the gubernatorial map is complete:



Rep: 31
Dem: 18
Ind: 1

-----------
3:00

As CNN ends its primetime election night coverage, we are still unable to call Virginia and ME-2, which look likely to go to recounts....

Virginia (99% in)Sad
Santorum: 49.3%
Obama: 48.9%
Others: 1.8%

ME-2 (98% in)Sad
Obama: 48.9%
Santorum: 48.5%
Others: 2.6%

---------------
As the crowds in Chicago and Pittsburgh (Santorum HQ) finally began to go home to sleep, the result of the presidential election were still unknown. Depending on what happened, there would either be a narrow, narrow Santorum win, a narrow, narrow Obama win, or the dreaded 269-269 tie.....

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« Reply #63 on: October 29, 2014, 06:59:55 PM »

November 7, 2012, 4:07 PM:

Apparent VA/ME-02 Final Results:

Virginia:
Santorum: 49.2%
Obama: 49%
Others: 1.8%

ME-2:
Obama: 48.8%
Santorum: 48.6%
Others: 2.8%

The two campaigns agree that both jurisdictions will be recounted, but wishing to avoid another 2000-like recount scenario and move the country forward in a united fashion, both campaigns agree to not challenge the results of either recount.

November 9, 2012, 5:16 PM:

Virginia (Recount)Sad
Obama: 49.1%
Santorum: 49%
Others: 1.9%

ME-2 (Recount)Sad
Santorum: 48.8%
Obama: 48.6%
Others: 2.6%

National Popular Vote (Post-Recounts)
Santorum: 48.9%
Obama: 48.7%
Others: 2.4%

"And with that, we have the outcome everyone feared, a 269-269 electoral college tie! Both campaigns have already said they will not break their pledge to not challenge the recounts, and therefore, provided there are no faithless electors, the united states congress will decide the next president and vice president!"

Final Electoral College Map:



Changes to House Races:

Races won by Democrats in RL, but by Republicans in this timeline:

AZ-02
NC-07
UT-04
FL-18
MA-06
IL-10

Races won by Republicans in RL, but by democrats in this timeline:

MN-06 (OOC: I love to mess with Bachmann. She'll humiliate herself again later on....)

Final Count: 239-196 Republican Majority

Next Update: Fiscal Cliff
After: Choosing a President
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #64 on: October 29, 2014, 07:42:44 PM »

Dude, your signature is waaaaay too big.
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« Reply #65 on: November 08, 2014, 01:27:11 AM »

In the weeks following the election, both sides looked for someone or something to blame for why things hadn't gone exactly the way they wanted. For the democrats, the source of blame was obvious: Obama and his handling of Benghazi. The republicans blamed Hurricane Sandy for the presidential result, but for the senate, they placed their blame solely on Richard Mourdock. It was him who had challenged and defeated Lugar, it was him who made comments on rape just a couple weeks before the election, when it was too late to replace him with another, and had the republicans won the IN senate race, they would have had a working majority through 50 seats, Daniels's tiebreaking vote, and maybe even occasional help from Angus King. The republicans and democrats also tried to prepare themselves for the very real possibility of the 269-269 tie rules creating a Santorum-Biden Administration.

--------------

As the end of November neared, republicans and democrats approached the process of avoiding the fiscal cliff. Obama came to the table very willing to negotiate, as losing the presidential popular vote was hardly a sign that the people wanted your ideas. He was strict on two things, though - the debt ceiling needed to be raised, and a balance of tax increases and spending cuts was important.

----------------------------

The house started with an offer of $800 Billion in additional revenues through closing loopholes, a large amount of entitlement savings by raising the retirement age, a $1 Trillion increase in the debt ceiling, elimination of the sequester but the retention of all the bush tax cuts, elimination of the department of education, $200 Billion in additional defense spending, and everything else being the same. There would be no risk of a government shutdown until September 30 of the next year.

------------------

Unsurprisingly, the senate and the president put out a counteroffer - Keeping most of the bush tax cuts, but eliminating them for those making $400,000 or more per year ($450,000 for couples). The payroll tax rate would stay at 4.2%, but the payroll tax cap would be raised to $1 Million. Their plan also eliminated the sequester, while also raising the debt ceiling by $1.5 Trillion, heavily cutting farm subsidies, and modestly cutting defense.

---------------

The house reluctantly agreed to cut farm subsidies and defense, but refused to accept the senate's revenue plan in full. They offered setting the tax-raising threshold at $600,000, and only raising the payroll tax cap to $750,000. However, they held firm on only raising the debt ceiling $1 Trillion, and added a clause that would suspend congressional pay if either house of congress did not pass a fiscal 2013 budget by March 1st.

-----------

The senate and the president agreed to this offer - almost - they lowered the tax-raising threshold to $500,000. The house countered with $525,000 ($575,000 for couples) and to this the senate reluctantly agreed. The president signed the agreement on December 14th.

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« Reply #66 on: November 08, 2014, 01:57:25 AM »

January 3, 2013 - a new congress begins

House Speaker Vote
John Boehner - 232
Nancy Pelosi - 190
Scattering - 13

Majority Leader - Eric Cantor
Majority Whip - Kevin McCarthy
Minority Leader - Nancy Pelosi
Minority Whip - Steny Hoyer

Electoral Vote Official Count
Santorum - 269
Obama - 268
Gary Johnson - 1 (NH Faithless Elector)

Vote for President (by state delegation)
Santorum - 34 states
Obama - 14 states
Unable to decide - 2 states

-------------------------
Senate:

December 10th, 2012: Angus King announces plans to caucus with the democrats, giving them a narrow 51-49 Majority.

Majority Leader - Harry Reid
Majority Whip - Dick Durbin
Minority Leader - Mitch McConnell
Minority Whip - John Cornyn

Official Vice Presidential Electoral Vote Count
Mitch Daniels - 270 (1 vote from a PA Faithless Elector)
Joe Biden - 268

---Mitch Daniels elected vice president via a faithless elector!-----

Biden was very unhappy, but there was nothing he could do. Instead of a Santorum-Biden Administration, there would be a Santorum-Daniels administration. The republican ticket forced by the Republican National Convention had had no problems working together during the campaign, and was expected to quickly move to at least try to get republican bills through the senate......

----------------------------

I won't touch a whole lot on the Santorum Presidency, but I am going to go through at least 2016 in terms of elections.

Feel free to post suggestions/constructive criticism - either for specific ideas you'd like me to consider (either for the 2014 midterms or 2016) or for the timeline in general - However, non-constructive, rude criticism will likely get you on my ignore list and possibly reported. I also welcome copious amounts of praise.

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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #67 on: November 08, 2014, 03:30:04 AM »

Daniels' election as VP is pretty much a textbook asspull. Also lolsantorum
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« Reply #68 on: November 09, 2014, 09:06:09 PM »

The Santorum Cabinet

*For any senate vacancies created, a generic republican is appointed on an interim basis, keeping the senate composition the same.*

Secretary of State - John Bolton
Secretary of the Treasury - Robert Zoelleick
Secretary of Defense - Jim Talent
Attorney General - Fred Thompson
Interior Secretary - Sen. Jim Inhofe (Special Senate Election will take place on May 10, 2013)
Agriculture Secretary - Sen. Mike Johanns (Special Senate Election will take place on May 17, 2013)
Commerce Secretary - Carly Fiorina
Labor Secretary - Meg Whitman
Health and Human Services Secretary - Gov. Bobby Jindal
Housing and Urban Development Secretary - Bob Beauprez
Transportation Secretary - Kay Bailey Hutchinson
Energy Secretary - Harold Hamm
Education Secretary - No appointment (Santorum announces plans to Abolish)
Secretary of Veterans Affairs - No appointment (Santorum announces plans to combine with defense)
Secretary of Homeland Security - Kris Kobach
EPA Secretary - No appointment (Santorum announces plans to combine with Energy)
White House Chief of Staff - Jack Gerard
Federal Reserve Chairman - Glenn Hubbard

(In case you're wondering who one or more of the above is, here's what I used to get ideas for appointees:

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2012/09/10/the-final-candidates-for-a-possible-romney-cabinet-secretary-of-state-and-secretary-of-defense/ (plus the 'related' articles at the bottom of the webpage this links to)

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/stocking-the-cabinet-who-might-serve-in-a-romney-administration-20121019

)




 
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« Reply #69 on: November 11, 2014, 02:22:22 PM »
« Edited: November 14, 2014, 07:20:50 PM by Wulfric »

*Note: Unless otherwise noted, you may assume that any and all court decisions remain the same as in real life, as well as any primary/general election results I do not specifically mention.*

February 4th, 2013: The house passes the 3rd Paul Ryan budget, on a mostly party-line 230-203 vote. The senate quickly votes it down 55-45, with Senators Tommy Thompson, Mark Kirk, Lisa Murkowski, and Susan Collins crossing party lines.

February 10th, 2013: The senate passes a budget making hardly any spending cuts on a mostly party-line 51-49 vote, with Joe Manchin voting against and Mark Kirk voting in favor.

February 17th, 2013: The last of Santorum's cabinet appointments are confirmed. The senate agrees to combine defense and veterans affairs, and combine EPA with energy, but does force Santorum into appointing Indiana Superintendent Tony Bennett as education secretary. Any plans for cuts to any department are promptly kicked down the road.

March 3rd, 2013: The house passes a bill to fully repeal Obamacare, by a 254-181 vote. The senate filibusters it out of existence, to which Santorum makes a big speech in which he openly criticizes vulnerable senate democrats such as Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, and Michael Bennet for voting against the repeal.

March 18th, 2013: The house passes a bill to repeal the medical device tax and delay the individual and employer mandates within ObamaCare until January 1, 2015. It also raises the defintion of full-time under the law to 40 hours, and dramatically weakens the medicaid expansion component of the law. It passes the house by a 260-175 vote. The senate sends back an alternate version with the medicaid expansion component restored. Boehner refuses to allow a vote on this new version.

April 13th, 2013: In a rare show of bipartisanship, a discharge petition forces Boehner to allow such a vote, and it passes by a surprisingly wide 290-145 vote, with majorities of both parties voting in favor (votes against all coming from tea partiers or non-moderate democrats) . Santorum reluctantly signs the bill, calling it a step in the right direction but saying that his eventual goal continues to be a full repeal.

May 10th, 2013: Oklahoma Special Senate Election
T.W. Shannon (R) - 63%
Kathy Taylor (D) - 34%
Others - 3%

May 17th, 2013: Nebraska Special Senate Election
Ben Sasse (R) - 57%
Mike Meister (D) - 41%
Others - 2%

June 3rd, 2013: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) dies of pneumonia. Special election scheduled for October 16, 2013. Generic republican appointed in interim by Republican Gov. Chris Christie, making the senate composition a 50-50 tie. Knowing that the state of NJ will soon have two democratic senators again, McConnell declines to force Reid off of the majority leader perch.

August 9th, 2013: After months of battle and hand-wringing, the house and senate pass, and the president reluctantly signs, a budget to be used through September 30th, 2014. It only includes about 60% of the government department cuts Santorum wanted and keeps the department of education partially intact, but it does put in place measures to gradually raise the retirement age for both SS and Medicare to 70 between 2013 and 2038 without affecting those under the age of 55, and cuts the coporate tax rate to 24%. In return, the democrats are promised no further changes to ObamaCare until after the midterm elections of 2014, are allowed to raise the debt ceiling all the way to $19.5 Trillion, and Santorum also agrees to elimination of most coporate tax loopholes and a $2 increase in the federal minimum wage over the next four years.

Both parties tout the deal as a clear example of bipartisanship in a normally partisan environment, and Santorum is proud to point out that he didn't raise taxes a single dime.


(Yes, even Santorum knows he has to do some things right to get reelected.)









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« Reply #70 on: November 14, 2014, 07:30:58 PM »

September 3rd, 2013: As Congress returns from August recess, Santorum makes a bold speech in which he lays out a three-part agenda for the fall:

1) Send three constitutional amendments to the states for ratification:

Amendment 28 bans gay marriage nationwide.
Amendment 29 overturns Roe v. Wade. (Santorum is getting sick of waiting for Ginsburg to retire)
Amendment 30 requires a balanced budget by 2028, and every year thereafter, with only very limited exceptions.

2) Pass an immigration reform bill - one of Santorum's liking - massively increasing border security and Self-Deportation.

3) Begin an intense military presence in Iran to keep them from building a nuclear weapon.

September 22nd, 2013: Amendment 28 falls short of the needed 2/3 house majority, on a 269-165 vote.

September 28th, 2013: Amendment 29 easily clears the house, by a vote of 320-112. However, it falls 4 votes short of 2/3 in the Senate.

September 29th, 2013: Amendment 30 clears the house on a 300-122 vote, but falls 2 votes short of 2/3 in the Senate.

October 1st, 2013: The ObamaCare website opens, with a reminder that for this year, enrollment is optional. Needless to say, though, tons of people go on it anyways, and it is instantly plagued with crashes due to glitches that were left undiscovered during the development process due to inadequate testing. Santorum places the blame on the democratic party and the company that designed it (after all, democrats picked the release date and the designing company) , but surprisingly does hire a different company to fix it (rather than leaving it unfixed), while Democrats place the blame solely on Santorum. All this results in is a major blame game. Santorum touts that he is upholding the deal that no further changes to ObamaCare would be made until the 2014 midterms by getting the website fixed, while Democrats criticize him for not watching over the designing company during the development process. The american people are closely divided over who to blame, and neither party seems very damaged by the experience.

October 16th, 2013: New Jersey Special Senate Election
Cory Booker (D): 56%
Steve Lonegan (R): 43%
Others: 1%

(Senate Composition is now 51-49 Dem)

October 20th, 2013: The house passes a bill calling for intense military action in Iran on a 240-190 vote, but the senate filibusters it out of existence.

November 1st, 2013: The ObamaCare website is free of Major Glitches. Santorum declares himself a hero and an honest man (whilst preventing the fixing of a number of minor glitches), while the democrats criticize him for only doing the right thing in the 11th hour. Santorum receives only a small bounce in his approval rating.


-------------------------

Next Update: Election Night 2013 (VA Gov, NJ Gov, AL-01 Special R Runoff, NY Mayor)


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« Reply #71 on: November 15, 2014, 11:21:47 PM »

At least the bastard has not tried banning porn.
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« Reply #72 on: November 16, 2014, 12:42:39 AM »
« Edited: November 16, 2014, 03:50:03 PM by Wulfric »

Flashback: Results of the 2013 Primaries

New York Mayoral Primary (Democratic)Sad
Bill De Blasio - 38.2%
Bill Thompson - 28.1%
Christine Quinn - 16.3%
Anthony Weiner - 6.1%
John Liu - 5.8%
Erick Salgado - 2.1%
Randy Credico - 1.5%
Sal Albanese - 1.1%
Neil Grimaldi - 0.7%
Write-Ins - 0.1%

Runoff is needed due to no one reaching 40% of the vote.

Quinn, Salgado, and Weiner endorse Thompson. Liu, Credico, Albanese, and Grimaldi endorse De Blasio.

Runoff Results:
Bill Thompson: 50.6%
Bill de Blasio: 49.4%

New York Mayoral Primary (Republican)Sad
Joseph Lhota: 51.9%
John Catsimatidis: 40.8%
George McDonald: 10.9%
Write-Ins: 0.2%

AL-01 Special Republican Primary
Bradley Byrne: 36.1%
Dean Young: 24.3%
Chad Fincher: 13.9%
Quin Hillyer: 13.4%
Wells Griffith: 12.6%
Daniel Dyas: 1.1%
Jessica James: 0.6%
Sharon Powe: 0.4%
David Thornton: 0.1%

Runoff is needed due to no one reaching 50% of the vote. Fincher, Dyas, James, Powe, and Thornton endorse Young. Hillyer and Griffith endorse Byrne.

-------------------------------------------


(Image Credit: Turner.com)

Hello and welcome to election night 2013. In Virginia, there is a fight for governor between democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe and Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli. In New Jersey, Chris Christie is essentially assured of reelection, but what will the margin be? In Alabama, a republican runoff between an establishment and a tea party candidate, , whose winner is very likely to defeat the democratic nominee in a special house election next month, will help reveal where the soul of the republican party stands. And in New York City, Bill Thompson's second attempt at running for Mayor is almost certain to be a huge success, but again, what will the margin be? When the polls begin to close in a half hour, we'll begin to learn the answers to all these questions.

7:00:

The polls have closed in the state of Virginia. Too close to call between Terry McAuliffe and Ken Cuccinelli. Remember, this state has a significant republican counting bias.

Virginia (1% in)Sad
Cuccinelli (R): 54%
McAuliffe (D): 40%
Others: 6%

Let's take a look at the exit poll we conducted:



McAuliffe (D): 48%
Cuccinelli (R): 44%

--------

8:00:

The polls are closing in New Jersey and Alabama!



In New Jersey, we can project that Governor Chris Christie has been reelected!

New Jersey (Final Results)Sad
Christie (R): 62%
Buono (D): 35%
Others: 3%

In the special republican runoff in AL-01, too close to call between the establishment candidate Bradley Byrne and the Tea Party candidate Dean Young.

AL-01 (1% in)Sad
Byrne: 51%
Young: 49%

Here are the exit poll results:



Young: 51%
Byrne: 49%

Meanwhile, we are still unable to project the Virginia Governor's Race:

Virginia (21% in)Sad
Cuccinelli (R): 55%
McAuliffe (D): 39%
Others: 6%

-----
9:00

New York is closing its polls:



And we can project the New York City Mayoral Race for Bill Thompson, the first democrat to be elected to this office since 1989!

New York Mayor (Final Results)Sad

Thompson (D): 66%
Lhota (R): 27%
Others: 7%

We are still unable to project the races in Virginia and Alabama:

Virginia (43% in)Sad
Cuccinelli (R): 51%
McAuliffe (D): 43%
Others: 6%

AL-01 (29% in)Sad
Young: 50%
Byrne: 50%


To be continued.......
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« Reply #73 on: November 17, 2014, 03:50:04 PM »

10:00:

Still no projection for Virginia or Alabama.

Virginia (67% in)Sad
Cuccinelli (R): 48%
McAuliffe (D): 45%
Others: 7%

AL-01 (52% in)Sad
Byrne: 50%
Young: 50%


11:00:




We project the Virginia Governor's Race for Terry McAuliffe!

Virginia (85% in)Sad
McAuliffe (D): 47%
Cuccinelli (R): 46%
Others: 7%

Virginia (Final Results)Sad
McAuliffe (D): 48.8%
Cuccinelli (R): 44.1%
Others: 7.1%

Still too close to call for the special republican runoff in Alabama:

AL-01 (77% in)Sad
Young: 51%
Byrne: 49%


11:36:




And we can now project the AL-01 Special Republican Runoff for the Tea Party Candidate Dean Young. Time will tell what this means for the future of the republican party....

AL-01 (90% in)Sad
Young: 51%
Byrne: 49%

AL-01 (Final Results)Sad
Young: 51.7%
Byrne: 48.3%

-----------------
As the projection flashed across Santorum's TV Screen, he smiled broadly. The TP loss in VA was expected, the state ALWAYS elected a governor from the party that wasn't in the white house. The TP win in AL, however, showed him confidence that there was still a significant movement away from the moderates in the republican party...
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« Reply #74 on: November 18, 2014, 12:51:45 PM »

November 28th, 2013: The House just barely passes the immigration bill Santorum wanted, on a 220-211 vote. The senate doesn't even entertain the idea of voting on it.

November 30th, 2013: The House passes a reinstatement of Don't Ask, Don't Tell on a 250-182 vote. The senate filibusters it out of existence.

December 8th, 2013: After excessive pressure, Harry Reid surprises the world in saying he will allow a clean up or down vote on the Keystone Pipeline. The house quickly passes a bill on a 300-123 vote, and the senate passes it 61-39. The president gladly signs it.

December 17th, 2013: The senate passes a more lenient immigration bill, massively increasing border security but also providing a 15 year path to citizenship, on a 63-36 vote. Boehner says he will not allow a vote until the Senate passes at least 1 of the 2 constitutional amendments that Santorum wanted and the house passed.

January 29th, 2014: Santorum makes his state of the Union Speech. Having gotten exactly 0% of his fall agenda accomplished, he is not very happy at all, but pledges to continue to push for conservative principles and pledges to work for a big income tax cut and, capitalizing on people who have lost their health care plans as a result of ObamaCare, declares that there will be no more sessions of open enrollment, and pledges to repeal the law on the day after the midterm elections.

President Santorum Approval Rating (January 30th, 2014)Sad
Disapprove: 52%
Approve: 45%
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