Since the LA race will be heading to a runoff, a lot depends on how Senate composition looks on Wednesday morning. It's a strong possibility that Louisiana is the 51st seat for Republicans (a 50-49 Republican edge being the case after Election Day, assuming no other runoffs) which, if that is the case, Landrieu will lose something like 45-55 in the runoff.
I hope she and Pryor do "pull a Thad Cochran" and somehow win their races, but it's a lot easier for moderate Republicans to build last minute Black support than it would be for moderate Democrats to create a last minute coalition including conservative Whites in 2014. Nevertheless, I like the campaign Mary is running and I'm hoping we can somehow send her and Pryor back to the senate while still having a GOP majority.
If it goes to a runoff which determines control of the senate, the race moves to Likely Republican. I agree with you, in a perfect world Republicans take control of the senate while Landrieu and Pryor keep their seats.
What is you guys' fascination with Southern Democrats defeating a Republican challenger while both claiming to be Republicans?
I don't always support Blue Dogs over Republicans, but in this instance it simply boils down to the quality of the candidates involved.
The South needs good representation in the Senate, and Landrieu and Pryor have both represented their states very well there.
Landrieu has fought for Louisiana tooth-and-nail over her entire tenure and she's built up enough seniority (unlike Kay Hagan) to bring significant clout to her state's delegation. Cassidy isn't necessarily that
bad of a candidate, but he will be unable to provide for Louisiana like Mary has (especially if you consider that, if elected, he's likely going to be the Pelican State's senior senator in less than one year). Having a strong Louisiana delegation headed by Landrieu is good for Mississippi, as both Cochran's and Landrieu's clout combine to elevate interests pertaining to the Gulf Coast's environment and economy.
As for Arkansas, it really is a case of Tom Cotton being
that bad of a candidate. Anyone who voted against this year's Farm Bill should be voted out of Congress, but especially someone from a state like Arkansas with both a large agricultural sector and many food stamp recipients. Pryor, while not as visible in his position as Landrieu, has done a good job for Arkansas and I'm hoping that constituents are able to recognize that before heading to the polls instead of just voting based on Tea Party talking points.
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