IA-Marist/NBC: More or less a toss-up
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  IA-Marist/NBC: More or less a toss-up
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Author Topic: IA-Marist/NBC: More or less a toss-up  (Read 1379 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: July 17, 2014, 05:27:26 AM »

In the presidential battleground state of Iowa, Clinton is tied with Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. (45 percent to 45 percent), and leads New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie by just 1 point (44 percent to 43 percent). She holds larger leads against former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (46 percent to 42 percent), Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., (49 percent to 40 percent), Sen. Ted. Cruz, R-Texas, (49 percent to 37 percent) and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (50 percent to 37 percent).

The NBC/Marist poll of Iowa was conducted July 7-13 of 558 potential Republican caucus-goers (+/- 4.1% margin of error), 538 potential Democratic caucus-goers (+/- 4.2%) and 1,599 potential general-election voters (+/- 2.5%).

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrats-ready-hillary-everyone-else-not-much-n157821
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2014, 06:11:49 AM »

Clinton 44%
Christie 43%

Clinton 46%
Bush 42%

Clinton 45%
Paul 45%

Clinton 50%
Walker 37%

Clinton 49%
Cruz 37%

Clinton 49%
Rubio 40%

fav/unfav %
Clinton 52/42% for +10%
Paul 40/37% for +3%
Rubio 32/29% for +3%
Walker 24/26% for -2%
Christie 35/42% for -7%
Cruz 26/34% for -8%
Biden 40/49% for -9%
Bush 33/44% for -11%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2014, 06:13:50 AM »

I think it tells you something if Hillary with her +10 favorability is leading Bush with his -11 one by only 4 points.

Hillary is a really flawed candidate.
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"'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"
DarthNader
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2014, 08:49:40 AM »

I think it tells you something if Hillary with her +10 favorability is leading Bush with his -11 one by only 4 points.

Hillary is a really flawed candidate.

Obama is at 42% nationally, and the Democrats' senate nominee is tied with a hog-castrator. Given that context, those numbers are pretty good. Particularly the favorables. 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2014, 09:08:28 AM »

I think it tells you something if Hillary with her +10 favorability is leading Bush with his -11 one by only 4 points.

Hillary is a really flawed candidate.

Hillary is not really flawed. Tongue
She is just no Obama. Who was by far the greatest presidential candidate of any party since Bobby & John Kennedy.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2014, 02:56:27 PM »

I think it tells you something if Hillary with her +10 favorability is leading Bush with his -11 one by only 4 points.

Hillary is a really flawed candidate.

When judging the quality of a candidate, you should probably look at the totality of the evidence, not base it solely on a single NBC/Marist poll of Iowa.

For example, how exactly does this, this, or this jive with your notion that Hillary is a flawed candidate?
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Never
Never Convinced
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2014, 04:20:00 PM »

I think it tells you something if Hillary with her +10 favorability is leading Bush with his -11 one by only 4 points.

Hillary is a really flawed candidate.

When judging the quality of a candidate, you should probably look at the totality of the evidence, not base it solely on a single NBC/Marist poll of Iowa.

For example, how exactly does this, this, or this jive with your notion that Hillary is a flawed candidate?

In light of her favorability rating, I don't think Clinton's narrow lead against Bush should be attributed to flaws, rather, polarization is probably where the blame should be laid.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2014, 09:44:28 PM »

Rand Paul proves his worth once again by continually taking the top of the GOP field. BAM!
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jeron
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« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2014, 05:58:53 AM »

I think it tells you something if Hillary with her +10 favorability is leading Bush with his -11 one by only 4 points.

Hillary is a really flawed candidate.

Hillary is not really flawed. Tongue
She is just no Obama. Who was by far the greatest presidential candidate of any party since Bobby & John Kennedy.

Was Obama a better candidate than Reagan? I don't think so. Obama fared pretty poorly among working class whites. Compared to other Democrats, Obama overperformed in the big cities and underperformed in the small towns.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2014, 06:07:05 AM »

I think it tells you something if Hillary with her +10 favorability is leading Bush with his -11 one by only 4 points.

Hillary is a really flawed candidate.

Hillary is not really flawed. Tongue
She is just no Obama. Who was by far the greatest presidential candidate of any party since Bobby & John Kennedy.

Was Obama a better candidate than Reagan? I don't think so. Obama fared pretty poorly among working class whites. Compared to other Democrats, Obama overperformed in the big cities and underperformed in the small towns.
I actually think he was about on par with Reagan. The only reason Reagan fared so much better than Obama electorally is because the country was far less polarized in 1980 than in 2008. And he wasn't black. But mostly the first one.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2014, 02:48:31 PM »

Nice to see Christie recovering.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2014, 06:08:52 PM »

Taking all of the recent GE state polling in totality, it looks like, at least at the moment, Huckabee is the strongest GOP candidate in the South, while Paul is the strongest outside the South.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2014, 08:01:32 PM »

I think it tells you something if Hillary with her +10 favorability is leading Bush with his -11 one by only 4 points.

Hillary is a really flawed candidate.

Hillary is not really flawed. Tongue
She is just no Obama. Who was by far the greatest presidential candidate of any party since Bobby & John Kennedy.

Was Obama a better candidate than Reagan? I don't think so. Obama fared pretty poorly among working class whites. Compared to other Democrats, Obama overperformed in the big cities and underperformed in the small towns.

Barack Obama is the ultimate urban-suburban candidate, someone at his best wowing big crowds but ineffective otherwise. He wins because Suburbia has become increasingly urban while losing its rural characteristics.

He won because he picked off much of the vote that Republicans used to count on in Suburbia.  The suburbs in which he fared worst were the newest ones, those that still had some bucolic qualities (Dallas, Houston, Atlanta).
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2014, 06:10:12 PM »

Iowa would be viewed as a "blue state" if it had carried for Kerry in 2004.  I view it a bit flukish that it didn't, as Iowa has always been a bit dovish, and Bush was vulnerable on the war.  Iowa was one of Mondale's best states, and was a Dukakis state in 1988.  It is significantly more blue than, say, Ohio, in that it has gone for Democrats in losing years.
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