How in the world is Begich holding on so far?

[Free Bird]

No matter what Nate Silver and his robotic fixation on numbers and not mood tells you, Alaska is a blood-red state. Ted Stevens, who had been in the Senate for 40 years at that point, only BARELY lost in 2008 because of a corruption trial and an overall titan sized Democrat year that would make even Levi scared. The question six years later is this: How is Mark Begich (or as Dick Morris insists on calling him, Begish), a Democrat (DINO, but a Democrat nonetheless) doing as well as he is poll wise in this state? I know Alaska polls are garbage, but even then, a Democrat should not be leading there under any circumstances.

[Brittain33]

The New York Times had an article a few weeks ago about how strongly Begich has worked the Alaskan Native community over the last few years, and is now staffing up for the election.

[SWE]

He's running the best campaign of any (atlas) blue state Democrat.

[Never]

Begich is running a strong campaign, but considering how close the race was in 2008 in a favorable Democratic climate, I have my doubts that he has the ability to hold on in a more Republican year like this. Still, the polls in the state aren't worth much accuracy-wise, and without that information, it's hard to say who will win in this race. I think that Sullivan would have a slight edge if he ends up as the nominee, but Treadwell might not. This race is definitely a tossup, and one of the hardest ones to predict this year in my view. 

[Free Bird]

That's a shame considering how vital it is.

[NHLiberal]

Because he's been a really good Senator?

[illegaloperation]

Oh, there's an array of reasons.

1. Alaska is a very elastic state. Retail politics is still gold and Begich has a winning personality.

2. Alaskans are dependent on the federal government and don't vilify it.

3. Alaskans care very much about local issues and on those issues Begich is rock solid.

4. Alaskans resent big money from the lower 49 (they hate the Koch brothers).

5. Alaska is socially liberal. God, gay marriages, religions, and abortion doesn't matter much.

6. Alaskans want seniority: they rarely throw out incumbents.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Ted Stevens barely lost because he was a popular moderate senator with an incumbency advantage, and the ethics probe did not find anything damning. Begich's opponent will not enjoy those same advantages.

[Free Bird]

Because he's been a really good Senator?

In your "Live-in-a-light-blue-state"
opinion

[Free Bird]

Ted Stevens barely lost because he was a popular moderate senator with an incumbency advantage, and the ethics probe did not find anything damning. Begich's opponent will not enjoy those same advantages.

Why did he lose with all that going for him? Sorry, it's my fault I can't interpret

[MalaspinaGold]

...umm strong popular moderate democratic challenger +ethics probe+ democratic landslide year?

[Free Bird]

...umm strong popular moderate democratic challenger +ethics probe+ democratic landslide year?

Those were the reasons I listed. But people through the whole state knew who "Beggish" was and approved of him over a man they had trusted for over 40 years? I'm genuinely, non-condescendingly curious.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

...umm strong popular moderate democratic challenger +ethics probe+ democratic landslide year?

Those were the reasons I listed. But people through the whole state knew who "Beggish" was and approved of him over a man they had trusted for over 40 years? I'm genuinely, non-condescendingly curious.

The ethics probe and GOP dissatisfaction was enough to put Begich over the edge. Palin may have been a factor working against Begich as well, driving up Republican turnout. Begich held wide-margins over Stevens before her selection and Obama was polling competitively in the state.

[Brittain33]

The case against Stevens looked more damning before the election than it turned out to be.

[Miles]

He's running one of the better campaigns of the vulnerable incumbents. I always attributed his underperformance in 2008 to AK's tendency to be a pro-incumbent state.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I've actually met Begich a few times at fundraisers (obviously outside of Alaska ).  All I can say is that if you watch the man work a room, you'll understand why he's got the edge in his race.  He is one of the most talented retail politicians I've ever seen in action.  Begich has also run a number of excellent ads and been great about constituent service. 

[Never]

I've actually met Begich a few times at fundraisers (obviously outside of Alaska ).  All I can say is that if you watch the man work a room, you'll understand why he's got the edge in his race.  He is one of the most talented retail politicians I've ever seen in action.  Begich has also run a number of excellent ads and been great about constituent service. 

Wow, it's so neat that you've met him! Retail politics definitely works wonders, and if that is one of Begich's strengths, it would definitely explain why he is still keeping his Senate race competitive.

[Free Bird]

I will not deny for one second that Begich is a talented man. Not having a degree , but still rising to this high a position after only 20 years in public service is impressive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because as you see, anyone other than Frank Murkowski, gotton the good to go on reelection. Begich like Knowles have protected the oil interest of AK without gunning for environmentalist. And Keystone whether it is passed before or after the election, Alaskians believe in him

[Orser67]

He's a fairly well-liked, moderate incumbent in a small, elastic state, benefiting from a contested Republican primary.

Here's a pretty cool article about his outreach in remote parts of Alaska:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/29/us/past-roads-end-democrats-dig-for-native-votes.html

[dmmidmi]

No matter what Nate Silver and his robotic fixation on numbers and not mood tells you, Alaska is a blood-red state. Ted Stevens, who had been in the Senate for 40 years at that point, only BARELY lost in 2008 because of a corruption trial and an overall titan sized Democrat year that would make even Levi scared. The question six years later is this: How is Mark Begich (or as Dick Morris insists on calling him, Begish), a Democrat (DINO, but a Democrat nonetheless) doing as well as he is poll wise in this state? I know Alaska polls are garbage, but even then, a Democrat should not be leading there under any circumstances.

You're going to have to explain exactly what this has to do with that state's voters sending Republicans or Democrats to the Senate.

[Free Bird]

No matter what Nate Silver and his robotic fixation on numbers and not mood tells you, Alaska is a blood-red state. Ted Stevens, who had been in the Senate for 40 years at that point, only BARELY lost in 2008 because of a corruption trial and an overall titan sized Democrat year that would make even Levi scared. The question six years later is this: How is Mark Begich (or as Dick Morris insists on calling him, Begish), a Democrat (DINO, but a Democrat nonetheless) doing as well as he is poll wise in this state? I know Alaska polls are garbage, but even then, a Democrat should not be leading there under any circumstances.

You're going to have to explain exactly what this has to do with that state's voters sending Republicans or Democrats to the Senate.

With every other race, be it governor, senate, president, whatever, Republicans mostly win in Alaska. I find 2008 to be an extremely circumstantial fluke.

[Badger]

The New York Times had an article a few weeks ago about how strongly Begich has worked the Alaskan Native community over the last few years, and is now staffing up for the election.

This and the reasons illegal operation put in his post. I'd also add that Begich was a popular mayor in Anchorage and probably has a stronger base than most Democrats in that very politically swingy city.

That said, i'd like to see polls after the primary (and the ineviable post-primary bump for the eventual winner). Most non-Joe Miller Republicans will come home regadless of who they support in the primary, and I just don't see Miller winnning or runnning as an independent.