The surprises of the Senate elections...

[Dixie Reborn]

Still sticking to my initial assessment, with some changes:  Hagan loses by a more substantial margin than Landrieu

The Libertarian in that race has basically guaranteed a Hagan victory.

The Libertarian in this race is even more of a joke than the average Libertarian party nominee.

[porky88]

South Dakota, Georgia, and North Carolina seem like they could surprise.

It's hard to believe Kay Hagan is so far ahead in North Carolina. She's done a good job of localizing the election.

Perdue doesn't seem to be running a very good campaign, while Michelle Nunn is. I don't know if that means anything in Georgia, though. I think it's heading to a runoff.

Rounds losing in South Dakota would be a major surprise. I know one poll puts Pressler within three. I want to see another before jumping to conclusions, but Pressler would be a friendlier senator to the democrats than obviously Rounds. Democrats have to realize that, right?

[porky88]

South Dakota, Georgia, and North Carolina seem like they could surprise.

It's hard to believe Kay Hagan is so far ahead in North Carolina. She's done a good job of localizing the election.

Perdue doesn't seem to be running a very good campaign, while Michelle Nunn is. I don't know if that means anything in Georgia, though. I think it's heading to a runoff.

Rounds losing in South Dakota would be a major surprise. I know one poll puts Pressler within three. I want to see another before jumping to conclusions, but Pressler would be a friendlier senator to the democrats than obviously Rounds. Democrats have to realize that, right?

Not sure what you're talking about, here.

You live in the state, so you'd have a better outlook, but I was under the impression he wasn't running a great campaign. Perhaps I'm mistaken, though. He seems to be underperforming in the polls. The RCP average has him up by about three points. That isn't very good for a Republican in Georgia.

The outsourcing comments came back to haunt him, and his response was to attack Obama and Harry Reid. I recall reading that Nunn was an attack dog in the first debate (probably because she’s trailing) and Perdue looked too complacent. Even a three-point victory by Perdue would be less than I imagine, in what should be a Republican year.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

1. The Illinois Senate Race won't be called right at poll closing time.
2. Larry Pressler will get close to 20% in SD
3. The Warner race will take over an hour to call due to VA's obsession with reporting the most republican votes first.
4. Walsh, Tennant, and Weiland will all lose by double digits.
5. Scott Brown will get closer to beating Shaheen than Sununu did in '08.
6. Merkley will win by 15 points or so.
7. Franken will not manage a double-digit margin of victory.
8. Landrieu will manage ~47% in LA, coming very close to avoiding a runoff but not quite reaching the 50% threshold. Then in the Runoff she'll lose by 2-5.
9. Perdue/Kingston will narrowly avoid a december runoff in GA.
10. McConnell will win, but the race won't be called until >75% of the vote is in, much to the surprise of Larry Sabato.

Checking for accuracy:

1. Yes, on AP
2. Yes, he got 17%
3. It took a while to call due to the closeness of the race, not just the counting bias.
4. True for the last two. Walsh dropped out.
5. Yes
6. Underestimation, Merkley won by 19.
7. Nope, Franken won by 10.24%
8. Nope, only managed 42% in the jungle and lost by 12 in the runoff.
9. Avoided Runoff by 3 points, so not all that narrow.
10. LOL No.

So:

2, 5 were correct
1, 3, 4, 7, 9 were partially/close to correct
6, 8, 10 were clearly wrong.