OK: Rasmussen: Gov. Mary Fallin (R) leads by only 5

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Oklahoma Governor by Rasmussen on 2014-07-16

Summary: D: 40%, R: 45%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Wow, this is interesting.

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[Miles]

Wow.

Fallin's really fallin'.

Makes you wonder how Boren would be doing if he ran.

[Maxwell]

Joe Dorman is a fairly good Democratic candidate. He's hitting on the right issues, and maybe it's just word around town, but from people I talk to, Fallin has a really negative reception down here.

I know I'm voting for Dorman, so maybe there's hope.

I hope this gets PPP or some more reputable source polls this race.

[Tender Branson]

Now that OK-Gov. has been polled, there's only 1 unpolled state left: Vermont.

[IceSpear]

Joe Dorman is a fairly good Democratic candidate. He's hitting on the right issues, and maybe it's just word around town, but from people I talk to, Fallin has a really negative reception down here.

I know I'm voting for Dorman, so maybe there's hope.

I hope this gets PPP or some more reputable source polls this race.

I'm surprised there are libertarians in Oklahoma.

But yeah, unfortunately, I doubt anyone's going to bother to poll Oklahoma. For all of Ras's faults, at least he polls a lot of races nobody else will. It would be nice to have someone else confirm or deny this though.

[Adam Griffin]

First Kansas, now Oklahoma. Something's in the air - maybe a repudiation of extremist right-wing behavior?

[NHLiberal]

Still Safe R or time to reevaluate? Maybe I'll wait until another poll.

First Kansas, now Oklahoma. Something's in the air - maybe a repudiation of extremist right-wing behavior?

Don't forget about Nebraska

[user12345]

If Mary Fallin is only leading her Democratic challenger by 5% in a super conservative state, I think Republican governors in more liberal states should be worried too.

[sg0508]

I don't know about her stances, but when you get an 'extreme' type in the statehouse, especially when it's the majority party in control (within the state), sometimes it backfires.  That's often why you see many more successful minority party governors who govern from the middle (i.e. Henry, Bredesen, Rell, Douglas, etc, etc).

[badgate]

Wonderful news! Go Dorman!

[Panda Express]

Looks like pretty much every governorship is a toss-up this year.

[Reginald]

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Interesting to see the low percentage here. Not for the Democrats obviously; that occurs all the time in Oklahoma. The Republicans being so lukewarm about Fallin seems to be the key.

Anyway, a Dem internal was leaked back in March showing Fallin up by 7, so there is some precedent FWIW:



Excellent to see more signs of this, even if it is Rasmussen. Definitely making me consider switching my registration to where the Democrat isn't a hopeless failure.

[Maxwell]

70% of Democrats being for Dorman actually seems pretty good.

[NHLiberal]

Looks like pretty much every governorship is a toss-up this year.

What I've been saying all along

[Never]

Are we taking into account that this is Rasmussen? I don't really take their polls at face value. Fallin has weaknesses, but I think that she is going to win by more than 5, especially when Republican governors in Atlas red states are still holding on. If this were 2006, I'd say this poll is about right, but it's not going to be a great Democratic year nationally.

[cbannon5]

Are we taking into account that this is Rasmussen? I don't really take their polls at face value. Fallin has weaknesses, but I think that she is going to win by more than 5, especially when Republican governors in Atlas red states are still holding on. If this were 2006, I'd say this poll is about right, but it's not going to be a great Democratic year nationally.

Oklahoma has a history of electing Democrats to the Governorship based upon concerns about education within the State.  Brad Henry (D) was elected Governor of Oklahoma in 2002, a year in which the GOP gained 2 Senate seats and 8 House seats.  His campaign was largely based upon education.  This year there is a very competitive State Superintendent Race.  The key for Dorman will be to raise enough money to compete with Fallin's war chest. 

[Maxwell]

Are we taking into account that this is Rasmussen? I don't really take their polls at face value. Fallin has weaknesses, but I think that she is going to win by more than 5, especially when Republican governors in Atlas red states are still holding on. If this were 2006, I'd say this poll is about right, but it's not going to be a great Democratic year nationally.

Fair enough. This year may be enough to keep Dorman out of the Governors mansion anyways. But Dorman is a good candidate, he's focusing on the right issues, and knocking Fallin without being too vicious and scaring off potential Republican or Independent Dorman voters. I hope he can beat her, but I'm still not confident.

[LeBron]

I don't know about her stances, but when you get an 'extreme' type in the statehouse, especially when it's the majority party in control (within the state), sometimes it backfires.  That's often why you see many more successful minority party governors who govern from the middle (i.e. Henry, Bredesen, Rell, Douglas, etc, etc).

Besides race, it's one of the main reasons why the Tea Party backed Shannon. He willingly gave into the demands of an archconservative Governor through throwing people off the SNAP program, prohibiting cities from implementing a minimum wage in the state, banning abortion after 20 weeks, or implementing the "sun tax" as opposed to Lankford who was one of Tea Party rival John Boehner's right-hand man.

The other thing to note is that the Indie Libertarian in this race is getting 7% of the vote, presumably all from Fallin. Since this is Oklahoma though, while Dorman might be running a great campaign, he doesn't stand much of a chance and it doesn't help either that liberals in the state see him as an unsupportable, social conservative DINO.

[SWE]

Yes,  being a social conservative will definitely hurt a Democrat in Oklahoma.

[eric82oslo]

Looks like pretty much every governorship is a toss-up this year.

Everyone except New York and California that is.

[Maxwell]

I don't know about her stances, but when you get an 'extreme' type in the statehouse, especially when it's the majority party in control (within the state), sometimes it backfires.  That's often why you see many more successful minority party governors who govern from the middle (i.e. Henry, Bredesen, Rell, Douglas, etc, etc).

Besides race, it's one of the main reasons why the Tea Party backed Shannon. He willingly gave into the demands of an archconservative Governor through throwing people off the SNAP program, prohibiting cities from implementing a minimum wage in the state, banning abortion after 20 weeks, or implementing the "sun tax" as opposed to Lankford who was one of Tea Party rival John Boehner's right-hand man.

The other thing to note is that the Indie Libertarian in this race is getting 7% of the vote, presumably all from Fallin. Since this is Oklahoma though, while Dorman might be running a great campaign, he doesn't stand much of a chance and it doesn't help either that liberals in the state see him as an unsupportable, social conservative DINO.

Social liberals in the state know that guys like Dorman and Henry are the best they got. Dorman is most certainly pro-life, but he will certainly veto ridicolous abortion limitation bills like Henry did. Dorman will also, to a certain extent, allow localities to make decisions in education, and for me that seals the deal for any chance I'd be voting for Fallin.