State of the Purple States

[Smash255]

Why is everyone treating VA like a blue state? Not just here, but in lots of maps. Was Arkansas a hard state for Bush to win after Clinton won it nicely twice? The Obama wins shouldn't be a huge future reading.

While Virginia did become Democratic on the Presidential level with Obama, and he certainly helped, the signs were evident prior.  The state was trending Democratic iin the two Presidential elections prior to Obama.  Also keep in mind the Democrats have won 3 of the last 4 Governor races there, will be 4 in a row in Senate races there, swept all state wide offices there.  Not to mention the demographic changes in NOVA and the Richmond suburbs continue. 

[Free Bird]

Why is everyone treating VA like a blue state? Not just here, but in lots of maps. Was Arkansas a hard state for Bush to win after Clinton won it nicely twice? The Obama wins shouldn't be a huge future reading.

While Virginia did become Democratic on the Presidential level with Obama, and he certainly helped, the signs were evident prior.  The state was trending Democratic iin the two Presidential elections prior to Obama.  Also keep in mind the Democrats have won 3 of the last 4 Governor races there, will be 4 in a row in Senate races there, swept all state wide offices there.  Not to mention the demographic changes in NOVA and the Richmond suburbs continue. 

It's absolutely trending, but consider this. Citing governor races is nothing. Until 2013, VA elected a governor opposite the dominate party. This pendulum continued with Warner, whose popularity helped Kaine in. After Obama won it comfortably, McDonnell won in a landslide, and only a scandal and a spoiler got McAuliffe in. Two popular former governors are also the senators, so of course they would win. It is an extremely purple state, and if NOVA can only take it that far, the right has reasons to be hopeful.

[Smash255]

Why is everyone treating VA like a blue state? Not just here, but in lots of maps. Was Arkansas a hard state for Bush to win after Clinton won it nicely twice? The Obama wins shouldn't be a huge future reading.

While Virginia did become Democratic on the Presidential level with Obama, and he certainly helped, the signs were evident prior.  The state was trending Democratic iin the two Presidential elections prior to Obama.  Also keep in mind the Democrats have won 3 of the last 4 Governor races there, will be 4 in a row in Senate races there, swept all state wide offices there.  Not to mention the demographic changes in NOVA and the Richmond suburbs continue. 

It's absolutely trending, but consider this. Citing governor races is nothing. Until 2013, VA elected a governor opposite the dominate party. This pendulum continued with Warner, whose popularity helped Kaine in. After Obama won it comfortably, McDonnell won in a landslide, and only a scandal and a spoiler got McAuliffe in. Two popular former governors are also the senators, so of course they would win. It is an extremely purple state, and if NOVA can only take it that far, the right has reasons to be hopeful.

Governor races in itself might not mean much, but when its basically everything that is going Democratic in the state, its a bit more than  that.  The right has basically no reasons to be hopeeul in VA.  NOVA looks like it will continue to get more and more Democratic.  Not to mention, while NOVA has gotten most of the attention, it is more than just NOVA.  Suburban Richmond.  Henrico has gone from very Republican to Dem leaning, Chesterfield is still Republican, but not nearly as GOP as it once was.


Compared to National average

Henrico
1988 GOP +31.58
1992 GOP +24.03
1996 GOP +21.56
2000 GOP +12.98
2004 GOP +5.74
2008 Dem +4.95
2012 Dem +6.94

[Person Man]

And still Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas were close in 2000 even when the Gore camp retreated to hold Ohio and the rest of the rust belt.

Its too soon to tell if Virginia is a swing state or a Democratic state. Heck, the three above were considered swing states until Kerry lost them in a landslide.

[solarstorm]

OH: Pure Purple ✔

VA: Tilting D due to recent events being the only data, but still very much tiltable either way. It's very politically diverse. ✔

FL: Pure Purple, but slight R advantage as a whole. Cubans are still loyal. Very close in '12 ✔

PA: It's Trending D, but slowly turning around to pure purple given the right candidate. Safe D

NC: Leans R ✔

MI: Purple but with a stubborn D loyalty presidentially. Would take an 08 wave to flip it. Safe D

WI: Purple but trending R. Love him or hate him, Walker is still popular, and People forget how close 2000 an 2004 were. Have to wait for the clean slate in 2016. Leaning D

NV: Trending D, but a Libertarian-minded or moderate (Cough cough Sandoval) candidate may turn it around. ✔

CO: Pure purple. Things look grim, but Gardner making a once boring race competitive, Beauprez having a surprisingly strong early showing, and Paul doing well in early polls show it very much still up for grabs. ✔

IA: Pure Purple, trends D. Let's see what 2016 and the senate election brings. Lean D

NH: Pure Purple. Really just chooses the more bipartisan Libertarian minded candidates, as long as they're not from Mass, so it is hard to assign a loyalty. Safe D

Is it worth calling NM a purple state? No!

[Free Bird]

OH: Pure Purple ✔

VA: Tilting D due to recent events being the only data, but still very much tiltable either way. It's very politically diverse. ✔

FL: Pure Purple, but slight R advantage as a whole. Cubans are still loyal. Very close in '12 ✔

PA: It's Trending D, but slowly turning around to pure purple given the right candidate. Safe D

NC: Leans R ✔

MI: Purple but with a stubborn D loyalty presidentially. Would take an 08 wave to flip it. Safe D

WI: Purple but trending R. Love him or hate him, Walker is still popular, and People forget how close 2000 an 2004 were. Have to wait for the clean slate in 2016. Leaning D

NV: Trending D, but a Libertarian-minded or moderate (Cough cough Sandoval) candidate may turn it around. ✔

CO: Pure purple. Things look grim, but Gardner making a once boring race competitive, Beauprez having a surprisingly strong early showing, and Paul doing well in early polls show it very much still up for grabs. ✔

IA: Pure Purple, trends D. Let's see what 2016 and the senate election brings. Lean D

NH: Pure Purple. Really just chooses the more bipartisan Libertarian minded candidates, as long as they're not from Mass, so it is hard to assign a loyalty. Safe D

Is it worth calling NM a purple state? No!

All the safe D's are just wrong

HOW is NH safe D? PA safe D? Gimme a break

[Non Swing Voter]

Why is everyone treating VA like a blue state? Not just here, but in lots of maps. Was Arkansas a hard state for Bush to win after Clinton won it nicely twice? The Obama wins shouldn't be a huge future reading.

While Virginia did become Democratic on the Presidential level with Obama, and he certainly helped, the signs were evident prior.  The state was trending Democratic iin the two Presidential elections prior to Obama.  Also keep in mind the Democrats have won 3 of the last 4 Governor races there, will be 4 in a row in Senate races there, swept all state wide offices there.  Not to mention the demographic changes in NOVA and the Richmond suburbs continue. 

It's absolutely trending, but consider this. Citing governor races is nothing. Until 2013, VA elected a governor opposite the dominate party. This pendulum continued with Warner, whose popularity helped Kaine in. After Obama won it comfortably, McDonnell won in a landslide, and only a scandal and a spoiler got McAuliffe in. Two popular former governors are also the senators, so of course they would win. It is an extremely purple state, and if NOVA can only take it that far, the right has reasons to be hopeful.

what?  so the fact that Dems are pretty much winning everything statewide + the fact that demographic trendlines all point to NOVA growing and the state voting more democratic, it's still not a lean D state?

Where is there evidence of a Republican comeback.  The only argument I seem to hear from Republicans is that there was greater than expected black turnout for Obama which will fade...  That didn't happen in the McAuliffe election.  At the same time NOVA continues to grow rapidly.  Especially now that the silver line is nearly complete, a lot of high rises are going up deeper into Fairfax county...  it's tempting more and more DC/Maryland people to move down for the lower taxes...  Virginia is basically becoming a lost cause for Republicans.  NOVA is voting like the NYC suburbs and is simply becoming too populated for Republicans to counter-act... especially since many Republican areas of the state are actually losing population...