GA-WSB-TV/Landmark (R): Nunn (D) with moderate leads over Kingston/Perdue

[Tender Branson]

Landmark Communications (R) for WSB-TV:

Georgia Senate - GOP Primary Runoff (July 22)

Kingston 48, Perdue 41 (+7)

General Election:

Nunn 49, Kingston 41 (D+8)
Nunn 48, Perdue 42 (D+6)

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/poll-kingston-leads-perdue-runoff-nears/ngh9b/

[Tender Branson]

Amazing, if true ...

[Free Bird]

Isn't this poll based in Atlanta? If it is that general area, then I don't buy it.

[NHLiberal]

This is a Republican firm. Any unskewing attempts would be moot.

[Free Bird]

R Based? Really?
There is also the fact that the Kingston and Perdue are hammering each other with negative ads that only emphasize their negatives, causing neither of them to look good and the polls to favor Nunn. Once the runoff is done, I think Republicans will unify with positive ads on Kingston, causing the polls to narrow up. Remember, Georgia is still a red state. Trending away? Yes, especially with a scumbag like Deal, but not quite yet.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

R Based? Really?
There is also the fact that the Kingston and Perdue are hammering each other with negative ads that only emphasize their negatives, causing neither of them to look good and the polls to favor Nunn. Once the runoff is done, I think Republicans will unify with positive ads on Kingston, causing the polls to narrow up. Remember, Georgia is still a red state. Trending away? Yes, especially with a scumbag like Deal, but not quite yet.

Or...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What I want is a non-internal poll of this race. The last one we have is from SurveyUSA, which showed Nunn trailing by 6. The internals (on both sides) are showing radically different results from that, and it seems sort of odd that a republican firm would show a bigger Nunn lead than a PPP internal would. Still at Lean R for now. Going to wait for a poll that isn't an internal before totally invalidating SUSA and moving this to Toss-Up.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

What I want is a non-internal poll of this race. The last one we have is from SurveyUSA, which showed Nunn trailing by 6. The internals (on both sides) are showing radically different results from that, and it seems sort of odd that a republican firm would show a bigger Nunn lead than a PPP internal would. Still at Lean R for now. Going to wait for a poll that isn't an internal before totally invalidating SUSA and moving this to Toss-Up.

This is already a Toss-Up.

[Free Bird]

For all intents and purposes, I should be supporting Nunn. But her potentially flipping a seat hinders the overall goal of the GOP taking over and making Obama a lame duck with barely any pull anymore that wouldn't be questioned.

[NHLiberal]

What I want is a non-internal poll of this race. The last one we have is from SurveyUSA, which showed Nunn trailing by 6. The internals (on both sides) are showing radically different results from that, and it seems sort of odd that a republican firm would show a bigger Nunn lead than a PPP internal would. Still at Lean R for now. Going to wait for a poll that isn't an internal before totally invalidating SUSA and moving this to Toss-Up.

If the internal is a REPUBLICAN internal, the argument that it's an internal really can't be used to invalidate a DEMOCRAT leading. Internals don't use an inherently worse methodology; they are just inherently biased. Since this poll found the opposite of what you'd expect from a biased internal, the point is moot and lends the poll even more legitimacy.

[SWE]

Democrats shouldn't get too excited here. Remember, Nunn's chances of winning are only as good as Scott Brown's

[Never]

I don't like what I'm seeing from this poll, but I'm loath to write it off because it is a Republican internal, and I don't know enough about the pollster to judge their accuracy. This race could very well be a tossup, but I need to see some other polls to back this up. Deal seems to be deteriorating in the gubernatorial race, so he could be dragging down Kingston/Perdue.

[badgate]

Hopefully the elongated runoff has turned independents off of both Kingston and Perdue.

[Free Bird]

Hopefully the elongated runoff has turned independents off of both Kingston and Perdue.

That's my theory. Happened with the CT governor race in 2010. In that case, it'll be narrow regardless, but if she wins and the GOP still takes it, I don't care.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democrats shouldn't get too excited here. Remember, Nunn's chances of winning are only as good as Scott Brown's

Or according to Rothenberg, only as good as Weiland's.(He's the only one who still has GA at Likely R, everyone else has it at Lean R or Toss-Up.)

[NHLiberal]

Hopefully the elongated runoff has turned independents off of both Kingston and Perdue.

That's my theory. Happened with the CT governor race in 2010. In that case, it'll be narrow regardless, but if she wins and the GOP still takes it, I don't care.

If Nunn wins, there's no way in hell the GOP has taken the Senate

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hopefully the elongated runoff has turned independents off of both Kingston and Perdue.

That's my theory. Happened with the CT governor race in 2010. In that case, it'll be narrow regardless, but if she wins and the GOP still takes it, I don't care.

If Nunn wins, there's no way in hell the GOP has taken the Senate

Nah, they might still take it:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

[Adam Griffin]

[Free Bird]

Hopefully the elongated runoff has turned independents off of both Kingston and Perdue.

That's my theory. Happened with the CT governor race in 2010. In that case, it'll be narrow regardless, but if she wins and the GOP still takes it, I don't care.

If Nunn wins, there's no way in hell the GOP has taken the Senate

Nah, they might still take it:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

Exactly. There are openings to cover this potential loss in Colorado and Iowa, but if the national environment still favors the GOP, I think even Kingston might squeak by.

[GaussLaw]

Hopefully the elongated runoff has turned independents off of both Kingston and Perdue.

That's my theory. Happened with the CT governor race in 2010. In that case, it'll be narrow regardless, but if she wins and the GOP still takes it, I don't care.

If Nunn wins, there's no way in hell the GOP has taken the Senate

Nah, they might still take it:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

Exactly. There are openings to cover this potential loss in Colorado and Iowa, but if the national environment still favors the GOP, I think even Kingston might squeak by.

RCP does not take into account the runoff 50 percent rule when doing that map.  Nunn needs a majority, not a plurality.  She just cannot win a runoff given the turnout drop in Georgia. 

If Iowa goes GOP, so will Georgia.

[moderatevoter]

Let's not forget the runoff will be in January, after a (likely) gubernatorial runoff in December.

[pbrower2a]

Democrats shouldn't get too excited here. Remember, Nunn's chances of winning are only as good as Scott Brown's

1. Democrats other than Barack Obama are gaining much of the popularity that they lost in the George W. Bush and Obama presidencies. Obama? Who cares now with respect to elections? He's not running for anything.

Hillary Clinton is drawing up close to potential Republican nominees for President in some states that Barack Obama lost by Mondale-like an McGovern-like margins.

2. In the South, incumbent pols are largely Republicans, and they get the heat in the region due to the anti-incumbent tendency in polling.  The incumbent Democrats whose Senate seats are up for challenge in 2014 are moderates. They have danced around the minefield of unpopularity of President Obama. They are holding their own.

3. In a state (Kentucky) with some parallels to Georgia, the incumbent Republican -- the Senate Majority Leader! -- finds his seat at risk.   

Trust but verify. There will be more polls.