MT-PPP: Daines up 7
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Author Topic: MT-PPP: Daines up 7  (Read 1315 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: July 21, 2014, 11:21:59 AM »

Shrinking from November's 52/37 to 46/39.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2014, 11:49:53 AM »

6 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 42% ................................................
Mitt Romney 47% ....................................................
Someone else / Don't remember 11%

I am skeptical. 
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2014, 11:58:07 AM »

Compare this to the poll with Daines up 15

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MT_111913.pdf

Q21 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 39% ................................................
Mitt Romney 52% ....................................................
Someone else/Don't remember 9%


This strikes me as closer to the actual electorate for 2014. 
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LeBron
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2014, 12:23:53 PM »

Actually, PPP's last poll had Daines up by 17, not 15. Also, here's the PPP article on the race that notes Daines' decline in GOP and Indie support and Walsh getting a more unified, Democratic base. Daines' approvals have also dropped underwater to 39/40 disapprove from his last 41/33 approval. Walsh is 38/37 approve.

Regarding this, Daines' drop in job approval and poll numbers can be attributed to Walsh's sharp attacks on connecting Daines' to the government shutdown as well as his attempts to criminalize abortion. It's worth mentioning to that Walsh's name ID numbers since November have gone from 53% to 26% which in large part is due to all of those pro-Walsh ads so far talking about his record in the military and DC.

At least for Dems, we can start to feel a lot more optimistic about holding this seat, but for now, it still leans Daines. I think we can agree that we have a better chance of holding MT than WV at this point.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2014, 12:33:04 PM »

Walsh is closing the gap. SHOCKER. I'm gonna laugh so hard if we keep this seat.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2014, 12:33:31 PM »

6 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 42% ................................................
Mitt Romney 47% ....................................................
Someone else / Don't remember 11%

I am skeptical. 

LOL wut. Obama's approval numbers are not only lower than they were in 2012, but the 2014 electorate will be more GOP, so this makes no sense.

I will definitely need another poll to back this up. But either way, Daines being ahead of Romney basically means Walsh still has a long way to go before winning this seat in his own right.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2014, 12:47:41 PM »

Walsh is closing the gap. SHOCKER. I'm gonna laugh so hard if we keep this seat.
Correct, Walsh has a chance at pulling off an upset here if the 2014 electorate is more Democratic than the 2012 electorate.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2014, 12:49:52 PM »

It's still 7 points and the MoE could play a role, so it could be higher.

I'd wait for another poll here ...
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2014, 01:12:57 PM »

6 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 42% ................................................
Mitt Romney 47% ....................................................
Someone else / Don't remember 11%

I am skeptical. 
This sounds like the 2008 electorate. Sorry, PPP, that's not what's going to turn out. Go back to your 52/39 Romney sample, that's exactly what it was in 2012 in terms of percentage difference.

MT-Sen is still Likely R.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2014, 01:13:52 PM »

6 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 42% ................................................
Mitt Romney 47% ....................................................
Someone else / Don't remember 11%

I am skeptical. 

LOL wut. Obama's approval numbers are not only lower than they were in 2012, but the 2014 electorate will be more GOP, so this makes no sense.

I will definitely need another poll to back this up. But either way, Daines being ahead of Romney basically means Walsh still has a long way to go before winning this seat in his own right.

It's been a consistent trend in PPP polls that "Someone else/Don't remember" = overwhelmingly Romney voters who are embarrassed they supported him, either because they think he's a RINO, they hate him for losing, or whatever else.  The numbers make more sense if you look at it from that standpoint.

And will the Montana electorate really be more GOP than in 2012? Maybe by a little bit, but the main thing that hurts Democrats in midterm dropoff is minority voters not turning out, and Montana is like 99% white.

It would be nice to get another decent pollster here though.
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windjammer
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« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2014, 01:21:21 PM »

Guys, most of the "don't remember" were Romney voters. (just see Obama's approval among them: 13/76). I think the results are relatively accurate.

I'm not saying Walsh will pull an upset, but that will be closer than some people thought on this forum.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2014, 02:07:04 PM »

Questions about sample aside, I don't think Daines was ever going to win by 17. I always expected it to be closer than people anticipated, but I don't think Daines is really in danger of losing it.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2014, 03:07:59 PM »

6 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 42% ................................................
Mitt Romney 47% ....................................................
Someone else / Don't remember 11%

I am skeptical. 

LOL wut. Obama's approval numbers are not only lower than they were in 2012, but the 2014 electorate will be more GOP, so this makes no sense.

I will definitely need another poll to back this up. But either way, Daines being ahead of Romney basically means Walsh still has a long way to go before winning this seat in his own right.

It's been a consistent trend in PPP polls that "Someone else/Don't remember" = overwhelmingly Romney voters who are embarrassed they supported him, either because they think he's a RINO, they hate him for losing, or whatever else.  The numbers make more sense if you look at it from that standpoint.

And will the Montana electorate really be more GOP than in 2012? Maybe by a little bit, but the main thing that hurts Democrats in midterm dropoff is minority voters not turning out, and Montana is like 99% white.

It would be nice to get another decent pollster here though.

The midterm dropoff is also younger voters, and I suspect, even in Montana, those voters are heavily Democratic.

Count me as suspicious of this poll.
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windjammer
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2014, 03:29:14 PM »

MATHEMATICS
Well, since some members of this forum don't seem to trust the poll because of the 2012 presidential results. I was curious about how the "Don't remember/someone else" voters voted. I was curious, so I made some calculus.

We know that Obama job approval 37/57.
Obama job approval is 73/13 among Obama voters.
Obama job approval is 7/91 among Romney voters.
And Obama job approval is 13/76 among Other/Don't Remember voters.

In order to determine how the Other/Don't Remember voted (because yep, there weren't 11% of voters who voted for an another candidate than Obama or Romney), I made and resolved a system of 2 equations with 2 unknowns:

    77x+7y=13                        1001x+91y=169                            988x=93
=)                              (=)      =)                                   (=)          =)
   13x + 91y= 76                   13x + 91y = 76                               13x + 91y=76

                  x=0.09    
(=)         =)
                  y= 76-13(0.09)    = 0.82
                       ----------------
                            91

So the results: 9% of them voted for Obama, 82% of them voted for Romney. And 9% of them didn't vote for Romney or Obama.


We know as well that the 2012 result for this poll is:
Barack Obama: 42%
Mitt Romney: 47%
Someone else: 11%


So, I believe that in order to determine the real presidential vote, we have to do:
Barack Obama= 42+(11)(0.09)=42.99
Mitt Romney= 47+(11)(0.82)= 56.2
Other (Johnson,...)= (11)(0.09)= 0.99


The real results of the 2012 presidential election in Montana were:
Mitt Romney= 55.35
Barack Obama= 41.7
Others= 2.95



So, the only problem seems to be with the others (0.99 instead of 2.95). Time to make some other calculs.
Mitt Romney= 56.2- (1.96)(0.562)=55.09
Barack Obama= 42.99 -(1.96)(0.4299)=42.14
Others= 0.99+1.96=2.95 (yep I know, that's not exactly accurate, but that's approximately accurate)


The real results were 55.35 Romney/41.7 Obama/2.95 Others




So, I believe we should consider this PPP  poll as ACCURATE.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #14 on: July 21, 2014, 04:06:40 PM »

but Obama's approvals are even worse now than they were during the election. Add that to the fact that it will be a midterms climate (meaning less young people), and what we get is that the sample is reflective of a 2012 climate, not a 2014 climate.

If another credible pollster reflects the same results, I will back down on my criticism of this poll.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: July 21, 2014, 05:43:01 PM »

I think this will.be the surprise of the night, Walsh and Nunn winning.


Gov Bullock knew what he was doing when he selected Walsh, fully aware of his questionable military background.



I am hopefull.about this race.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: July 21, 2014, 10:09:45 PM »

but Obama's approvals are even worse now than they were during the election. Add that to the fact that it will be a midterms climate (meaning less young people), and what we get is that the sample is reflective of a 2012 climate, not a 2014 climate.

If another credible pollster reflects the same results, I will back down on my criticism of this poll.

Approval ratings usually dip significantly for just about any incumbent Governor or Senator -- so much that an elected incumbent with so little as 44% approval at the start of the campaign season has roughly a 50/50 chance of winning the next election. As a rule, incumbents campaign to get re-elected, and not only as a habit.

Quote
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule/

Relating to Senate and Gubernatorial elections of 2006, 2008, and 2009:



There's nothing about 2010, the Tea Party election. I suspect that Democratic incumbents were generally in trouble.

Relevance to this election for the US Senate seat in Montana -- practically none. Walsh is appointed, so he has yet to prove his ability as a campaigner for a Senate seat. This race is still for Daines to lose. In view of US Senate races in Indiana and Missouri in 2012, such is possible if Daines takes extremist positions.

7% is a good, if not insurmountable lead for a challenger. It can be blown.     
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