MT-PPP: Daines up 7

[windjammer]

Guys, most of the "don't remember" were Romney voters. (just see Obama's approval among them: 13/76). I think the results are relatively accurate.

I'm not saying Walsh will pull an upset, but that will be closer than some people thought on this forum.

[windjammer]

MATHEMATICS
Well, since some members of this forum don't seem to trust the poll because of the 2012 presidential results. I was curious about how the "Don't remember/someone else" voters voted. I was curious, so I made some calculus.

We know that Obama job approval 37/57.
Obama job approval is 73/13 among Obama voters.
Obama job approval is 7/91 among Romney voters.
And Obama job approval is 13/76 among Other/Don't Remember voters.

In order to determine how the Other/Don't Remember voted (because yep, there weren't 11% of voters who voted for an another candidate than Obama or Romney), I made and resolved a system of 2 equations with 2 unknowns:

    77x+7y=13                        1001x+91y=169                            988x=93
=)                              (=)      =)                                   (=)          =)
   13x + 91y= 76                   13x + 91y = 76                               13x + 91y=76

                  x=0.09    
(=)         =)
                  y= 76-13(0.09)    = 0.82
                       ----------------
                            91

So the results: 9% of them voted for Obama, 82% of them voted for Romney. And 9% of them didn't vote for Romney or Obama.


We know as well that the 2012 result for this poll is:
Barack Obama: 42%
Mitt Romney: 47%
Someone else: 11%


So, I believe that in order to determine the real presidential vote, we have to do:
Barack Obama= 42+(11)(0.09)=42.99
Mitt Romney= 47+(11)(0.82)= 56.2
Other (Johnson,...)= (11)(0.09)= 0.99


The real results of the 2012 presidential election in Montana were:
Mitt Romney= 55.35
Barack Obama= 41.7
Others= 2.95



So, the only problem seems to be with the others (0.99 instead of 2.95). Time to make some other calculs.
Mitt Romney= 56.2- (1.96)(0.562)=55.09
Barack Obama= 42.99 -(1.96)(0.4299)=42.14
Others= 0.99+1.96=2.95 (yep I know, that's not exactly accurate, but that's approximately accurate)


The real results were 55.35 Romney/41.7 Obama/2.95 Others




So, I believe we should consider this PPP  poll as ACCURATE.