Could Texas' turnout surpass California's/New York's in 2016?
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  Could Texas' turnout surpass California's/New York's in 2016?
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Author Topic: Could Texas' turnout surpass California's/New York's in 2016?  (Read 908 times)
eric82oslo
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« on: July 21, 2014, 11:47:31 AM »
« edited: July 21, 2014, 11:50:06 AM by eric82oslo »

Let's say that Hillary keeps her current edge on her Republican opponents all the way up to election day 2016, meaning that Hillary might win the election in the end with somewhere along a 10% margin, possibly more. That would mean that Texas would almost certainly face a presidential competitiveness it hasn't seen since 1996, when Bob Dole managed to beat Clinton by 4.9% margin (Bush senior only managed a 3.5% edge in 1992). Texas could then, in 2016, see a Republican margin of just 5-6%, perhaps as little as 2-3% (in the scenario of a substantially elevated minority turnout coupled with a Hillary landslide). Now, needless to say, in a Hillary landslide of a 10-12% margin, über-Democratic states like California and New York (her adopted home state) wouldn't be the slightest interesting for political pundits, and as a result, turnout there could potentially plummet even further. Our best current estimates is that Hillary would, in a national landslide, easily win both states with at least a 28-30% margin (knowing how rapidly especially California is turning blue).

Knowing that Texas could be within a 5-6% range of a Hillary upset, while the two biggest Democratic states California and New York at best would be 25-28% away from a Hillary loss in a national landslide for her, do you think it's reasonable to assume that Texas turnout for once (and for the very first time in ages) could actually result in being higher than both California and New York, simultaneously?
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henster
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2014, 11:58:39 AM »

No, Hillary will lose Texas by double digits like every Dem has done so since 2000.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2014, 12:54:05 PM »

Even in a blowout Clinton doesn't break 45% in Texas in 2016, and you can quote me on that in November 2016 if you remember this post exists and make fun of me if I'm wrong.

Also, Texas' abysmal turnout rate isn't going to dramatically change any time soon because Texas' population includes a lot of people, whether non-citizens, minors, or felons, who can't vote, and Texas is a disproportionately young state.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2014, 12:59:41 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2014, 01:01:32 PM by Tender Branson »

Turnout would be higher in TX ... among Republicans, coming out in droves against Hillary.

She'd probably lose the state by about 10-15 points.

When it comes to turnout, TX will continue to have one of the lowest in the US - because Dems and the Hillary campaign won't invest any money in the state.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2014, 01:23:33 PM »

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King
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2014, 01:46:09 PM »

If Hillary wants to get creative with her nationwide lead, swinging for Texas would be interesting. At least investing in Latino registration and turnout would be worthwhile.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2014, 05:20:13 PM »

Quit the pipe dreams
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2014, 07:52:06 PM »

Pretty much every election in Texas is won by the Republican with 55%, +/- 2%. This will be no exception.
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crash1984
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« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2014, 01:32:13 AM »


When it comes to turnout, TX will continue to have one of the lowest in the US - because Dems and the Hillary campaign won't invest any money in the state.

Which actually makes sense. I know it seems silly to say this, given how much money in involved in politics, but there is only so much money you have and Texas would be a waste of money. You would have chance at better results spending it in places like Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2014, 01:27:59 PM »


When it comes to turnout, TX will continue to have one of the lowest in the US - because Dems and the Hillary campaign won't invest any money in the state.

Which actually makes sense. I know it seems silly to say this, given how much money in involved in politics, but there is only so much money you have and Texas would be a waste of money. You would have chance at better results spending it in places like Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

But if Hillary is already winning the national vote With 10%, she will have plenty enough of opportunities to og a little crazy and spend a little silly. Tongue
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2014, 05:14:26 PM »


When it comes to turnout, TX will continue to have one of the lowest in the US - because Dems and the Hillary campaign won't invest any money in the state.

Which actually makes sense. I know it seems silly to say this, given how much money in involved in politics, but there is only so much money you have and Texas would be a waste of money. You would have chance at better results spending it in places like Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

But if Hillary is already winning the national vote With 10%, she will have plenty enough of opportunities to og a little crazy and spend a little silly. Tongue

Don't count on that holding up.  Seriously.
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crash1984
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« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2014, 08:57:41 PM »


When it comes to turnout, TX will continue to have one of the lowest in the US - because Dems and the Hillary campaign won't invest any money in the state.

Which actually makes sense. I know it seems silly to say this, given how much money in involved in politics, but there is only so much money you have and Texas would be a waste of money. You would have chance at better results spending it in places like Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

But if Hillary is already winning the national vote With 10%, she will have plenty enough of opportunities to og a little crazy and spend a little silly. Tongue

There is not any guarantees that Hillary's lead is going to be that high up by the time 2016 rolls around. We are still two years plus from the 2016 election and anything could happen. Obama could get into a serious political scandal, the economy could crash again (people usually blame the president when this happens) Obama could get into an unpopular war, or Republicans could find someone insanely popular to run. That being said lets say Hillary Clinton's popularity does hold up there are still better states to send money to over Texas. For instance she would likely bring Georgia and Arizona into serious contention (assuming her 10% lead holds up) and also I could see her going for Louisiana and Mississippi and possibly making bids at Kentucky as well.
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