Who has a better chance of pulling off the upset?

[free my dawg]

Inspired by an IRC discussion that Fitzy and I had.

Right now I'm leaning Wolf, because Roberts' ties to Kansas have grown dubious.

[LeBron]

I agree. It wasn't even the immigration issue that did Cantor in, so Carr might be fighting a losing battle over in Tennessee especially when Alexander is a popular Senator in his state as opposed to Cantor and Roberts who are completely underwater. You can also expect a nice sized anti-incumbent tide come primary day in Kansas when you'll also have Brownback and Kobach on the same ballot.

The only problem for Wolf is that he lacks name recognition, but since the state has closed primaries, if enough anti-Roberts Republicans recognize Wolf and vote for him over the 2 perennial Republicans on the ballot, he can pull it off.

[Pandaguineapig]

Carr, just because of the fact that Wolf is incredibly flawed

[Maxwell]

Wolf, because Roberts is an anonymous figure even within Kansas and has made very notable gaffes.

[NHLiberal]

Seems more and more plausible that Wolf could upset. Roberts is a mess.

[IceSpear]

I'm gonna say Carr, for a few reasons:

a) He has had no major missteps like Wolf did, such as the x-ray photos.
b) The Tennessee election takes place on a Thursday, which seems to favor more motivated Tea Party/right wing activist types.
c) Brownback is currently facing a somewhat serious primary challenge from his left, and Kansas Republicans (and the state in general) seem to be swinging back to the center-right after 4 years of far right governance. This doesn't seem like an environment very receptive to a Tea Party challenge to an incumbent Senator.
d) Alexander is more moderate and has had more "heretic" votes than Roberts ever has. In fact, I can't think of anything Roberts ever voted with the Democrats on besides confirming Sebelius.
e) Electability doesn't seem to be a concern in Tennessee, but it could possibly be in Kansas.

[NHLiberal]

I'm gonna say Carr, for a few reasons:
a) He has had no major missteps like Wolf did, such as the x-ray photos.

Wouldn't that help with conservatives though?

[ElectionsGuy]

Wolf

[Miles]

Wolf; Roberts has made more silly errors than Alexander.

[SWE]

Wolf.  Roberts isn't as strong an incumbent as Alexander is.

[tmthforu94]

There seems to be some rumblings in Tennessee of a Carr upset and the Alexander campaign hasn't been too active. The answer even a few months ago would obviously be Roberts as it is a more high-profile race, but Roberts has ran a strong campaign, quickly defining Wolf. The X-Ray scandal continues to haunt Wolf as well, and almost all of his support, both in terms of cash and volunteers, is coming from out-of-state.

I have a bit of experience witnissing longtime GOP incumbments getting primaried ( Lugar) - that being said, Wolf isn't anywhere near the level that Mourdock was at, and Roberts has ran a much better campaign than Lugar has - nothing is sticking for Wolf. I'm going with Carr mainly just because I see Wolf's chances of winning to be extremely low. I would be surprised if he hit 40%.

[moderatevoter]

Isn't there a third candidate in Tennessee? With him and Carr splitting the anti-Alexander vote and without a run-off, I think I'm going with Wolf. That said, I don't think either incumbent will go down.

[Adam Griffin]

Isn't there a third candidate in Tennessee? With him and Carr splitting the anti-Alexander vote and without a run-off, I think I'm going with Wolf. That said, I don't think either incumbent will go down.

Yes, and he's been running some awesome commercials on local TV. I can't find any, but I somehow think this from 2012 will do. Seriously...listen. He's like the exact opposite now that he's running statewide.

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