Which do you think has a greater likelihood of happening?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

 

Both seem incredibly unlikely, but I recently read an article that some Republicans are becoming softer towards the idea of legal gay marriage, but immigration is also a pretty hot button issue that Democrats probably won't cave on. I'd have to say option 1, but neither would happen anytime remotely soon.

I disagree. Five Republican Senators now support gay marriage, and quite a few Congressmen do as well. Also, the Ron Paul generation is going to take over the Republican Party-in fact, a vast majority of the young Republican operatives I have worked with on a few campaigns are all influenced by Ron Paul. This tidal wave of libertarianism that is going to hit the GOP in the next five years will greatly reshape the way the party looks at most issues.

I certainly hope the GOP continues to keep up the hardline views on immigration. A moderate GOP nominee who is ambivalent on Obamacare ("I don't like it, but I won't abolish it"), non interventionist on foreign policy, and is economically conservative but with a touch of Buchananesque populism is absolutely what the Republican Party needs right now.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Also, the Ron Paul generation is going to take over the Republican Party-in fact, a vast majority of the young Republican operatives I have worked with on a few campaigns are all influenced by Ron Paul. This tidal wave of libertarianism that is going to hit the GOP in the next five years will greatly reshape the way the party looks at most issues.

Don't hold your breath on the five years thing. And besides, isn't the Ron Paul position "leave it to the states"? Which is pretty much already the GOP position, or at least the position that's vocalized by a lot of the young GOPhers. Which isn't a pro gay marriage stance. It's an "i don't want to talk about it, so this is my cop out mechanism" stance.

Most young Ron Paul supporters happen to be in favor of gay marriage in their own states, and it is highly likely that at least 45 states will have gay marriage legal before the next election, if the SCOTUS doesn't legalize it nationwide by that point. So the GOP is likely to come around on the issue by 2020, especially as the evangelicals die by the day.