SC-Various SC media outlets/Susquehanna (R): Gov. Haley (R) up 4 (or 13)

[Tender Branson]

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http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20140722/PC1603/140729812/1177/poll-nikki-haleys-lead-over-democrat-vincent-sheheen-is-slim-in-four-way-governors-race

[tmthforu94]

Well, that doesn't make much sense.

[Tender Branson]

I see 2 problems with this poll:

* Why are these 4 independent SC media outlets, who commissioned the poll, using a partisan pollster like Susquehanna for their poll ?

* And why is there such a big difference between the 2-way and 3-way and why was the 2-way asked of all 1000 likely voters, but the 3-way only of 650 likely voters ?

Nonetheless, Haley seems to be ahead by some 10 points or so ...

[NHLiberal]

Well, Ervin and French are both running, and 2-3% for each seems reasonable, so I think Haley up 4 is the result of this poll. And since it's a Republican firm, and then factoring in for MOE...it's a dead heat.

[IceSpear]

This poll is garbage. The two separate results make no sense, and it was done by Susquehanna, the same pollster that said Romney and Tom Smith would win PA.

Throw this one in the trashcan.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Basically, the poll is showing that Sheheen's support is firm, but weak.  He needs Ervin to do better to have any chance defeating Haley.  Given the money Ervin has spent so far, for him to only get 3% is rather pathetic.  In short, Strong R but not Safe R.

[NHLiberal]

This poll is garbage. The two separate results make no sense, and it was done by Susquehanna, the same pollster that said Romney and Tom Smith would win PA.

Throw this one in the trashcan.

Exactly...it shows biases for Republicans...meaning Sheheen is doing better in real life than in this poll.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This poll is garbage. The two separate results make no sense, and it was done by Susquehanna, the same pollster that said Romney and Tom Smith would win PA.

Throw this one in the trashcan.

Exactly...it shows biases for Republicans...meaning Sheheen is doing better in real life than in this poll.

But not nearly good enough.  The Libertarian will not be getting 2% of the vote come November, and if Ervin has only 3% support now despite the ads he's already run, it's clear he'll be a non-factor come November.  Sheheen's only chances for victory in November are a Haley flub or scandal (which at this point is highly unlikely to occur) or Ervin to take a significant chunk of votes from Haley (which does not appear to be happening).

For those of you who think Sheheen has a chance, I ask you to explain why anyone who voted for Haley in 2010 would switch and vote for Sheheen this time when they rejected Sheheen in 2010.

[SPC]

This poll is garbage. The two separate results make no sense, and it was done by Susquehanna, the same pollster that said Romney and Tom Smith would win PA.

Throw this one in the trashcan.

Exactly...it shows biases for Republicans...meaning Sheheen is doing better in real life than in this poll.

But not nearly good enough.  The Libertarian will not be getting 2% of the vote come November, and if Ervin has only 3% support now despite the ads he's already run, it's clear he'll be a non-factor come November.  Sheheen's only chances for victory in November are a Haley flub or scandal (which at this point is highly unlikely to occur) or Ervin to take a significant chunk of votes from Haley (which does not appear to be happening).

For those of you who think Sheheen has a chance, I ask you to explain why anyone who voted for Haley in 2010 would switch and vote for Sheheen this time when they rejected Sheheen in 2010.

Isn't it theoretically possible that the two elections will have different levels of turnout? (i.e. a 2010 Haley voter not voting and a new voter voting for Sheheen)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Isn't it theoretically possible that the two elections will have different levels of turnout? (i.e. a 2010 Haley voter not voting and a new voter voting for Sheheen)

In theory yes, but in reality I'm expecting a downturn in voting all around.  There's nothing nationally driving turnout as was the case on 2010.  None of our statewide races are exciting with the possible exception of T-Rav running as an independent in Graham's Senate race, and none of the US House races are competitive.