Would a runoff increase or reduce Michelle Nunn's chances?
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  Would a runoff increase or reduce Michelle Nunn's chances?		 « previous next »
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Question: Would a runoff increase or reduce Michelle Nunn's chances?
#1
increase		  
#2
increase, but only in case of a plurality		  
#3
reduce		  
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Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: Would a runoff increase or reduce Michelle Nunn's chances?  (Read 770 times)
solarstorm
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« on: July 23, 2014, 09:52:56 AM »
...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2014, 09:54:41 AM »
Reduce.

Democratic voters are much less reliable runoff-voters than Republicans.
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Never
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2014, 09:55:26 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 23, 2014, 09:54:41 AM
Reduce.

Democratic voters are much less reliable runoff-voters than Republicans.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2014, 09:56:17 AM »
What would be the argument that it could increase her chances? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2014, 09:57:48 AM »
Let's remember: if the Governors race (likely) goes to a runoff, it would be in December. The runoff for Senate would be in January.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2014, 09:58:18 AM »
Quote from: GPORTER on July 23, 2014, 09:57:17 AM
Quote from: NHLiberal on July 23, 2014, 09:56:17 AM
What would be the argument that it could increase her chances? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
I cannot think of one. She would have to lead in the general election by ten percent in my opinion to win the runoff.

Right, and if she was leading by 10% in the GE there would be no runoff-- that would require a third candidate to pull at least 12% of the vote.
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Never
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2014, 10:00:38 AM »
Quote from: NHLiberal on July 23, 2014, 09:58:18 AM
Quote from: GPORTER on July 23, 2014, 09:57:17 AM
Quote from: NHLiberal on July 23, 2014, 09:56:17 AM
What would be the argument that it could increase her chances? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
I cannot think of one. She would have to lead in the general election by ten percent in my opinion to win the runoff.

Right, and if she was leading by 10% in the GE there would be no runoff-- that would require a third candidate to pull at least 12% of the vote.

Precisely. If Nunn is somehow leading by ten, she won't go to a runoff. That kind of margin means that something very, very bad happened to damage Perdue's chances.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2014, 10:03:01 AM »
Reduce.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2014, 10:12:31 AM »
She is a better candidate than Landrieu. She has been near 50 percent to avoid a runoff since her campaign begun. I dont like to say she wont win a runoff, hopefully she avoids one.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2014, 11:30:08 AM »
She will lose the runoff if it happens. Republicans will throw down everything left to deny her the seat, especially if it tips the Senate balance.
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SWE
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2014, 01:44:20 PM »
Reduce. Duh.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2014, 02:04:19 PM »
This isn't even a question...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2014, 04:37:53 PM »
This could go down as one of the most lopsided polls in Forum history and rightfully so.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2014, 06:05:37 PM »
Obviously it'd reduce them, but not like it would in a presidential year (which is the notorious recent example most think of).
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2014, 06:43:21 PM »
Why is this even a thread? Lol.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2014, 02:06:58 PM »
If it decides senate control, the runoff would be Likely R. Otherwise it's Safe R. We saw in 2008 how terrible democratic turnout is in GA runoffs, and nothing short of a race that decides senate control is likely to have any realistic chance of bringing democrats out.
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badgate
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« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2014, 02:27:26 PM »
Quote from: ModerateVAVoter on July 23, 2014, 09:57:48 AM
Let's remember: if the Governors race (likely) goes to a runoff, it would be in December. The runoff for Senate would be in January.

What the hell?!?!
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #17 on: July 24, 2014, 02:55:36 PM »
Quote from: badgate on July 24, 2014, 02:27:26 PM
Quote from: ModerateVAVoter on July 23, 2014, 09:57:48 AM
Let's remember: if the Governors race (likely) goes to a runoff, it would be in December. The runoff for Senate would be in January.

What the hell?!?!
Yeah, GA's changed its rules since 2008. The Senate Runoff wouldn't be held until January 6. The new congress convenes on January 5, so this could result in a really awkward situation, where the republicans could have a 50-49 majority when the new congress first convenes, but then a couple weeks later once the GA results are certified, we could have a 50-50 senate, which would technically be democratic control.
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