Bulgaria elections - 5 October 2014
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  Bulgaria elections - 5 October 2014
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« on: July 23, 2014, 09:29:30 PM »

Bulgaria's last elections were just over a year ago. The result was basically a hung parliament. Eventually a government was formed by the second place Bulgarian Socialist Party and the Turkish minority Movement for Rights and Freedoms, who together had exactly 50% of the seats in parliament. The minority government only survived thanks to the tactical abstention of the far-right Attack party.

After the Socialists poor performance in EU elections, Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski, technically an independent but nominated by the BSP, offered his resignation, paving the way for new elections on October 5th.

The main parties are the same as last time:

Bulgarian Socialist Party: Former Communist Party. Current barely centre-left party.

Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB): Populist, cartoonishly corrupt party currently acting the part of the centre-right opposition.

Movement for Rights and Freedoms: Turkish minority party.

There are a few new players as well:

Bulgaria Without Censorship: This election cycle's new flash in the pan Western style free market conservative party.

Reformist Bloc: A coalition of all the previous election cycles' Western style flash in the pan free market conservative parties, including the Union of Democratic Forces (party that ended Communism), Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (party formed by UDF PM after UDF crashed), Bulgaria for Citizens Movement (party of former Simon II supporters), and the Bulgarian Agrarian People's Union (pre-Communist ruling party)

Alternative for Bulgarian Revival: Party led by former President Georgi Parvanov, who broke away from the Socialist Party, slightly to the left of the Socialist Party.

GERB will probably win.
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EPG
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« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2014, 01:14:55 PM »

Are the Movement for Rights and Freedoms also cartoonishly corrupt?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2014, 05:00:04 PM »

Maybe one day Bulgaria will have a government that won't be defeated after one-term. The good news is Attack! - one of the nastier far-right groups out there - have effectively collapsed.

I thought Bulgaria without Censorship were more "populist" centrists than conservative.

Are the Movement for Rights and Freedoms also cartoonishly corrupt?

It's a Bulgarian party so ... yes. They also have been accused of electoral tourism - Turkish voters voting once at home and then again in foreign consulates; and various quasi-legal means to boost Turkish voters.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2014, 10:17:55 PM »

Some guy who was expelled from the Bulgarian Socialist Party was selected to be interim PM until the elections.

Perhaps Mantis can tell us the story of why he was expelled.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2014, 01:14:54 AM »

Poll:

GERB 43%
BSP 31
MRF 11
Bulgaria Without Censorship 7
Reformist Bloc 7

http://www.focus-fen.net/news/2014/09/04/347617/bulgarias-cedb-takes-lead-in-pre-election-polls-but-hardly-likely-to-form-ruling-majority-roundup.html
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2014, 01:22:44 AM »

Also, the Reformist Bloc was going to have a leadership election but decided to delay it until November 10th, after the election.

Apparently there is disagreement within the coalition over whether or not to form a government with GERB after the parliamentary elections. So rather than have a leadership vote and have the side that loses leave, they're just going to dodge the issue for now.

Oh, and the Reformist Bloc now includes the Freedom and Dignity Party, which I believe is the organizational successor to the Simon II Movement. Although it already included the Bulgaria for Citizens Movement, which had most of the Simonist party's old members.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2014, 09:37:16 PM »

GERB hinted at a grand coalition and then quickly backtracked.

Still, I think they really mean it.

It's pretty much the only solution besides a perpetual caretaker government.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2014, 09:49:18 PM »

Another party which may get into parliament is the Patriotic Front.

The Patriotic Front is a coalition of two right-wing groups. One is the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria, a far-right group which split from Attack and runs a TV station called SKAT. It was also the largest party not to get into parliament in the last elections. The other component is the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization, a somewhat more traditional conservative which takes its name from a 19th anti-Ottoman movement. They ran in an alliance with Bulgaria Without Censorship earlier this year in the EU elections but decided to switch for some reason.
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Vosem
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2014, 10:35:46 PM »

What caused Ataka's support to collapse so dramatically?
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2014, 10:59:16 PM »

I'm mostly just guessing but probably their de facto support of the Socialist-Turkish government.

Also, the loss of the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria and their TV station couldn't have helped either, although that actually happened before the last election.

Where's Mantis???
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2014, 11:43:33 AM »

Campaigning had been suspended the last couple of days because of an explosion at a factory that killed 15 workers.

The election goes on as planned though.
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GMantis
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2014, 06:28:22 PM »

There I was thinking that I had to write something about this election and someone has gone and explained everything as well as I would have done (or perhaps better Wink) A few comments and answers to the questions raised here:

Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB): Populist, cartoonishly corrupt party currently acting the part of the centre-right opposition.
What's the centre part doing here? The finance minister in the last government was a former World Bank employee and he certainly did his best to do in practice what he had worked in theory in his former job.

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More like yet another pseudo-populist party designed to get its leader (former popular journalist Nikolay Barekov) into government. In fact, judging from the results of the last European election, it probably took more votes from BSP than GERB


Alternative for Bulgarian Revival: Party led by former President Georgi Parvanov, who broke away from the Socialist Party, slightly to the left of the Socialist Party.

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The key point is whether they'll be able to form a coalition only with the Reformist Block or whether they'll need another partner (most likely Barekov's party, though MRF is also possible)

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Probably even more since the other parties are occasionally punished by their voters for being too corrupt, while MRF's voting share is not dependent on it actions and so there is little incentive for it to be at least somewhat discrete about its corruption.

Some guy who was expelled from the Bulgarian Socialist Party was selected to be interim PM until the elections.

Perhaps Mantis can tell us the story of why he was expelled.
For his passionate support for the protests against the government. For example, he went as far as using his position as university lecturer to call on his students to occupy the university. Of course he's been in conflict with the party for a long time, though the last straw was Ivaylo Kalfin being selected to be BSP presidential candidate instead of him. He was especially angered by the fact that while he had been always loyal to BSP, Kalfin had abandoned the BSP at one point (and he did it again recently when he joined Parvanov's ABV). Of course this might have been just posturing to get his current position (the fact that he was supposedly angry with BSP about their flat tax and now has joined an even more right-wing party)

GERB hinted at a grand coalition and then quickly backtracked.

Still, I think they really mean it.

It's pretty much the only solution besides a perpetual caretaker government.
Grand coalitions have a very low reputation here after the grotesque triple coalition of BSP, NMSS and MRF which Borisov defeated in a near landslide in 2009 (the non-MRF part of the coalition lost more than 60% of its voting strength; the MRF gained votes).

Another party which may get into parliament is the Patriotic Front.

The Patriotic Front is a coalition of two right-wing groups. One is the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria, a far-right group which split from Attack and runs a TV station called SKAT. It was also the largest party not to get into parliament in the last elections. The other component is the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization, a somewhat more traditional conservative which takes its name from a 19th anti-Ottoman movement. They ran in an alliance with Bulgaria Without Censorship earlier this year in the EU elections but decided to switch for some reason.
The Patriotic Front is actually a much saner party that Siderov's attack and some of the people working for SKAT have only the fault of being too outspoken. As for VMRO, Barekov's two main sponsors fell out, the richer one's bank almost went bankrupt and he was eventually forced to flee the country, so Barekov no longer has the financial resources which attracted the VMRO in the first place.

I'm mostly just guessing but probably their de facto support of the Socialist-Turkish government.

Also, the loss of the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria and their TV station couldn't have helped either, although that actually happened before the last election.
Yes, mainly that. The loss of the TV station nearly knocked them out last parliament, but then the combination of several ethnic crises in 2011 which they used to rally their voters and a sudden reversal from open support of GERB (which is what led to the split with the National Front in the first place) to becoming their harshest critics led to them clawing back enough support to enter parliament again. But this time around (hopefully) they'll be gone for good.


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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2014, 11:03:25 PM »

No results yet but wikipedia now lists all the polls if anyone is interested:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_parliamentary_election,_2014

They even list them down to the Attack party and the Alternative for Bulgarian Development.
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GMantis
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2014, 08:10:50 AM »

No results yet but wikipedia now lists all the polls if anyone is interested:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_parliamentary_election,_2014

They even list them down to the Attack party and the Alternative for Bulgarian Development.
There have been other polls which showed them close or even over 4%, especially the later.

Now, in the tradition of election day only "rankings", the following popularity chart of Russian and Ukrainian music has been released:

My General by Marina Hlebnikova - 34.5%
Red Riding Hood by Nastya Kamenskih - 17%
Eastern Tales - 11.5%
We go to fight the Bolshevics by Bloc Post - 9.7%
Everyone left for the front by Vladimir Visotsky - 6.9%
In nature without censorship by Potap and Nastya Kamenskih - 5.5%
Lili Marleen - Russian version of a popular WWII German song - 4.9%
Alphabet by Olga Loginova - 4.6%
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GMantis
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2014, 11:10:26 AM »

First exit poll results:

Gallup
GERB 33.2
BSP 16.5
MRF 14.1
Reformist Bloc 8.7
Patriotic Front 6.3
Bulgaria without censorship 6
Alternative for Bulgarian Development 4.1
Attack 3.9

Alpha Research
GERB 33.9
BSP 16.1
MRF 14
Reformist Bloc 8.6
Patriotic Front 6.3
Bulgaria without censorship 5.6
Alternative for Bulgarian Development 4.9
Attack 4.4

It's too close to call whether ABV and Attack will enter parliament.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2014, 02:53:54 PM »

8 parties in parliament would be a record.
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GMantis
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2014, 03:09:27 PM »

8 parties in parliament would be a record.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that two of these parties are actually coalitions with only loose association between the parties within them and liable to collapse under pressure.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2014, 03:25:44 PM »

Do you know within the Reformist Bloc, which parties favor a coalition with GERB and which are opposed?
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2014, 03:56:00 AM »

Bulgarian Socialist Party is embarrassingly close to being overtaken by the Turkish party.
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GMantis
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« Reply #19 on: October 06, 2014, 08:46:21 AM »
« Edited: October 06, 2014, 08:51:23 AM by GMantis »

Do you know within the Reformist Bloc, which parties favor a coalition with GERB and which are opposed?
None of them have opposed a possible coalition -  of course, with certain conditions. The problem will be finding a third coalition partner, since GERB and the block together can't form a government. It seems quite possible that the UDF and DSB won't like a coalition with the MRF, while the Patriotic Front will certainly not want a coalition with an alliance containing a nationalist Turkish party, especially one more extreme than the MRF (the Freedom and Dignity Party). And of course Borisov stated that he won't form a coalition with the MRF or with Bulgaria without censorship, the only other possibility.

Bulgarian Socialist Party is embarrassingly close to being overtaken by the Turkish party.
This is what happens when you abandon most of your core positions (most notably, support for social welfare and having better relations with Russia), ally for nearly a decade with the most hated party in Bulgaria (at least for the ethnic Bulgarian majority) and on top of that, the popular former president abandons the party because he didn't get to be leader.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #20 on: October 06, 2014, 06:21:31 PM »

Looks like the coalition will be GERB + Reformist Bloc + Alternative for Bulgarian Revival (+ Patriotic Front if that isn't enough).
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #21 on: October 06, 2014, 11:30:26 PM »

Apparently all the votes have been counted. I don't know why it's taking so long to work out the seats.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2014, 01:01:29 PM »

English Wikipedia is giving these numbers, don't know where they came from:

GERB 84
BSP 39
MRF 38
Reformist Bloc 23
Patriotic Front 19
Bulgaria Without Censorship 15
Attack 11
Alternative for Bulgarian Revival 11

GERB+Reformist Bloc+ABR = 118 if those numbers are true, 3 short of a majority.

They would need to bring on the Patriotic Front or Bulgaria Without Censorship.
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GMantis
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2014, 03:33:24 PM »

Apparently all the votes have been counted. I don't know why it's taking so long to work out the seats.
They have been worked out, it's just that the Electoral Commission hasn't got around to publishing them yet.


Looks like the coalition will be GERB + Reformist Bloc + Alternative for Bulgarian Revival (+ Patriotic Front if that isn't enough).
A coalition with the left-wing ABV doesn't seem very likely. I would say the Patriotic Front or Bulgaria without Censorship are more likely partners.
And of course there is no need for formal coalitions. It's quite possible for GERB to attempt to form a minority government, relying on the votes of other parties (or parts of coalitions - the Reformist Bloc is not exactly stable) without actually promising them anything. As to why the other parties would agree to this, there are plenty of incentives: they'll have financial difficulties participating in another election, they may achieve worse results the next election (seems especially likely for Bulgaria without Censorship, which declined from their European election results) and they might receive backlash for failing to form another government - GERB is already preparing a media campaign to transfer blame to the others if there are new elections.
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GMantis
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« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2014, 03:40:26 PM »

English Wikipedia is giving these numbers, don't know where they came from:

GERB 84
BSP 39
MRF 38
Reformist Bloc 23
Patriotic Front 19
Bulgaria Without Censorship 15
Attack 11
Alternative for Bulgarian Revival 11

GERB+Reformist Bloc+ABR = 118 if those numbers are true, 3 short of a majority.

They would need to bring on the Patriotic Front or Bulgaria Without Censorship.
These are the correct numbers. You can see here (only in Bulgarian) the distribution of seats by electoral districts.
As for the scenario where the coalition is a few seats short of a majority (including the above scenario, but also the more likely case where they ally with a bigger party, but get support from only part of Reformist Bloc) a few MRF deputies may decide "spontaneously" to support the Borisov government.
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