Bulgaria elections - 5 October 2014
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #25 on: October 07, 2014, 06:21:32 PM »

All it takes is a single defection and MRF becomes the official opposition. That's rough.

Mantis, did you vote for the BSP again?
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #26 on: October 08, 2014, 06:02:31 AM »

All it takes is a single defection and MRF becomes the official opposition. That's rough.

Mantis, did you vote for the BSP again?
No, I couldn't vote for them again after the way they screwed up during Oresharski's government. I believe that political parties should be punished for their failures and not rewarded by voting for them again. Plus, I'm not at all convinced that the new BSP leadership is actually committed towards leading the BSP out of the quagmire where Stanishev lead it.
Since voting for a party that hasn't a chance to enter parliament is the same as not voting, I had to vote for the least evil - which by the process of elimination turned out to be the Patriotic Front.
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Colbert
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« Reply #27 on: October 08, 2014, 05:12:36 PM »

another soc-dem party on the list of falling SDP because get out of social welfare. Why they don"t understand that ? They all wants finish like PASOK ?
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Zuza
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« Reply #28 on: October 09, 2014, 03:48:59 PM »

Vote breakdown by sex, age, place of residence, education level and ethnic group (in Bulgarian). Interesting findings:
1. BSP electorate is very old (only 7% among those who are 18-30 y. o. compared to 31% in the 60+ age group).
2. MRF voters are youngest. I don't know why, it doesn't seem that Turkish birth rate significantly higher than Bulgarian (number of Turks in Bulgaria decreases even faster than number of ethnic Bulgarians). Probably turnout of Turkish youth was higher than that of Bulgarian?
3. For other parties, differences between age groups aren't large (I supposed that Ataka voters should be older, but it turned out not true).
4. Reformist Bloc electorate is the most urbanized and best educated (unsurprising), MRF electorate is very rural and uneducated. This explains why percentage of those who used preference voting was highest for RB voters (55%) and lowest for MRF voters (24%).
5. Plurality of ethnic Roma (44%) voted for MRF.
6. Aside from MRF, GERB is the most popular among Turks and BSP among Romas.
7. 3% of Romas voted for Ataka. Are they crazy?
8. "Other" parties received much more votes from younger well-educated urban dwellers (so their electorate is very close to RB electorate) and 0% from Turks. I know too little about these parties to explain this.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #29 on: October 09, 2014, 06:28:29 PM »

What percentage of Roma are Muslim? Does that percentage more or less line up with the percentage that vote for the MRF?
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #30 on: October 10, 2014, 09:26:20 AM »

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Why would they be older?

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Also a large proportion of the MRF electorate is not very fluent in Bulgarian (or not at all, like many of the immigrants to Turkey). As for the Reformist Bloc, they're composed of five parties which have little friendship between each other and since candidates from different parties run on the same list, their voters were probably trying to move up candidates from their own party, leading to higher preference voting.

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The MRF leadership has been trying to win them over for years, with fluctuating results. My guess is that they tend to vote for the party in power. Of course, there's also all the vote buying, for which there are indications that the MRF has been the most active this election, though I'm not sure whether that would show up in the exit poll results.

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My best guess is vote buying.

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One should be cautious about putting too much stock in these numbers, which are likely based on small samples and are probably not statistically significant.
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #31 on: October 10, 2014, 03:19:06 PM »

Results of the election by electoral district:

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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #32 on: October 10, 2014, 03:29:12 PM »

What percentage of Roma are Muslim? Does that percentage more or less line up with the percentage that vote for the MRF?
There are different estimates varying between a third and a half. And yes, Muslim Gypsies are far more likely to vote for the MRF, especially those who identify as Turks or speak Turkish - mostly those living in Thrace or in the northeast. But most Gypsies living in western Bulgaria are Christians and the MRF has substantial support among them. In fact,  they provide the vast majority of votes for MRF in Western Bulgaria (except in Blagoevgrad province).
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Zuza
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« Reply #33 on: October 10, 2014, 08:56:31 PM »

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Why would they be older?
Older people tend to be more conservative/traditionalist, and Ataka ideology includes elements of traditionalism (I mean, for example, Orthodox Christianity). And as a Russophile, anti-European, anti-NATO party with left-wing economic policies they, as I thought, should get more votes from those who were grown up in socialist Bulgaria (it seems that for roughly the same reasons - relatively left-wing and pro-Russian stance - older Bulgarians tend to vote for BSP).
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #34 on: October 11, 2014, 01:09:16 AM »

I would have guessed Attack voters were older too. Although I know they have ties with the National Bolsheviks, so maybe they have a street punk contingent.
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GMantis
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« Reply #35 on: October 11, 2014, 03:14:19 PM »

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Why would they be older?
Older people tend to be more conservative/traditionalist, and Ataka ideology includes elements of traditionalism (I mean, for example, Orthodox Christianity). And as a Russophile, anti-European, anti-NATO party with left-wing economic policies they, as I thought, should get more votes from those who were grown up in socialist Bulgaria (it seems that for roughly the same reasons - relatively left-wing and pro-Russian stance - older Bulgarians tend to vote for BSP).

I would have guessed Attack voters were older too. Although I know they have ties with the National Bolsheviks, so maybe they have a street punk contingent.
These kind of voters tended indeed to vote for BSP, though I wouldn't be surprised if many switched to Attack this time around. But Mortimer is right about their street component - much of their support has always been young or at most middle aged nationalists and I suppose enough of them managed to somehow managed to accept that a nationalist party could indirectly support a government partly controlled by the MRF.
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #36 on: October 19, 2014, 07:07:32 AM »

Results of the election by municipality:
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #37 on: October 19, 2014, 07:20:11 AM »

Is that "GERB/BSP" tie in your city-map a tie in votes or a rough tie in percentages ?

Because the fact that GERB an BSP are tied in so many cities would be kinda fishy, considering Austria for example has 2400 cities and there are hardly any ties, not even to mention ties between the same parties.
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #38 on: October 19, 2014, 09:59:02 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2014, 10:05:05 AM by GMantis »

Is that "GERB/BSP" tie in your city-map a tie in votes or a rough tie in percentages ?

Because the fact that GERB an BSP are tied in so many cities would be kinda fishy, considering Austria for example has 2400 cities and there are hardly any ties, not even to mention ties between the same parties.
It's an exact tie. But what do you mean under many ties? There is only one tie, in Pordim in the central north, marked in a light purple color.
By the way, you can't really compare Bulgarian municipalities with Austrian ones - they tend to be much bigger and include multiple settlements (though usually only one town), so one can't really call them cities either. There are only 264 of them, while there are about five thousand settlements.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #39 on: October 19, 2014, 11:35:39 AM »

Is that "GERB/BSP" tie in your city-map a tie in votes or a rough tie in percentages ?

Because the fact that GERB an BSP are tied in so many cities would be kinda fishy, considering Austria for example has 2400 cities and there are hardly any ties, not even to mention ties between the same parties.
It's an exact tie. But what do you mean under many ties? There is only one tie, in Pordim in the central north, marked in a light purple color.
By the way, you can't really compare Bulgarian municipalities with Austrian ones - they tend to be much bigger and include multiple settlements (though usually only one town), so one can't really call them cities either. There are only 264 of them, while there are about five thousand settlements.

Sry, my fault.

I thought the ">40% GERB-shade" is the "tie", but it's the other one.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #40 on: October 19, 2014, 11:54:23 AM »

That one area Bulgaria Without Censorship won, is that where Lider is based?
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #41 on: October 19, 2014, 01:14:56 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2014, 01:26:40 PM by GMantis »

That one area Bulgaria Without Censorship won, is that where Lider is based?
Not exactly.The municipality in question is entirely dependent on coal - it contains the largest coal mine in Bulgaria and a large coal fired power plant. And both are controlled either directly or indirectly (along with many other mines and power plants in Bulgaria) by the oligarch Hristo Kovachki , who founded Lider and allied himself with Bulgaria Without Censorship for this election. He is probably the best know example of the so-called "company vote" where oligarchs "influence" their employees into helping them gain political power.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #42 on: October 19, 2014, 07:24:06 PM »

Do we know the internal breakdown of seats within electoral alliances yet?
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #43 on: October 20, 2014, 03:19:03 PM »

Do we know the internal breakdown of seats within electoral alliances yet?
Yes. The reformist bloc has 7 deputies from DSB, 6 from DBG, 4 from UDF and one each from the Bulgarian Agrarian People's Union and the Freedom and Dignity Party, as well as four who are not members of any of the coalition parties, including three from the so-called "Citizen quota".
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #44 on: October 20, 2014, 04:59:10 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2014, 05:39:20 PM by Famous Mortimer »

Interesting that the DSB is strongest since I didn't think they were that popular. I would have figured DBG was the biggest. Also worth noting that apparently DSB is the most anti-Borisov of the Reformist parties, so that might cause some problems.

Parties-and-elections.eu gives a breakdown for the Patriotic Front seats: 11 for the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria and 8 for the Inter-Macedonian Revolutionary Organization.

That just leaves Bulgaria Without Censorship. At least one of their members has to be from Lider.

Oh, and I guess some of the Socialists aren't officially Socialists either, there's bound to be at least one Social Democrat and one Communist. Although I get the impression those distinctions are pretty meaningless and they would never break away.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #45 on: October 20, 2014, 07:43:06 PM »

GERB is now in coalition talks with every party except the MRF (not surprising) and Bulgaria Without Censorship.

They've even talking to the BSP.
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Beagle
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« Reply #46 on: October 20, 2014, 07:44:15 PM »

Interesting that the DSB is strongest since I didn't think they were that popular. I would have figured DBG was the biggest.
And you'd be absolutely correct. No idea where Mantis got the numbers from, but here's the breakdown for the RB - though things are obviously volatile and may change with the constitution of the parliamentary group:
DBG - 7 (from districts 4, 13, 15, 16, 25, 26, 27)
DSB - 5 (districts 3, 14, 23, 24, 25)
UDF - 4 (1, 2, 19, 23)
Freedom and Dignity - 1 (23)
BAPU - 1 (17)
Bulgarian New Democracy - 1 (12)  [a moribund Simeon party splinter, however the deputy is personally popular in Montana]

The 4 unaffiliated are from districts 23, 24 (2) and 29.

Broadly speaking, the pro-Borisov camp is composed of the DBG, UDF, BAPU and BND deputies, while DSB, FD + 3 of the 4 unaffiliated are against a coalition (to varying degrees). The 4th unaffiliated has a very tenuous connection to the RB and is expected to jump ship (probably to GERB) at some point.

Parties-and-elections.eu gives a breakdown for the Patriotic Front seats: 11 for the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria and 8 for the Inter-Macedonian Revolutionary Organization.

Ugh... it is doubtful anyone cares at all, not the least in the coalition itself, but - again - someone is wrong on the internet! (can't link to obligatory xkcd comic)

The NFSB and IMRO (proper) have 7 seats each, while former MEP Slavcho Binev's outfit GORD and a 2011 splinter from the IMRO (confusingly also having the same acronym, though due to a court decision they were not allowed to call themselves the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization) both have 2. Their 19th deputy is a gadfly*, who may have declared allegiance to the NFSB, but does not feel himself constrained by party, ideology or such outdated concepts as morality.

* Note to the Bulgarians here - I'm talking about Ревизоро.

Here Binev and the other IMRO have expressed reservations about working with Borisov and GERB, while the Patriotic Front as a whole do not wish to enter a coalition with RB's Freedom and Dignity (due to alleged Erdogan links).

That just leaves Bulgaria Without Censorship. At least one of their members has to be from Lider.

Technically there are 3 from Lider and 2 from the Agricultural Popular Union, but every one of the 14 - since their 15th deputy didn't even bother waiting for the opening of parliament to leave the group -  may be considered up for grabs and will listen to any offers - for due consideration, of course.

Oh, and I guess some of the Socialists aren't officially Socialists either, there's bound to be at least one Social Democrat and one Communist. Although I get the impression those distinctions are pretty meaningless and they would never break away.

There are 36 parties represented in the coalitions that have entered parliament - and both GERB and the MRF have given a seat to parties that have supported them without a formal coalition agreement. The only party that has entered parliament on its own (due to the low turnout, it has to be said) is Attack, but they can also be neatly divided into the party leader's lovers and the party leader's drinking buddies. If history is any guide, there will no significant movement away from the 3 major groups, while the smaller parties will have their MPs poached. It is virtually certain that any new government will have to rely on more than 130 votes initially in order to be stable in case of defections, but it's highly likely that whatever coalition comes out, the parliament will be short lived.

Does there exist an overview, which MP represents which area?

Yes, though in Bulgarian only: clubz.bg/9107-novite_240_deputati_okonchatelen_variant , among others (sorry, can't post links, you may need to put the http manually)

Alright, back to lurking.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #47 on: October 20, 2014, 07:55:27 PM »

Wow.

Thanks for all that.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #48 on: October 23, 2014, 02:47:22 PM »

Read an article in the Washington Post that said the MRF may try to transition itself from being a Turkish party to being an all Bulgarian party based on rural interests. Is anyone actually in Bulgaria actually saying that though? Sounds like BS to me. MRF is too hated.

Also, ABC/ABV is apparently a coalition party. Who's in that coalition?
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Beagle
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« Reply #49 on: October 23, 2014, 07:15:12 PM »

Read an article in the Washington Post that said the MRF may try to transition itself from being a Turkish party to being an all Bulgarian party based on rural interests. Is anyone actually in Bulgaria actually saying that though? Sounds like BS to me. MRF is too hated.

Well, the MRF has increased their result in rural communities outside of their stronghold regions by something like 300% compared to 2009, when they had 200k more votes.  The short explanation would be to say "Vote buying" and it wouldn't be, you know, incorrect. The long explanation would take, oh, 100-150 pages at a guess.

My explanation will be in bulletpoints:

* The MRF is not exactly beloved by the Bulgarian Turks either, you know. The stranglehold it has over their votes did not come around by a deeply held belief in the liberal (in the ALDE sense) ideals, nor through entirely democratic and/or peaceful means. While there certainly are those who feel the MRF a part of their identity, many regard it as the lesser necessary evil to keep the nationalists in check, and all have seen what has happened to those who dared to publicly oppose it.

* Since 2001 the MRF has steadily gained control over all the state agencies of most interest to the rural communities (and mismanaged them horribly, of course, but that's not the issue). Due to the CAP, if you're a land-holder above the subsistence level, you can make a decent living, provided you get access to EU funds dispersed through a MRF fiefdom intermediary. And if you're not, you'll find out that to get irrigation water, to do some illegal logging or to go hunting etc., it helps to befriend the MRF people in your village.

* For a myriad reasons the rural areas were the stronghold of the BSP for most of the past 25 years, but due to the demographics, the "malignant neglect" policy of the state, the possibility to spend the summer working in the EU and, in parts of the country, the steady increase of the proportion of the Roma population and the resulting crime boom and "white flight", there was a vacuum the MRF moved to fill in - especially since they already control the instruments needed and money is no object. Of course, the Roma are far more amenable to voting for the MRF, so that is a factor in itself.

* The MRF may come across as omnipotent, but they have lost more than a third of their votes from the high point of Dogan's power and influence in 2009. Before he entered his voluntary house arrest,
he had cleansed the party of virtually anyone who might prove a potential challenger and promoted nonentities and, well, people whose past can be used to control their future. This is the reason why I don't think the attempt to permanently enter non-minority areas will be successful. Thugs usually do not make great organizers and the MRF's grip on many of the agencies is starting to look shaky.

* And let's not forget the vote buying.

Also, ABC/ABV is apparently a coalition party. Who's in that coalition?

There are 4 parties in the ABV coalition, one of which is the newly founded ABV party. The other 3, in all honesty, are irrelevant, because they are personality vehicles built around utterly forgettable personalities. To answer your question, they are a vaguely Third Way-ish trade unionist party, a liberal splinter of a splinter from the 1990 UDF and pro-big-business party. Combined, they wouldn't get 0.5% in a normal election, but their registration was needed for ABV to take part in the Euro elections.

In other news, we will get some sort of GERB-led government early next month, but it's still not clear who will take part in it. For instance, the non-IMRO parties of the PF have decided they want a confidence and supply arrangement with GERB and will not enter the government. I think the Bulgaria elections 2015 thread may not be too long in coming.
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