Sabato: IA now tossup, MN a sleeper in the making?

[Miles]

Article.

IA:

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MN:

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The other reasons he gives for downgrading MN are 1) Franken barely won his first election and 2) McFadden's campaign hasn't really kicked into general election mode yet.

Other updates:

Benefitting Democrats:
MI: Lean D -> Likely D
NH: Lean D -> Likely D

Benefitting Republicans:
WV: Leans R -> Likely R
MT: Leans R -> Likely R

[Gass3268]

He moves MN to Lean Dem on a guess but still has Kentucky at Likely Rep. Has he lost his marbles?

[RogueBeaver]

Agree on everything but MN.

[Knives]

Despite the fact that there is polling to suggest MT may be getting tighter, he changes the rating? Yet all polling in MN shows Franken with a decent lead, and he changes that!?

[SWE]

GUYS HE FINALLY CAME TO HIS SENSES AND MADE NH LIKELY D.

Don't really know what he was smoking when he decided Minnesota was Lean D.

[Free Bird]

Yet doesn't make CO Tossup. Dammit LARRY

[windjammer]

Agree on everything but MN, MT and WV.

Seriously,the race is tightening in MT, and he moves that in the Likely Rep column.
Same thing for WV.

[SWE]

Agree on everything but MN, MT and WV.

Seriously,the race is tightening in MT, and he moves that in the Likely Rep column.
Same thing for WV.

He should've already had both in the Likely R column

[NHLiberal]

Yet doesn't make CO Tossup. Dammit LARRY

If you read the full article that accompanies the rating changes, his reason for not moving CO makes a lot of sense. His reasoning for MN, not so much

[IceSpear]

So Sabato uses polling in Iowa in order to justify moving that to toss up, but blatantly ignores all the Kentucky polls in the past 7 months showing a competitive race and keeps it at likely R.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sabato fails to realize that he's just given Franken a higher chance of losing than McConnell, Shaheen, or Peters.

Sabato's bullishness on McConnell is so bad, he's probably failed to realize that McConnell's chances hae actually gone down in the last week or so, due to the withdrawal of independent candidate Ed Marksberry, who was shown disproportionately taking away votes from Grimes in some polls. I only give McConnell a 63% chance of victory now, down from 67% before Marksberry left the race. Meanwhile, my evaluation of Franken's odds remains stable at about 90%, with Shaheen at 85% and Peters at 75%.

[SWE]

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I feel like this part was directed at me

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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I feel like this part was directed at me

Did you email him or something? I highly doubt Sabato reads the posts on this forum frequently.

[SWE]

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I feel like this part was directed at me

Did you email him or something? I highly doubt Sabato reads the posts on this forum frequently.

I was obviously joking.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato missed the mark here. The sleeper rave is either Mnt or Ga. Perhaps CO. But really, MN.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

'History suggests'. Sure. Okay.

[Senator Cris]

CO Lean D as MN?

[Maxwell]

McFadden won't win, but it'll be interesting to see if his staff makes it close, because it certainly won't be his doing.

I think it's amazing that Braley is doing so poorly that Joni Ernst has the momentum. Then again, that's what you get for offending a huge voter base and then blatantly pandering to that same base.

[hcallega]

Sabato's ratings on GA and KY seem related to what Chuck Todd said this morning on MSNBC: Basically that Grimes and Nunn have a really good chance at getting to 48%-49% in the general election, but that he's having a hard time seeing them get to 50% with their state's demographics.

 Comparable to Dan Mongiardo, Tony Knowles, and Brad Carson in 2004, where they ran really good campaigns but the national mood and the simple reality of the states prevented them from winning.

Not that I agree with that assessment, but that what I see Sabato saying here.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think KS has a better chance of flipping than MN.

[ElectionsGuy]

Minnesota is not Lean D, I don't know why he did that. But MT, WV, and NH moves were needed, so that's good. Now he just needs to move KY to Lean R. I also think that if IA is a toss-up, CO should be too.

[NHLiberal]

Minnesota is not Lean D, I don't know why he did that. But MT, WV, and NH moves were needed, so that's good. Now he just needs to move KY to Lean R. I also think that if IA is a toss-up, CO should be too.

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I find this to be incredibly convincing reasoning as to why CO should not be switched to toss-up despite the polls, even with Iowa moved.