2016 Senate Primaries

[Dixie Reborn]

2014 so far has seen many interesting Senate primary challenges, but who will be challenged next cycle? Here's my list of potentially competitive races:

State: Alabama
Senator: Richard Shelby
Potential Challenger(s): Chad Mathis, Scott Beason

With Alabama’s Richard Shelby being a very long-serving senator, it is highly likely that groups like the Senate Conservatives Fund and Club For Growth will target him as a “career politician”. This year, Shelby has also donated to Thad Cochran’s campaign, thus fueling Tea Party hatred. Alabama’s being a runoff state will also serve to encourage national Tea Party groups to get involved. These groups would probably want to recycle failed AL-06 candidate Chad Mathis, who earned their support in 2014. Scott Beason may run if Mathis chooses not to, but that is unlikely, seeing as Mathis seems to be the type of guy who wants to get to Washington at all costs. However, Shelby is an exceedingly popular incumbent, and since Alabama has open primaries (meaning that Shelby could emulate Thad Cochran’s tactics), Shelby is very much favored.

Rating: Likely Shelby


State: Arizona
Senator: John McCain
Potential Challenger(s): Matt Salmon, Jan Brewer, David Schweikert

Assuming McCain runs for reelection in 2016, he would be the cycle’s senator most likely to lose their primary. He has horrendous approval ratings (including from his own party) and is viewed as too liberal on issues such as immigration and national security. He will almost certainly face a Tea Party challenge from one of the three above candidates (Salmon is most likely to run). Outside groups will spend huge on this race, and unlike Shelby, McCain doesn’t have an open primary to fall back on. In short, he’ll probably be 2016’s Richard Lugar.

Rating: Leans Tea Party


State: Idaho
Senator: Mike Crapo
Potential Challenger(s): Raul Labrador

In Idaho, Tea Party favorite Raul Labrador may challenge Mike Crapo. Like Shelby, Crapo has made donations to Thad Cochran’s campaign, leading to the Senate Conservatives Fund hinting at sponsoring a challenge to him in 2016. Labrador, who ran for house majority leader this year, has shown that he has no problem getting in battles with the GOP leadership. However, Labrador’s perceived softness on immigration may seriously hurt him among Tea types.

Rating: Leans Crapo


State: Kansas
Senator: Jerry Moran
Potential Challenger(s): Dennis Pyle

Since Jerry Moran is a member of the NRSC leadership, he will almost certainly be a Tea Party target in 2016. Dennis Pyle, who wanted to run against Pat Roberts in 2014 but was heavily pressured not to, may seek to challenge Moran. Either way, he’s a much stronger candidate than Milton Wolf, so Moran may have a race on his hands. Moran, however, as the head of the NRSC, will be obviously well funded and well protected.

Rating: Likely Moran


State: Missouri
Senator: Roy Blunt
Potential Challenger(s): TBD

Missouri’s Senator Roy Blunt really ticked off the SCF when he donated money to Thad Cochran’s campaign. Ever since then, they have been hinting at sponsoring a primary challenge towards him (like with Crapo and Shelby). Fortunately for Blunt, Missouri doesn’t have much of a Tea Party bench (other than Akin), so he’ll probably face a some dude or some rich dude opponent, if any at all.

Rating: Likely Blunt


State: North Carolina
Senator: Richard Burr
Potential Challenger(s): Greg Brannon

Richard Burr of North Carolina may be challenged from the right because of his perceived moderateness and refusal to support the 2013 government shutdown. Tea Partying physician Greg Brannon, who lost the GOP primary in 2014, may challenge Burr. Additionally, North Carolina’s 2016 race will be competitive even if Burr is the nominee, but will probably become Lean D if Brannon is, so Democrats will be highly motivated to Rat this primary.

Rating: Tossup


State: Utah
Senator: Mike Lee
Potential Challenger(s): Jason Chaffetz, Josh Romney

Unlike any other potential primaries mentioned here, Utah could see an “establishment” challenge to Tea Party favorite Mike Lee. Lee, who has played the role of Ted Cruz’s sidekick in the senate, has been a thorn in the leadership’s side since he was first elected. Both Jason Chaffetz and Mitt Romney’s son Josh Romney would be strong, well funded challengers. If one of them runs, he’ll most certainly receive the support of the Chamber of Commerce, the former because of his position on immigration, and the latter because of his last name. Lee, however, would have strong grassroots support.

Rating: Leans Lee


So, any comments? Did I miss anyone? Discuss below.

[IceSpear]

Murkowski for sure, unless she retires or runs as an independent. Isakson, Coats (insider, career politician, lobbyist, maybe Mourdock would challenge him?), Portman (for gay marriage).

[MATTROSE94]

Marco Rubio might be challenged by Allen West as well due to his past support for immigration reform. If West successfully primaries Rubio, it would automatically hand the race over to the Democratic nominee (possibly Patrick Murphy if he survives re-election this year).

[Del Tachi]

McCain probably retires, so I bet we'll be dealing with an open race in AZ. 

[SWE]

New Hampshire is another one to watch

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Not sure who they'd get to challenge her,  but she'd probably be able to defeat them quite easily.

[NHLiberal]

Let's not forget Crapo's DUI despite being a Mormon who supposedly abstained from alcohol. I don't think he'll run for reelection, and if he does I can't imagine he'll stand much of a chance.

[IceSpear]

New Hampshire is another one to watch

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Not sure who they'd get to challenge her,  but she'd probably be able to defeat them quite easily.

They couldn't even find a decent challenger for Scott Brown of all people, so I'm a bit skeptical they could for an incumbent Republican senator who actually lives in the state.

[NHLiberal]

State: Utah
Senator: Mike Lee
Potential Challenger(s): Josh Romney, Jason Chaffetz

If one of them runs, he’ll most certainly receive the support of the Chamber of Commerce, the former because of his position on immigration, and the latter because of his last name.

You sure you don't mean the former because of his last name and the latter because of his position on immigration?

And I think Lee would win easily. Burr, McCain, Ayotte, and Crapo if he runs would be the likeliest Senators to lose primaries in 2016.

[Dixie Reborn]

State: Utah
Senator: Mike Lee
Potential Challenger(s): Josh Romney, Jason Chaffetz

If one of them runs, he’ll most certainly receive the support of the Chamber of Commerce, the former because of his position on immigration, and the latter because of his last name.

You sure you don't mean the former because of his last name and the latter because of his position on immigration?

Fixed.

[LeBron]

Portman will almost certainly get a primary challenge:

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Zawistowski, a Tea Party leader in Ohio who was in charge of getting a primary challenger for Kasich this year (but ultimately failed after Ted Stevenot dropped out + a lack of recruitment time on Zawistowski's hands), now is suggesting with nearly 2 years to find a primary challenger, that Portman will get a primary challenger. Not only because of his support for gay marriage and immigration reform, but also giving away $25,000 of Ohio voters to fund racist ads in Mississippi which Tea Party groups around the state are calling on Portman to renounce or else.

Portman mainly benefits from incumbency and also, the Ohio Tea Party sucks, so if they do get somebody to run, they won't be as strong as a primary challenger in say, Arizona. However, after a fairly successful year for the Tea Party in lower-scale state legislative and central committee races, the most likely challengers will come from there. The best way to tell is whether or not the candidate was endorsed by the Ohio Citizens PAC, a Tea Party-funded group headed by Zawistowski, but there's also a few other top, far-right candidates who could really make it competitive including Taylor whose expressed interest in the past of running for Senate.

It will be far from an easy task to knock off Portman though when he's the Vice Chair of the NRSC and he has a war chest already of over $4M in the bank.

Declared Primary Challenger:
Michael Bickelmeyer, perennial candidate

Potential Primary Challengers:
Mary Taylor, Tea Party-backed Lieutenant Governor of Ohio
Brad Wenstrup, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 2nd District
Jim Jordan, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 4th District
Steve Stivers, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 15th District
Matt Lynch, State Rep and unsuccessful Tea Party candidate in OH-14 in 2014
J.D. Winteregg, unsuccessful Tea Party candidate in OH-8 in 2014
Kris Jordan, State Senator
John Becker, Ron Hood, Ron Young, State Reps
Tom Brinkman, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Paul Zeltwager, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Kyle Koehler, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Nino Vitale, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Scott Allegrini, Chris Sawicki, Linda O'Brien - unsuccessful Tea Party candidates for the Ohio House this year
Kelly Kohls, Caleb Davenport, Corey Shankleton, Kevin Solveson - unsuccessful Tea Party candidates for the Ohio Senate this year

[Suburbia]

If McCain is primaried, and wins, I don't see him retiring until 2022, where he'll be 86. I see Murkowski, Portman (he can run for president or be on ticket as VP), and Blunt being primaried.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Portman will almost certainly get a primary challenge:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Zawistowski, a Tea Party leader in Ohio who was in charge of getting a primary challenger for Kasich this year (but ultimately failed after Ted Stevenot dropped out + a lack of recruitment time on Zawistowski's hands), now is suggesting with nearly 2 years to find a primary challenger, that Portman will get a primary challenger. Not only because of his support for gay marriage and immigration reform, but also giving away $25,000 of Ohio voters to fund racist ads in Mississippi which Tea Party groups around the state are calling on Portman to renounce or else.

Portman mainly benefits from incumbency and also, the Ohio Tea Party sucks, so if they do get somebody to run, they won't be as strong as a primary challenger in say, Arizona. However, after a fairly successful year for the Tea Party in lower-scale state legislative and central committee races, the most likely challengers will come from there. The best way to tell is whether or not the candidate was endorsed by the Ohio Citizens PAC, a Tea Party-funded group headed by Zawistowski, but there's also a few other top, far-right candidates who could really make it competitive including Taylor whose expressed interest in the past of running for Senate.

It will be far from an easy task to knock off Portman though when he's the Vice Chair of the NRSC and he has a war chest already of over $4M in the bank.

Declared Primary Challenger:
Michael Bickelmeyer, perennial candidate

Potential Primary Challengers:
Mary Taylor, Tea Party-backed Lieutenant Governor of Ohio
Brad Wenstrup, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 2nd District
Jim Jordan, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 4th District
Steve Stivers, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 15th District
Matt Lynch, State Rep and unsuccessful Tea Party candidate in OH-14 in 2014
J.D. Winteregg, unsuccessful Tea Party candidate in OH-8 in 2014
Kris Jordan, State Senator
John Becker, Ron Hood, Ron Young, State Reps
Tom Brinkman, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Paul Zeltwager, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Kyle Koehler, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Nino Vitale, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Scott Allegrini, Chris Sawicki, Linda O'Brien - unsuccessful Tea Party candidates for the Ohio House this year
Kelly Kohls, Caleb Davenport, Corey Shankleton, Kevin Solveson - unsuccessful Tea Party candidates for the Ohio Senate this year

I doubt it and if he does, he'll wipe the floor with whatever some dude runs.

[LeBron]

Portman will almost certainly get a primary challenge:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Zawistowski, a Tea Party leader in Ohio who was in charge of getting a primary challenger for Kasich this year (but ultimately failed after Ted Stevenot dropped out + a lack of recruitment time on Zawistowski's hands), now is suggesting with nearly 2 years to find a primary challenger, that Portman will get a primary challenger. Not only because of his support for gay marriage and immigration reform, but also giving away $25,000 of Ohio voters to fund racist ads in Mississippi which Tea Party groups around the state are calling on Portman to renounce or else.

Portman mainly benefits from incumbency and also, the Ohio Tea Party sucks, so if they do get somebody to run, they won't be as strong as a primary challenger in say, Arizona. However, after a fairly successful year for the Tea Party in lower-scale state legislative and central committee races, the most likely challengers will come from there. The best way to tell is whether or not the candidate was endorsed by the Ohio Citizens PAC, a Tea Party-funded group headed by Zawistowski, but there's also a few other top, far-right candidates who could really make it competitive including Taylor whose expressed interest in the past of running for Senate.

It will be far from an easy task to knock off Portman though when he's the Vice Chair of the NRSC and he has a war chest already of over $4M in the bank.

Declared Primary Challenger:
Michael Bickelmeyer, perennial candidate

Potential Primary Challengers:
Mary Taylor, Tea Party-backed Lieutenant Governor of Ohio
Brad Wenstrup, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 2nd District
Jim Jordan, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 4th District
Steve Stivers, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 15th District
Matt Lynch, State Rep and unsuccessful Tea Party candidate in OH-14 in 2014
J.D. Winteregg, unsuccessful Tea Party candidate in OH-8 in 2014
Kris Jordan, State Senator
John Becker, Ron Hood, Ron Young, State Reps
Tom Brinkman, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Paul Zeltwager, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Kyle Koehler, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Nino Vitale, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Scott Allegrini, Chris Sawicki, Linda O'Brien - unsuccessful Tea Party candidates for the Ohio House this year
Kelly Kohls, Caleb Davenport, Corey Shankleton, Kevin Solveson - unsuccessful Tea Party candidates for the Ohio Senate this year

I doubt it and if he does, he'll wipe the floor with whatever some dude runs.

We'll see.    There will be more opportunities to recruit an elected official of the Tea Party to run in 2016 than this year and Portman has infuriated the Tea Party as much as Kasich did. Judging from a lot of Zawistowski's recent comments, he's sounding like he won't hold back this time.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In the Democratic aisle, it is worth noting that the Inouye/Schatz/Hanabusa seat is up for election again. So the winner of this year might have to go through the whole rigmarole of Hawaii's nasty Democratic primaries again.

No other Democrats are in much danger of primaries I think, but I could be wrong.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Portman will almost certainly get a primary challenge:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Zawistowski, a Tea Party leader in Ohio who was in charge of getting a primary challenger for Kasich this year (but ultimately failed after Ted Stevenot dropped out + a lack of recruitment time on Zawistowski's hands), now is suggesting with nearly 2 years to find a primary challenger, that Portman will get a primary challenger. Not only because of his support for gay marriage and immigration reform, but also giving away $25,000 of Ohio voters to fund racist ads in Mississippi which Tea Party groups around the state are calling on Portman to renounce or else.

Portman mainly benefits from incumbency and also, the Ohio Tea Party sucks, so if they do get somebody to run, they won't be as strong as a primary challenger in say, Arizona. However, after a fairly successful year for the Tea Party in lower-scale state legislative and central committee races, the most likely challengers will come from there. The best way to tell is whether or not the candidate was endorsed by the Ohio Citizens PAC, a Tea Party-funded group headed by Zawistowski, but there's also a few other top, far-right candidates who could really make it competitive including Taylor whose expressed interest in the past of running for Senate.

It will be far from an easy task to knock off Portman though when he's the Vice Chair of the NRSC and he has a war chest already of over $4M in the bank.

Declared Primary Challenger:
Michael Bickelmeyer, perennial candidate

Potential Primary Challengers:
Mary Taylor, Tea Party-backed Lieutenant Governor of Ohio
Brad Wenstrup, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 2nd District
Jim Jordan, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 4th District
Steve Stivers, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 15th District
Matt Lynch, State Rep and unsuccessful Tea Party candidate in OH-14 in 2014
J.D. Winteregg, unsuccessful Tea Party candidate in OH-8 in 2014
Kris Jordan, State Senator
John Becker, Ron Hood, Ron Young, State Reps
Tom Brinkman, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Paul Zeltwager, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Kyle Koehler, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Nino Vitale, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Scott Allegrini, Chris Sawicki, Linda O'Brien - unsuccessful Tea Party candidates for the Ohio House this year
Kelly Kohls, Caleb Davenport, Corey Shankleton, Kevin Solveson - unsuccessful Tea Party candidates for the Ohio Senate this year

I doubt it and if he does, he'll wipe the floor with whatever some dude runs.

We'll see.    There will be more opportunities to recruit an elected official of the Tea Party to run in 2016 than this year and Portman has infuriated the Tea Party as much as Kasich did. Judging from a lot of Zawistowski's recent comments, he's sounding like he won't hold back this time.

Never heard of Zawistowski, sounds like a some dude to me

[Miles]

I'd wait to see what happens after November to make a determination about Burr. If Hagan wins, I'm almost sure he'll retire.

[LeBron]

Portman will almost certainly get a primary challenge:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Zawistowski, a Tea Party leader in Ohio who was in charge of getting a primary challenger for Kasich this year (but ultimately failed after Ted Stevenot dropped out + a lack of recruitment time on Zawistowski's hands), now is suggesting with nearly 2 years to find a primary challenger, that Portman will get a primary challenger. Not only because of his support for gay marriage and immigration reform, but also giving away $25,000 of Ohio voters to fund racist ads in Mississippi which Tea Party groups around the state are calling on Portman to renounce or else.

Portman mainly benefits from incumbency and also, the Ohio Tea Party sucks, so if they do get somebody to run, they won't be as strong as a primary challenger in say, Arizona. However, after a fairly successful year for the Tea Party in lower-scale state legislative and central committee races, the most likely challengers will come from there. The best way to tell is whether or not the candidate was endorsed by the Ohio Citizens PAC, a Tea Party-funded group headed by Zawistowski, but there's also a few other top, far-right candidates who could really make it competitive including Taylor whose expressed interest in the past of running for Senate.

It will be far from an easy task to knock off Portman though when he's the Vice Chair of the NRSC and he has a war chest already of over $4M in the bank.

Declared Primary Challenger:
Michael Bickelmeyer, perennial candidate

Potential Primary Challengers:
Mary Taylor, Tea Party-backed Lieutenant Governor of Ohio
Brad Wenstrup, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 2nd District
Jim Jordan, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 4th District
Steve Stivers, U.S. Representative from Ohio's 15th District
Matt Lynch, State Rep and unsuccessful Tea Party candidate in OH-14 in 2014
J.D. Winteregg, unsuccessful Tea Party candidate in OH-8 in 2014
Kris Jordan, State Senator
John Becker, Ron Hood, Ron Young, State Reps
Tom Brinkman, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Paul Zeltwager, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Kyle Koehler, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Nino Vitale, Tea Partier who got elected to the State House this year
Scott Allegrini, Chris Sawicki, Linda O'Brien - unsuccessful Tea Party candidates for the Ohio House this year
Kelly Kohls, Caleb Davenport, Corey Shankleton, Kevin Solveson - unsuccessful Tea Party candidates for the Ohio Senate this year

I doubt it and if he does, he'll wipe the floor with whatever some dude runs.

We'll see.    There will be more opportunities to recruit an elected official of the Tea Party to run in 2016 than this year and Portman has infuriated the Tea Party as much as Kasich did. Judging from a lot of Zawistowski's recent comments, he's sounding like he won't hold back this time.

Never heard of Zawistowski, sounds like a some dude to me

Oh he isn't running. He's way too old for that.

He's the Chairman of the Portage County Tea Party, President of the Ohio Citizens PAC, and he nearly became Chairman of the ORP last year until Kasich passed him over to choose Matt Borges, the establishment guy. Zawistowski is basically seen as the ceremonial statewide head of the Tea Party and what he says, he'll make happen. After his good friend Ted Stevenot dropped out of the Governor race, he still was optimistic of finding a new Kasich challenger, so Zawistowski will fight Portman tooth and nail these next 2 years and will go through the list of potential challengers - see who's interested, see who isn't.

Point being, Portman will get a primary one way or another and it will depend on who Zawistowski gets and how good of a campaign they run on how much Portman would need to spend to fend him/her off.

[SWE]

If McCain is primaried, and wins, I don't see him retiring until 2022, where he'll be 86. I see Murkowski, Portman (he can run for president or be on ticket as VP), and Blunt being primaried.

If McCain wins his primary, he'll just lose in the general.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If McCain is primaried, and wins, I don't see him retiring until 2022, where he'll be 86. I see Murkowski, Portman (he can run for president or be on ticket as VP), and Blunt being primaried.

If McCain wins his primary, he'll just lose in the general.

If McCain runs and wins the primary, he's probably safe in november. Carmona or Napolitano would come close, but they'd likely need a democratic wave to actually defeat mccain. If McCain does retire or lose his primary though, the seat is toss-up/tilt r.

[SWE]

If McCain is primaried, and wins, I don't see him retiring until 2022, where he'll be 86. I see Murkowski, Portman (he can run for president or be on ticket as VP), and Blunt being primaried.

If McCain wins his primary, he'll just lose in the general.

If McCain runs and wins the primary, he's probably safe in november. Carmona or Napolitano would come close, but they'd likely need a democratic wave to actually defeat mccain. If McCain does retire or lose his primary though, the seat is toss-up/tilt r.

No,  for McCain to win he'd need either a GOP wave or a weak challlenger, like Napolitano.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016#Arizona
Someone with near universal name recognition who can't even hit 40 in the polls doesn't generally have a good outlook for reelection.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I'd wait to see what happens after November to make a determination about Burr. If Hagan wins, I'm almost sure he'll retire.

You mean you think he'll retire instead of running a tough race in 2016 if Hagan wins during midterm 2014?

[Del Tachi]

Why do you think Burr will retire?

[Del Tachi]

Projected Retirements for 2016:

John McCain (R-AZ)
Johnny Isakson (R-GA)
Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Mike Lee (R-UT)

[NHLiberal]

Projected Retirements for 2016:

John McCain (R-AZ)
Johnny Isakson (R-GA)
Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Mike Lee (R-UT)

Disagree about Lee. Why do you think he'll retire? Because he'll run for President? Agreed about the rest. Though I think Burr very well could retire rather than fighting a tough race if Hagan wins in 2014 (which is looking pretty likely), and I think it's quite possible that Grassley does retire despite what he's been saying.

[henster]

I think Kirk will face a primary against Walsh or some perennial candidate.