Who will win in Iowa?

[Never]

Ernst will win something like 50-48; Braley's just running too terrible of a campaign to win. 

2 points sounds about where the margin will be for this race. Still, while Ernst has quite a bit going for her in the form of her opponent, her own issues and Iowa's Democratic tilt might be enough to save Braley. Ultimately, I'm thinking Braley will win unless Ernst can somehow hold up her current performance until November.

[Never]

Where does this whole joke about Bruce TRYING to lose come from? Sorry. This race wasn't really on my radar until it tightened with Ernst.

The fact that Republicans nominated a joke candidate and are still competitive tells you everything you need to know about Braley.

Uh, no. The joke candidate would have been Sam Clovis.

Yea, Clovis would've completely blown it. That being said, Ernst was a far worse general election candidate than Mark Jacobs. Still, it says something about how good of a candidate Jacobs was that he started out ahead and ended up in 3rd place.

Considering that Mark Jacobs' establishment support faltered in the primaries against Ernst, it seems that he could have ended up being one of those self-funded candidates who ultimately failed to deliever in the general, like Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman. Considering that Braley led Jacobs by a greater margin than Ernst before the primary on June 3, I don't think we could definitively say that Jacobs would have been a stronger nominee.