Control of the Senate might not be settled on November 5

[Mister Mets]

A fun detail about the 2014 Senate elections: Georgia and Louisiana offer General Election runoffs if no candidate gets fifty percent of the vote.

Louisiana may be the most likely state to have a runoff since they have a jungle primary system (although Bill Cassidy's most prominent Republican challenger dropped out.)

Georgia is a close enough election, with two first-time candidates who might make serious gaffes. You might have a situation in which the libertarian gets enough votes to keep Perdue, or Nunn, from getting an outright majority first time around. In the Virginia gubernatorial election, Terry McAulliffe got 47.5% to Ken Cuccinelli's 45.2%, which would send a race in Georgia to a runoff.

Imagine if Republicans gain four or five Senate seats, but Georgia and Louisiana go to runoff. This would mean that control of the Senate comes down to two elections in later months.

Just an interesting possibility.

[GaussLaw]

I think this is actually very very likely....I think what you described is the most likely outcome this year.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Republicans are always favored in runoffs simply due to turnout dropoff, however, if these races had national attention, I wonder if the Dems could possibly make it close. Obviously, the DSCC needs to plan to keep their organizational structure in LA and GA in place beyond the November 5th, but they will also need to figure out new ways of turning out youth and minorities for the runoffs. Does anyone know how they handled the '08 GA runoff?

[Miles]

Yes; I try not to think about this

[Mister Mets]

Republicans are always favored in runoffs simply due to turnout dropoff, however, if these races had national attention, I wonder if the Dems could possibly make it close. Obviously, the DSCC needs to plan to keep their organizational structure in LA and GA in place beyond the November 5th, but they will also need to figure out new ways of turning out youth and minorities for the runoffs. Does anyone know how they handled the '08 GA runoff?

The Georgia '08 runoff is a good precedent, since that was an important election. It would have given Democrats a supermajority. There was a significant dropoff in voters, although it was also a presidential election year.

Chambliss got 49.8% in the General, to Democrat Jim Martin's 46.8%.
Chambliss went on to win the runoff 57.4% to 42.6%.

Turnout declined from 3,752,577 to 2,137,956   .

The risk with turnout is that strategies that get young voters and African American voters excited might send old white people to the polls as well, but in the other direction.

If Louisiana and Georgia went to runoffs in November with Republicans picking up 5-6 other seats (IE- West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas and maybe Colorado), you'd probably have a situation in which Republicans are given a strong chance of winning both elections, which would create an interesting political environment. There would be high stakes, but a clear favorite.

[ElectionsGuy]

I do think that control won't be settled until the (likely) Louisiana runoff. On Nov. 4th, Republicans have 4-5 other opportunities to pick up seats (besides the obvious three that they will gain), and those are AR, NC, AK, IA, and CO. I think they'll successfully do two (Arkansas and Alaska, but Alaska won't be settled until late in the night because it doesn't close until 1:00 AM EST), and Louisiana becomes the ultimate target of victory for republicans, and the ultimate target of defense for democrats.

While I do think Georgia can go to a runoff, I think it'll be less important and Perdue has a much greater chance of winning by that point anyway.

[Joe Biden 2020]

This is a very plausible scenario.  A couple super close elections that could be crucial to the Republican's hopes of taking control.

[NHLiberal]

I don't think this will happen. I'm pretty convinced that we will win North Carolina, Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa on Election Day, and even if we don't win Kentucky, that secures 50 seats for us then to lose Louisiana and Georgia in runoffs. This all of course assumes a Democratic loss in Arkansas, which isn't necessarily a guarantee.

[Never]

I don't think this will happen. I'm pretty convinced that we will win North Carolina, Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa on Election Day, and even if we don't win Kentucky, that secures 50 seats for us then to lose Louisiana and Georgia in runoffs. This all of course assumes a Democratic loss in Arkansas, which isn't necessarily a guarantee.

Well, yes, the Democrats could win all four races in NC/AK/CO/IA, but it's possible that at least a few Senate races will take several days to call, possibly including any number of those seats that you mentioned. On the Wednesday after the 2012 elections, two Senate races were still too close. A day after the 2010 elections, no less than three races were still undecided (interestingly, all three candidates holding a lead at that time - Murkowski, Murray, and Bennet - went on to ultimately win their races). Also, a day or two after 2008's election, three Senate races were still too close to call, just like in 2010. So, it is possible that Louisiana and Georgia might not be the only states that don't give us final results on November 5. Personally, I could realistically envision all four of the races you mentioned being too close to call on Wednesday morning, and if I were a betting man, I'd say at least one will be.

OP's scenario is one that I could see happening in November.

[NHLiberal]

I don't think this will happen. I'm pretty convinced that we will win North Carolina, Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa on Election Day, and even if we don't win Kentucky, that secures 50 seats for us then to lose Louisiana and Georgia in runoffs. This all of course assumes a Democratic loss in Arkansas, which isn't necessarily a guarantee.

Well, yes, the Democrats could win all four races in NC/AK/CO/IA, but it's possible that at least a few Senate races will take several days to call, possibly including any number of those seats that you mentioned. On the Wednesday after the 2012 elections, two Senate races were still too close. A day after the 2010 elections, no less than three races were still undecided (interestingly, all three candidates holding a lead at that time - Murkowski, Murray, and Bennet - went on to ultimately win their races). Also, a day or two after 2008's election, three Senate races were still too close to call, just like in 2010. So, it is possible that Louisiana and Georgia might not be the only states that don't give us final results on November 5. Personally, I could realistically envision all four of the races you mentioned being too close to call on Wednesday morning, and if I were a betting man, I'd say at least one will be.

OP's scenario is one that I could see happening in November.

Oh wow. I didn't realize that happens so often. I'll change my phrasing to say that I predict control of the Senate will not depend on runoffs.