Upshot: GOP Senate takeover up to 60%

[Miles]

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These are the YouGov numbers they came up with: (for the competitive races)

GA: 50/44 Perdue
KY: 50/46 McConnell
AR: 50/46 Cotton
MI: 48/47 Land
LA: 47/46 Cassidy
IA: 48/47 Ernst
NC: 48/47 Tillis
AK: 49/37 Begich
CO: 51/47 Udall

Some loom a bit odd; Hagan has been up in the last batch of polls and Land hasn't been leading since April.

Some of the other ones just seem off. They have Durbin only winning 51/43 but Merkley winning 55/41.

[ElectionsGuy]

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These are the YouGov numbers the came up with: (for the competitive races)

GA: 50/44 Perdue
KY: 50/46 McConnell
AR: 40/46 Cotton
MI: 48/47 Land
LA: 47/46 Cassidy
IA: 48/47 Ernst
NC: 48/47 Tillis
AK: 49/37 Begich
CO: 51/47 Udall

Some loom a bit odd; Hagan has been up in the last batch of polls and Land hasn't been leading since April.

Some of the other ones just seem off. They have Durbin only winning 51/43 but Merkley winning 55/41.

Would this mean that they expect Pryor to win by 6? I'm a bit confused there.

This does look very weird, I can see Begich winning, but not by 12. I also don't know how, as you said, how Tillis and Land are one point ahead. There are some oddities in there like Alexander only ahead 48-35 or 48-33. I myself would think flipping the senate would have 50-55% chance, and I think the control will rely more on LA, AK, and NC than MI, IA, or CO. I do have some faith in them however, since they did run the tests.

[Miles]

Would this mean that they expect Pryor to win by 6? I'm a bit confused there.

Sorry, typo. Cotton up 50/46.

[ElectionsGuy]

Would this mean that they expect Pryor to win by 6? I'm a bit confused there.

Sorry, typo. Cotton up 50/46.

Oh, that makes sense

[free my dawg]

This poll has Cory Booker and Tom Udall up by only 7. Throw this entire thing in the trash.

Also worth noting that this poll's logic says Mark Begich is in better shape than Lindsey Graham.

[Free Bird]

This whole thing is weird

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A large number of people who might not be representative of the population as a whole?
Don't worry, these polls have to be super accurate.
Please ignore this link.
http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5168/

[The Other Castro]

Aaaaaand back to some sense of normalcy from Upshot: "According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, it’s a tossup. The Republicans have about a 53% chance of gaining a majority."

[Free Bird]

Aaaaaand back to some sense of normalcy from Upshot: "According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, it’s a tossup. The Republicans have about a 53% chance of gaining a majority."

Perhaps due to that one poll showing Begich up by like 12 from a crappy pollster?

[The Other Castro]

That, and they decided to actually look at past polls for once.

[dmmidmi]

Aaaaaand back to some sense of normalcy from Upshot: "According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, it’s a tossup. The Republicans have about a 53% chance of gaining a majority."

Perhaps due to that one poll showing Begich up by like 12 from a crappy pollster?

And they realized they're the only pollster that has shown Land leading Peters since early spring.

[Person Man]

So, the thinking is that Begich, Hagan and Udall will probably win by a small but reasonable margin...but Braley won't make it and neither will Pryor or Landrieu?

[illegaloperation]

YouGov is a BS pollster.

It has Brownback leading Davis by 10 points, 47 percent to 37 percent in the Kansas governor race.

[IceSpear]

YouGov is a BS pollster.

It has Brownback leading Davis by 10 points, 47 percent to 37 percent in the Kansas governor race.

They also have Dick Durbin, Tom Udall, and Cory Booker only ahead by single digits.