YouGov/NY Times/CBS News polls of all states with Gov. races
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Author Topic: YouGov/NY Times/CBS News polls of all states with Gov. races  (Read 5151 times)
JRP1994
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« on: July 27, 2014, 01:18:12 PM »
« edited: July 29, 2014, 01:11:23 AM by Tender Branson »

Summary of all the Governor polls:

AK: 56-29 Parnell (R)
AL: 59-31 Bentley (R)
AR: 48-45 Hutchinson (R)*
AZ: 46-34 Jones (R)
CA: 57-33 Brown (D)
CO: 47-47
CT: 48-41 Foley (R)*
FL: 48-43 Scott (R)
GA: 50-42 Deal (R)
HI: 40-38 Aiona (R)*
IA: 51-40 Branstad (R)
ID: 56-34 Otter (R)
IL: 46-43 Rauner (R)*
KS: 52-40 Brownback (R)
MA: 52-36 Coakley (D)
MD: 52-40 Brown (D)
ME: 52-39 Michaud (D)*
MI: 46-44 Snyder (R)
MN: 53-37 Dayton (D)
NE: 49-41 Ricketts (R)
NH: 53-38 Hassan (D)
NM: 52-43 Martinez (R)
NV: 57-32 Sandoval (R)
NY: 56-32 Cuomo (D)
OH: 49-44 Kasich (R)
OK: 49-40 Fallin (R)
OR: 52-42 Kitzhaber (D)
PA: 53-39 Wolf (D)*
RI: 48-24 Taveras (D)
SC: 56-37 Haley (R)
SD: 66-28 Daugaard (R)
TN: 55-32 Haslam (R)
TX: 54-37 Abbott (R)
VT: 52-27-15 Shumlin (D)
WI: 48-46 Walker (R)
WY: 53-25 Mead (R)

* = pickup

Excel-file with crosstabs:

http://nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/07/25/leo-charts/assets/yougov-cbs-nyt-2014-07-26.xlsx
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SawxDem
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2014, 01:20:12 PM »

Deal+9? Scott+6? Brownback by 13?

Yeah, I'm not taking this seriously.
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windjammer
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2014, 01:22:55 PM »

Yougov=terrible
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2014, 01:23:20 PM »

I'd expect Huthinson and Snyder to be up more given how the others are performing.

The Senate numbers also seemed GOP-friendly.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2014, 01:23:56 PM »

Online pollster, right?
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2014, 01:24:44 PM »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/493447432395825153
NYT/CBS/YouGov crosstabs for every Senate and Governors race. It is an excel file.
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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2014, 01:38:28 PM »

In Maine they have Cutler only pulling 5% of the vote and Michaud in better shape than Wolf (for more ridiculous bullsh*t).
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2014, 03:04:18 PM »

Also we have Aiona +2 over Abercrombie in HI (40%-38% with 14% for others) but we haven't the  numbers of Aiona vs. Ige.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2014, 03:10:50 PM »

Wolf only up 13%? We got a pure toss up, folks.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2014, 04:03:58 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2014, 04:16:05 PM by OC »

Dems will win MI, IL, PA, RI and ME.  And NM or FL. For a net pickup of 3-4 seats.
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Person Man
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« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2014, 04:15:58 PM »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/493439403730436097

Walker+2
Scott+6
Deal+9
CO-tied
Hutchinson+3
Rauner+3
Brownback+13
Kasich+6
Snyder+3
Foley+7

Moo. Moo. Moo.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2014, 04:43:07 PM »

YouGov isn't a real poll, it's a weird self-selected Internet opinion survey.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2014, 06:23:18 PM »

Kasich is only up 6 and Rauner is only up 3 when Brownback is up 13, Deal is up 9, and Foley is up 7? Yeah right.
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LeBron
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« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2014, 12:47:42 AM »

Kasich is only up 6 and Rauner is only up 3 when Brownback is up 13, Deal is up 9, and Foley is up 7? Yeah right.
What do you mean only? The last poll (an internal, but still a lot more reliable than this one) had Kasich only up 1 and that was before FitzGerald started airing a 2 week along TV ad across the state. Magellan and Rassy, polls shown to have R biases, had Kasich up by a similar margin that YouGov has him up by.

We can agree though that this poll is junk considering there's no way in heck the criminal, the segregationist, the purger, or CT 2010 is up by that much.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2014, 12:54:48 AM »

From what I remember, YouGov wasn't really that bad in both 2008 and 2012 with their state polls:

http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/2012%20Election%20results%20table_Actual_YouGovLV.pdf

But some of these polls here make not much sense, for example Maine-Gov. (which has Cutler in single-digits, or SD - which doesn't even include Pressler who has 15%+ in other polls).

YouGov is polling 3 more waves until November, so things might change a bit until then.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2014, 01:26:16 AM »

Yeah, Brownback SHOULD be safer than everyone on that list, but he definitely isn't...

Wish I could believe this, but there are just too many flaws. For example, Sullivan gets 0% of the Democratic vote against Begich for AK-SEN...I find that difficult to believe.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2014, 01:29:22 AM »

Yeah, Brownback SHOULD be safer than everyone on that list, but he definitely isn't...

Wish I could believe this, but there are just too many flaws. For example, Sullivan gets 0% of the Democratic vote against Begich for AK-SEN...I find that difficult to believe.

KS could just be trolling around a bit: It really depends how much support Browncrook gets among Republicans. If they vote like SUSA says, Davis wins. If they come home to him in the election, then he wins ...
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2014, 08:23:26 AM »

Kasich is only up 6 and Rauner is only up 3 when Brownback is up 13, Deal is up 9, and Foley is up 7? Yeah right.
What do you mean only? The last poll (an internal, but still a lot more reliable than this one) had Kasich only up 1 and that was before FitzGerald started airing a 2 week along TV ad across the state. Magellan and Rassy, polls shown to have R biases, had Kasich up by a similar margin that YouGov has him up by.

We can agree though that this poll is junk considering there's no way in heck the criminal, the segregationist, the purger, or CT 2010 is up by that much.


Kasich up 6, or less, seems reasonable. All I'm saying is that Kasich is in a MUCH better position than Brownback, Deal, or Foley, and these polls do not reflect that.
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King
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« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2014, 10:56:40 AM »

These polls are way too white, even for midterms.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #19 on: July 28, 2014, 11:57:27 AM »

These polls are way too white, even for midterms.

Remember that the Excel-file with the crosstabs only shows the unweighted numbers for race etc., which means the weighted figures are likely less white than what is shown in there.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #20 on: July 28, 2014, 07:22:34 PM »

http://www.wfsb.com/story/26130220/foley-leads-malloy-in-new-governors-race-poll
R: 42% D: 33% U: 5%
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #21 on: July 28, 2014, 07:29:25 PM »

Isn't this one of these YouGov polls?
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #22 on: July 28, 2014, 07:31:58 PM »

Still proves that this is not gonna be a cruiser, despite what some think
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SawxDem
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« Reply #23 on: July 28, 2014, 07:54:20 PM »

Isn't this one of these YouGov polls?

And it checks out.

Take it back, throw this poll in the trash. Do not press go, do not collect $200.

Still proves that this is not gonna be a cruiser, despite what some think

I thought it was fairly well-known.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #24 on: July 28, 2014, 08:12:16 PM »

I thought it was fairly well-known.

It is fairly well-known that it's not gonna be a cruiser, but I would say that for the most part people tend to overestimate Malloy's chances. If I had a gun to my head, I'd say without hesitation that Foley wins. I'd handicap his chances around 55%.
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