Sabato August House races updates

[Miles]

Article.



Basically the point of the article is that, in post-Depression history, the GOP's high-water mark in the House was 246 (in 1946). They could surpass that if they get at least 2/3 of the competitive races.

[smoltchanov]

I understand almost everything, except MN-08. Nolan is a lazy campaigner or Mills is SO strong?

[NHLiberal]

Agreed with these changes except MN-8. It's too bad Dems couldn't get stronger candidates in PA-6 and VA-10. I will be working on my House predictions today so I'll edit this later with my final tally.

[Miles]

I understand almost everything, except MN-08. Nolan is a lazy campaigner or Mills is SO strong?

Mills actually outraised Nolan by almost $200K (!) last quarter. Roll Call had a piece recently on why Nolan could be vulnerable.

Also, couple that with the trend of the area. Its Democratic downballot, but there are several counties in the district where Obama in 2012 did worse than Kerry in 2004.

[Brewer]

I understand almost everything, except MN-08. Nolan is a lazy campaigner or Mills is SO strong?

Mills actually outraised Nolan by almost $200K (!) last quarter. Roll Call had a piece recently on why Nolan could be vulnerable.

Also, couple that with the trend of the area. Its Democratic downballot, but there are several counties in the district where Obama in 2012 did worse than Kerry in 2004.

More conservative voters are moving up from the southern parts of the state, and the failure to get Democrats out to vote this year hangs over this midterm like a black cloud after Oberstar in 2010. Plus Mills has been running ads since months ago, and Nolan just started recently. ((Or rather, the House Majority PAC just started.)) So IMHO it's still at least Lean Dem.