Who will win the Senate control in November?

[Suburbia]

R Pickup: WV, SD, AR, MT, NC,
D Pickup: KY

R + 5
D + 1

[Vega]

R Pickup: WV, SD, AR, MT, NC,
D Pickup: KY

R + 5
D + 1

If the Democrats lose North Carolina and Arkansas, than they aren't winning Kentucky.

[NHLiberal]

R Pickup: WV, SD, AR, MT, NC,
D Pickup: KY

R + 5
D + 1

If the Democrats lose North Carolina and Arkansas, than they aren't winning Kentucky.

Not necessarily. Despite what the preliminary Senate models show that always put leaning races way too safe at the start, it's very reasonable to argue that Democrats have a higher chance of gaining Kentucky than holding Arkansas. Polls show Cotton doing better than McConnell. Personally, I have Republicans winning SD, WV, AR, LA, and MT and Dems picking up KY for R+4.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems lose initially 5 seats which they win NC and either win AK/AR combo.

Wildcards LA/Ga runoff and Angus King will tip the balance after Nov.

But, with almost IL senate 2016, a safe Dem pickup, he will stay on in Dem majority.
 

[Panda Express]

Dems lose initially 5 seats which they win NC and either win AK/AR combo.

Wildcards LA/Ga runoff and Angus King will tip the balance after Nov.

But, with almost IL senate 2016, a safe Dem pickup, he will stay on in Dem majority.
 

Hey, do you mind if I ask you a personal question?

[NHLiberal]

Dems lose initially 5 seats which they win NC and either win AK/AR combo.

Wildcards LA/Ga runoff and Angus King will tip the balance after Nov.

But, with almost IL senate 2016, a safe Dem pickup, he will stay on in Dem majority.
 

Why would Arkansas and Alaska be won or lost in a combo, and why would North Carolina have to be the opposite result? I tend to think that Democrats will hold Alaska and North Carolina while Republicans pick up Arkansas, but all three of these races could conceivably be won/lost by either party, with the toughest being Arkansas for the Dems.

And I'm not totally comfortable calling IL-Sen a safe Dem pickup. In fact, I think Republicans have lower odds in Wisconsin than Illinois. I'm of the mind that Kirk will retire rather than run a tough race, but I think if he does run he could be competitive. I could see Dems taking the race for granted and/or getting a weak candidate, and despite the Democratic lean of Illinois, Mark Kirk is a damn good Senator.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook has rated IL and Co lean Dem, while Pa, WI are tossup/tilt GOP and NV tossup lean Dem.

I am assuming Dems will nominate Robin Kelly to energize the blk and latino support. Kirk has moderate appeal.

[NHLiberal]

Cook has rated IL and Co lean Dem, while Pa, WI are tossup/tilt GOP and NV tossup lean Dem.

I am assuming Dems will nominate Robin Kelly to energize the blk and latino support. Kirk has moderate appeal.

I don't think Cook has rated 2016 Senate races yet. At least I couldn't find it. Can you give me the link?

[RR1997]

GOP pickups:
West Virginia
South Dakota
Montana
Arkansas
Louisiana
Iowa

Overall the GOP net gain 6 seats

Republicans: 51
Democrats: 49

I've changed my mind on Georgia. My old prediction showed a Democratic Party pickup in the state, but I now predict that Perdue will win in Georgia.

[Vega]

Personally, I have Republicans losing SD, WV, AR, LA, and MT and Dems picking up KY for R+4.

Do you mean Republicans Winning?

[NHLiberal]

Personally, I have Republicans losing SD, WV, AR, LA, and MT and Dems picking up KY for R+4.

Do you mean Republicans Winning?

Yes. Fixed.

[Free Bird]

Personally, I have Republicans losing SD, WV, AR, LA, and MT and Dems picking up KY for R+4.

Do you mean Republicans Winning?

Yes. Fixed.

Kentucky is still wishful thinking

[MATTROSE94]

I think that the Republicans will only end up picking up West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas and Louisiana, so the Democrats will end up keeping control of the Senate due to Vice President Joe Biden serving as the tie-breaking vote.

In 2016, I can see the Democrats potentially picking up between 5-7 seats, especially if Hillary Clinton mounts a strong campaign. In 2018, however, I feel that the Republicans will end up retaking the Senate due to the fact that there are several vulnerable Democrats up for re-election that year such as Joe Manchin, Joe Donnelly, Jon Tester, Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp and also a few more that could be defeated by the right Republican candidate such as Bob Menendez, Tim Kaine, Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey and Martin Heinrich.

[rbt48]

GOP pickups:
West Virginia
South Dakota
Montana
Arkansas
Louisiana
Iowa

Overall the GOP net gain 6 seats

Republicans: 51
Democrats: 49

I've changed my mind on Georgia. My old prediction showed a Democratic Party pickup in the state, but I now predict that Perdue will win in Georgia.

This plus North Carolina and Alaska.

Republicans 53, Democrats 47.

[NewYorkExpress]

Republicans gain Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Colorado and Iowa.

Democrats gain Kentucky, and Mississippi (something tells me that primary mortally wounded Cochran)