Who will win the Senate control in November?

[Senator Cris]

Well? The previous poll shows Democrats at 55% and Republicans at 45%.

[Flake]

The Democrats

[ElectionsGuy]

Leaning on republicans still.

[Bojack Horseman]

Democrats will lose seats, but still control the chamber. All hell isn't breaking loose just yet.

[Senator Cris]

I think that the Republicans will pick up South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia, for a total of 46 seats for Republicans and 45 for Democrats.
I consider Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana and North Carolina as Toss-Up seats and Michigan as Dem Lean seat, for a total of 46 seats for Republicans and 46 for Democrats.
About the Toss-Up seats, I think that Georgia and Louisiana will go in a runoff, with the Republicans favored. Also I think that Republicans have great chances in Arkansas and Kentucky and that Democrats have great chances in North Carolina and Colorado, for a total of 50 seats for Republicans and 48 for Democrats.
The remaining seats are Alaska and Iowa. i think that Alaska is a pure Toss-Up but with Begich that is favored to win. Iowa is Toss-Up/Tilt D, for a total of 50 seats for Republicans and Democrats.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Tough call, but right now I'd say 50-50, so technically the Democrats. Not that a 50-50 split where Manchin is one of the Democrats is much of a majority. Republicans pick up WV, SD, MT, AR, and LA.

[SWE]

There'll be a 50/50 split, so a democratic majority

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will.lose a couple 3-4 seats but keep control. Win ARK and NC and maybe even KY.

[LeBron]

Democrats. The GOP would need to run the board completely in SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, would need to hold their 2 seats, and would have to win a Democratic favoring seat in CO, IA, MI, NC or AK. It's far from impossible, but Senate control tilts in the Dems favor.

[CountyTy90]

They couldn't do it in 2010. And 2014's no 2010. So... no. I think Democrats will lose a few seats, but...

DEMOCRATIC HOLD

[free my dawg]

They couldn't do it in 2010. And 2014's no 2010. So... no. I think Democrats will lose a few seats, but...

DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Not necessarily. In 2010 the Republicans had to fight on hostile turf, and the only races they could have remotely gained ground on were in two swing states. Only two of their pickups were in red states.

Now, most of their pickup opportunities are on very friendly turf. South Dakota and West Virginia were pretty much DOA before Rockefeller and Johnson hung it up, and Montana's open race made it tilt towards the Republicans (even with Schweitzer). Alaska has a lot of ground to make up, and Begich is running the best campaign out of anyone, but Republicans double Democrats in the state. Arkansas is looking like Oklahoma 2.0 soon, even with two elitist Republicans as their candidates, so that leaves Louisiana, the sixth state on red turf. If they can force a runoff here, Landrieu's strategy of localization fails. A vote for Landrieu is a vote for Obama's party to control the Senate, and with that, Republicans take it.

[Never]

They couldn't do it in 2010. And 2014's no 2010. So... no. I think Democrats will lose a few seats, but...

DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Not necessarily. In 2010 the Republicans had to fight on hostile turf, and the only races they could have remotely gained ground on were in two swing states. Only two of their pickups were in red states.

Now, most of their pickup opportunities are on very friendly turf. South Dakota and West Virginia were pretty much DOA before Rockefeller and Johnson hung it up, and Montana's open race made it tilt towards the Republicans (even with Schweitzer). Alaska has a lot of ground to make up, and Begich is running the best campaign out of anyone, but Republicans double Democrats in the state. Arkansas is looking like Oklahoma 2.0 soon, even with two elitist Republicans as their candidates, so that leaves Louisiana, the sixth state on red turf. If they can force a runoff here, Landrieu's strategy of localization fails. A vote for Landrieu is a vote for Obama's party to control the Senate, and with that, Republicans take it.

^^^

[SPC]

Democrats' lead on the generic ballot combined with Democratic overperformance in virtually every contest (save Montana and Iowa) leads me to predict they will hold on.

[Dixie Reborn]

'Publicans will win. Not sure how many seats though.

[Free Bird]

'Publicans will win. Not sure how many seats though.

I'd say either six or eight. If Colorado goes, so does Iowa, and vice-versa.

[Free Bird]

And this poll's results totally doesn't show this site's bias in contrast to many other major projectors like RCP and I guess FiveThirtyEight. No sir.

[The Other Castro]

And this poll's results totally doesn't show this site's bias in contrast to many other major projectors like RCP and I guess FiveThirtyEight. No sir.

RCP bases its projections solely on polling (even if its rassy) and FiveThirtyEight's official model hasn't launched yet and hasn't been updated since early June.

[Del Tachi]

At this point the GOP is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, NC, IA, AR, LA, SD, MT, and AK at the moment.   

[dmmidmi]

At this point the GOP is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, NC, IA, AR, LA, SD, MT, and AK at the moment.   

Eight seats?

So, the Republicans are going to have a night that is essentially the inverse of this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2008

Yeah. Probably not.

[SWE]

'Publicans will win. Not sure how many seats though.

I'd say either six or eight. If Colorado goes, so does Iowa, and vice-versa.

Nah, the Democratic candidate in Colorado hasn't been actively trying to lose his race.  Can't really say the same about Iowa.

[The Other Castro]

I can realistically see Republicans gaining anywhere between 3-8 seats, but I think they will most likely only pickup 4 or 5 seats. SD, WV, and MT are pretty much gone for Democrats, and assuming that Georgia and Kentucky stay Republican, I only really see Arkansas and Louisiana going Republican at this point. The odds of a Republican pickup in Iowa, Colorado, or Alaska pretty much cancel out the odds of a Democrat pickup/hold in Kentucky, Georgia, Louisiana, or Arkansas in my mind.

[NHLiberal]

At this point the Democratic Party is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, AR, LA, SD, and MT at the moment.   

[Free Bird]

At this point the Democratic Party is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, AR, LA, SD, and MT at the moment.   

lol editing quotes

[Ogre Mage]

At this point the GOP is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, NC, IA, AR, LA, SD, MT, and AK at the moment.  

I would bet money that the GOP will not have a net gain of eight seats.

[Never]

At this point the GOP is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, NC, IA, AR, LA, SD, MT, and AK at the moment.  

I would bet money that the GOP will not have a net gain of eight seats.

Well, what number would you bet on? I'd bet on a GOP net gain of 6-7 seats myself, but now I'm wondering what you are predicting.