Who will win the Senate control in November?

[Ogre Mage]

At this point the GOP is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, NC, IA, AR, LA, SD, MT, and AK at the moment.  

I would bet money that the GOP will not have a net gain of eight seats.

Well, what number would you bet on? I'd bet on a GOP net gain of 6-7 seats myself, but now I'm wondering what you are predicting.

I think Senate Democrats will only lose 3-4.  However, I could see a net loss of 6 if things go badly.  I would be willing to bet that the GOP net gain will be six or less.

[Never]

At this point the GOP is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, NC, IA, AR, LA, SD, MT, and AK at the moment.  

I would bet money that the GOP will not have a net gain of eight seats.

Well, what number would you bet on? I'd bet on a GOP net gain of 6-7 seats myself, but now I'm wondering what you are predicting.

I think Senate Democrats will only lose 3-4.  However, I could see a net loss of 6 if things go badly.  I would be willing to bet that the GOP net gain will be six or less.

Fair enough, what you mentioned could happen. It seems like this year there is a particularly high number of close Senate races, and all of them could go to one party or another in a uniform manner on election night. So, if the GOP bombs in November, the party could very well max out at a net gain of 3.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm still confident we'll manage to hold the line, with at least 51 seats.

[Del Tachi]

At this point the GOP is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, NC, IA, AR, LA, SD, MT, and AK at the moment.   

Eight seats?

So, the Republicans are going to have a night that is essentially the inverse of this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2008

Yeah. Probably not.

The only seat the Republicans win in my scenario that Romney didn't carry in 2012 is Iowa, and I think that Braley's underwhelming campaign will ensure that we have a neck-and-neck race there come November.  The other states on the list are Romney states, and President Obama's popularity ratings are not going to be helping Democratic incumbents in states like NC, LA AR, and AK.  MT, SD, and WV are heavily favored for the GOP right now so I don't anticipate any qualms with those calls. 

We're going to be looking at a lot of tossup races come November 4, and I think Obama's unpopularity will cause most of them to break towards the GOP.

I mean, Democrats picked up 6 seats in 2006 and the map wasn't nearly as favorable to them as it is for the GOP this year.  Also, it seems like Republicans have learned their lesson and have refrained from nominating right-wing Tea Party nutjobs in competitive states. 

   

[GaussLaw]

At this point the GOP is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, NC, IA, AR, LA, SD, MT, and AK at the moment.  

I would bet money that the GOP will not have a net gain of eight seats.

Um.......it is definitely within the realm of possibility.

If the GOP can get momentum on the generic ballot, which is very possible in the last 100 days, and they can lock down KY, then I could easily see them get the net gain Del Tachi is predicting.  I would also throw in Colorado and Michigan if they are lucky.  I know this forum hates Scott Brown, but he could win if we see the Generic Ballot shift to R+5.  It isn't likely, but NH is extremely elastic in Senate elections, and I could see them break hard to the right if we see a national swing as well.

That being said, I am much more optimistic for the GOP than this forum.

[Ogre Mage]

At this point the GOP is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, NC, IA, AR, LA, SD, MT, and AK at the moment.  

I would bet money that the GOP will not have a net gain of eight seats.

Um.......it is definitely within the realm of possibility.

If the GOP can get momentum on the generic ballot, which is very possible in the last 100 days, and they can lock down KY, then I could easily see them get the net gain Del Tachi is predicting.  I would also throw in Colorado and Michigan if they are lucky.  I know this forum hates Scott Brown, but he could win if we see the Generic Ballot shift to R+5.  It isn't likely, but NH is extremely elastic in Senate elections, and I could see them break hard to the right if we see a national swing as well.

That being said, I am much more optimistic for the GOP than this forum.

It is also "within the realm of possibility" that Senate Democrats could only suffer a net loss of only one or two seats.  I did not predict that because it is most unlikely.  I think the scenario you present is based on a lot of not very plausible ifs.  Scott Brown -- that certainly is chuckle worthy.  The man cannot even figure out which state he is in.

Momentum on the generic ballot?  Well, the GOP has not shown any up till this point.  Certainly nothing like they had in 2010 or the Democrats had in 2006.  But perhaps you are thinking it is just going to suddenly materialize. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/29/upshot/new-generic-ballot-surveys-dont-show-signs-of-republican-wave.html?_r=0

[free my dawg]

I know this forum hates Scott Brown, but he could win if we see the Generic Ballot shift to R+5.  It isn't likely, but NH is extremely elastic in Senate elections...

Scott Brown is not winning anything, dude. His campaign is imploding more than I could ever imagine, and it's looking like his win in Massachusetts was a fluke.

[GaussLaw]

I know this forum hates Scott Brown, but he could win if we see the Generic Ballot shift to R+5.  It isn't likely, but NH is extremely elastic in Senate elections...

Scott Brown is not winning anything, dude. His campaign is imploding more than I could ever imagine, and it's looking like his win in Massachusetts was a fluke.

Yes, but he is down high single digits, and New Hampshire is very elastic and known for breaking hard near election time.  I still give him a 10% chance of winning, which is about the chance of a complete GOP landslide. 

BTW, the GOP regaining the lead on the generic ballot is not at all unprecedented.  This cycle the party has had the lead multiple times and very well could take it back quite soon.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I know this forum hates Scott Brown, but he could win if we see the Generic Ballot shift to R+5.  It isn't likely, but NH is extremely elastic in Senate elections...

Scott Brown is not winning anything, dude. His campaign is imploding more than I could ever imagine, and it's looking like his win in Massachusetts was a fluke.

Yes, but he is down high single digits, and New Hampshire is very elastic and known for breaking hard near election time.

This isn't about the state. It's about the candidate.

[GaussLaw]

I know this forum hates Scott Brown, but he could win if we see the Generic Ballot shift to R+5.  It isn't likely, but NH is extremely elastic in Senate elections...

Scott Brown is not winning anything, dude. His campaign is imploding more than I could ever imagine, and it's looking like his win in Massachusetts was a fluke.

Yes, but he is down high single digits, and New Hampshire is very elastic and known for breaking hard near election time.

This isn't about the state. It's about the candidate.

Fair enough........my point is probably moot come November.  But even a bad candidate can limp over the finish line in a wave for one party.  There were plenty of crap House candidates that won in 2010 like Joe Walsh..........I know the Senate is different, but I am just saying that people are writing off Brown a bit too quickly.  He still can win; he probably won't, but he still can.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Leaning on republicans still.

[dmmidmi]

At this point the GOP is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, NC, IA, AR, LA, SD, MT, and AK at the moment.   

Eight seats?

So, the Republicans are going to have a night that is essentially the inverse of this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2008

Yeah. Probably not.

The only seat the Republicans win in my scenario that Romney didn't carry in 2012 is Iowa, and I think that Braley's underwhelming campaign will ensure that we have a neck-and-neck race there come November.  The other states on the list are Romney states, and President Obama's popularity ratings are not going to be helping Democratic incumbents in states like NC, LA AR, and AK.  MT, SD, and WV are heavily favored for the GOP right now so I don't anticipate any qualms with those calls. 

We're going to be looking at a lot of tossup races come November 4, and I think Obama's unpopularity will cause most of them to break towards the GOP.

I mean, Democrats picked up 6 seats in 2006 and the map wasn't nearly as favorable to them as it is for the GOP this year.  Also, it seems like Republicans have learned their lesson and have refrained from nominating right-wing Tea Party nutjobs in competitive states. 

   

What you're doing is looking at the map, and ignoring the environmental and external factors (getting bogged down in two wars, an insufficient response to Hurricane Katrina, slower-than-expected economic growth resulting from the Bush tax cuts) that made a year like 2006 such a good year for Democrats.

Even in 2004 and 2010--universally considered good years for the GOP--they only picked up four and six seats, respectively.

A change of six seats from one party to the other is a historically good night for either party. There is absolutely no reason to believe, at this point, that either party will have a historically good or bad night.

[GaussLaw]

Leaning on republicans still.

[SWE]

If the candidate was literally anyone other than Scott Brown, NH could fall in a wave.

[moderatevoter]

If the candidate was literally anyone other than Scott Brown, NH could fall in a wave.

Add Bob Smith to that list.

[free my dawg]

If the candidate was literally anyone other than Scott Brown, NH could fall in a wave.

Well considering the most conservative member of the House (who's on the record as a birther who applauded the booing of a gay soldier and an Agenda 21 loon) was considering a run as the alternative, the NHGOP was boned from the start.

Never underestimate my state's Republican Party's ability to blow elections. They're basically a step above the Florida Democrats.

[Vega]

The Democrats, with the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Biden.

[NHLiberal]

If the candidate was literally anyone other than Scott Brown, NH could fall in a wave.

Well considering the most conservative member of the House (who's on the record as a birther who applauded the booing of a gay soldier and an Agenda 21 loon) was considering a run as the alternative, the NHGOP was boned from the start.

Never underestimate my state's Republican Party's ability to blow elections. They're basically a step above the Florida Democrats.

[The Other Castro]

The Democrats, with the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Biden.

This, with no Dem pickups and Republicans winning SD, MT, WV, AR, and LA (in runoff).

[Dr. Liberty]

Republicans or tie.

[ShadowRocket]

Democrats, though I still think it'll be a 50/50 split. GOP is able to gain six seats, but one of Grimes or Nunn is able to pull off an upset.

[nclib]

I am optimistic that the Dems will marginally hold on.

If the candidate was literally anyone other than Scott Brown, NH could fall in a wave.

Well considering the most conservative member of the House (who's on the record as a birther who applauded the booing of a gay soldier and an Agenda 21 loon) was considering a run as the alternative, the NHGOP was boned from the start.

Never underestimate my state's Republican Party's ability to blow elections. They're basically a step above the Florida Democrats.

Who?

[Frodo]

I still expect the GOP to take control -if polls after Labor Day suggest otherwise, I will modify my predictions (which I haven't changed since January).  Until then, I'll stick to my guns. 

[Alreet]

R Pickup: MT, WV, SD, AK, LA, AR, IA, CO
D Pickup: KT

R +7
D -7

[windjammer]

Not sure yet