Which of these countries legalize gay marriage before 2020? (poll)

[Blue3]

Here's the current map:


Dark Blue = legal same-sex marriage
Dark Blue-Green = same-sex marriage from other jurisdictions is recognized
Orange = government has announced intention to legalize
Light Blue = federal recognition of marriages at the state level
Light Blue-Green = civil unions

[Tender Branson]

You have left out Austria, which could legalize it fully after 2018 with a Red-Green-Pink coalition.

[Tender Branson]

And Sweden should probably be Finland ...

[swl]

I guess that you mean Finland instead of Sweden. I voted Ireland, USA, Finland, Germany, and Australia.

Very confident: Ireland, USA, Finland.
Somewhat confident: Germany, Austria, Australia.

The rest of Europe (Italy, Greece, eastern Europe) will implement civil unions first and leave a few years before legalizing same-sex marriage. So it won't happen before 2020 in most of them.
Maybe: Italy, Switzerland and Czech Republic.
Definitely not: Russia, in any African or Muslim country.
No idea about countries like Nepal/Thailand.

These are very cautious predictions, and I wouldn't be surprised if more European or American countries legalize it before 2020.

[Blue3]

Yes, if any mod can change Sweden to Finland, and add Austria, please make the edit.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Ireland and Finland will, Austria probably, Germany maybe, definitely not any Eastern bloc/African/Middle Eastern country (other than Israel)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yeah... I'm almost... like 99,9999999%, certain that Sweden will legalize it before 2020... like maybe in.... I don't know.... May 2009?!?!?! Just a theory.

[Famous Mortimer]

Israel still won't even have secular marriage. Assuming they still exist in 2020.

[Stranger in a strange land]

USA, Mexico, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Thailand, and Nepal (which should have a constitution by then).

Taiwan should be included in the poll too, as it's probably closer than anywhere else in East Asia.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Bump, because Estonia just legalised a form of civil union, the first former Soviet state to do so. A very close ruling (40-38) but a very strong rebuke to the anti-gay hysteria sweeping the area due to the pernicious influence of a certain local state.

[politicus]

Gay marriage has also become legal in Greenland this year. Not that it matter much population wise, but it does add to the map.

The Greenlandic parliament actually agreed to do it in principle back in 2010, but since marriage regulation has to be approved by the Folketing they had to wait for Denmark (2012) and then there were some trouble with finalizing the ritual in Greenlandic. Gay couples have been able to register their civil union in church and get a congratulation speech from the vicar since 2012.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Huh, wikipedia must have missed that.