Discuss w/maps: What are each party's ceilings in the 2014 Senate races?
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  Discuss w/maps: What are each party's ceilings in the 2014 Senate races?
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Author Topic: Discuss w/maps: What are each party's ceilings in the 2014 Senate races?  (Read 1644 times)
JRP1994
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« on: July 28, 2014, 03:44:58 PM »

Question 1: If the Democrats reach their highest imaginable-yet-realistic ceiling in the 2014 Senate races, what would the map look like?

Question 2: If the Republicans reach their highest imaginable-yet-realistic ceiling in the 2014 Senate races, what would the map look like?
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2014, 04:03:44 PM »

Highest imaginable-yet-realistic ceiling (Dems): Only lose SD; and MT gain KY, MS, and GA (+1 seat)
Highest imaginable-yet-realistic ceiling (GOP): Gains in SD, WV, MT, AR, NC, AK, LA, IA, and CO (+9 seats)

Dem Bloodbath: No losses; gains in KY, MS, GA, KS, and SC-reg (+5 seats)
GOP Bloodbath: Gains in SD, WV, MT, AR, NC, AK, LA, IA, CO, MI, NH, MN, OR, and VA (+14 seats)
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2014, 04:36:46 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2014, 08:35:21 PM by ElectionsGuy »

Republican Ceiling:

R+10: SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, NC, AK, IA, CO, MI



Democrat Ceiling:

R+1: SD, WV, MT, -KY, -GA

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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2014, 08:18:47 PM »

Republican Ceiling:

R+10: SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, NC, AK, IA, CO, MI



R+11! You forgot Gillespie!
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2014, 08:21:39 PM »

R+2 (win SD, WV, MT, lose KY) to R+9 (SD/WV/MT/AR/AK/IA/LA/NC/CO).
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2014, 08:22:25 PM »

R+2 (win SD, WV, MT, lose KY) to R+9 (SD/WV/MT/AR/AK/IA/LA/NC/CO).

You don't think a Democratic win in Georgia is possible even in their absolute CEILING? C'mon...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2014, 08:29:48 PM »

The runoff is why. I could see Nunn winning a first-round plurality, certainly.
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SWE
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« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2014, 08:32:52 PM »

R+2 (win SD, WV, MT, lose KY) to R+9 (SD/WV/MT/AR/AK/IA/LA/NC/CO).
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2014, 08:36:54 PM »

Republican Ceiling:

R+10: SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, NC, AK, IA, CO, MI



R+11! You forgot Gillespie!

Actually, R+12 would be the beltway media ceiling because Brown and Gillespie. Also, Maine should be blue on that map, oops.
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2014, 09:04:12 PM »

Fun story: If somehow this year winds up as R +2, Fox News and other right-wing media sources will still spin it is a dramatic repudiation of Barack Obama's socialist policies.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2014, 09:32:13 PM »

Democratic ceiling:

D+1
R wins SD, loses KY and GA. I'm not even sure if a loss in MT is possible at all given the plagiarism scandal but I decided to leave it in.

Republican ceiling

R+11
R wins WV, SD, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, MI, CO and NH. Again, I'm not sure if a win in NH is possible at all, but I decided to give Brown the benefit of the doubt here.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2014, 09:40:42 PM »

Democratic ceiling:

D+1
R wins SD, loses KY and GA. I'm not even sure if a loss in MT is possible at all given the plagiarism scandal but I decided to leave it in.

Republican ceiling

R+11
R wins WV, SD, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, MI, CO and NH. Again, I'm not sure if a win in NH is possible at all, but I decided to give Brown the benefit of the doubt here.

This looks about right, though like you said, I'd probably take off MT for Dems/NH for Reps.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2014, 10:17:26 PM »

Republican Realistic Ceiling: Gain SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, NC, AK, CO, IA, MI, NH, MN (+12) (AK will be removed from this if Miller wins the primary)
Republican Absolute Bloodbath: Gain SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, NC, AK, CO, IA, MI, NH, MN, OR, VA, NJ, IL (+16)
Democratic Realistic Ceiling: Gain KY and GA, lose SD and WV (EVEN)
Democratic Absolute Bloodbath: Gain KY, GA, MS, TX, KS, SC-Graham, NE (+7) (TN will be added to this if Alexander loses his primary)







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Never
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« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2014, 10:28:55 PM »

Republican Realistic Ceiling: Gain SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, NC, AK, CO, IA, MI, NH, MN (+12) (AK will be removed from this if Miller wins the primary)
Republican Absolute Bloodbath: Gain SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, NC, AK, CO, IA, MI, NH, MN, OR, VA, NJ, IL (+16)
Democratic Realistic Ceiling: Gain KY and GA, lose SD and WV (EVEN)
Democratic Absolute Bloodbath: Gain KY, GA, MS, TX, KS, SC-Graham, NE (+7) (TN will be added to this if Alexander loses his primary)

I'd be thrilled if the Republican Absolute Bloodbath happened - it would be a sight to see Cheesy

Overall, this seems like a realistic depiction of the ceilings.
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2014, 10:26:12 AM »

Fun story: If somehow this year winds up as R +2, Fox News and other right-wing media sources will still spin it is a dramatic repudiation of Barack Obama's socialist policies.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2014, 12:34:54 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2014, 01:56:46 PM by MATTROSE94 »

Democratic Ceiling:

D+8 (63-37 Democrat majority)

Republican Ceiling:

R+16 (61-39 Republican majority)

Realistically, there will probably be a 4-5 seat gain for the Republicans in the midterms.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2014, 12:47:00 PM »

Democratic Ceiling:

D+9 (64-36 Democrat majority)

Republican Ceiling:

R+17 (62-38 Republican majority)

Realistically, there will probably be a 4-5 seat gain for the Republicans in the midterms.
Massachusetts is not part of the Republican Ceiling the candidate there is one of the worst in the country. Same goes for Maine on the democratic map.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2014, 01:57:21 PM »

Democratic Ceiling:

D+9 (64-36 Democrat majority)

Republican Ceiling:

R+17 (62-38 Republican majority)

Realistically, there will probably be a 4-5 seat gain for the Republicans in the midterms.
Massachusetts is not part of the Republican Ceiling the candidate there is one of the worst in the country. Same goes for Maine on the democratic map.
I edited both states in my post.
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Never
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« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2014, 02:35:13 PM »

Democratic Ceiling:

D+8 (63-37 Democrat majority)

Republican Ceiling:

R+16 (61-39 Republican majority)

Realistically, there will probably be a 4-5 seat gain for the Republicans in the midterms.

On the Democratic ceiling, do both Tim Scott and Lindsey Graham lose in SC? Based on this map, I thought one or the other would lose since you listed eight seats as flipping over, but I just wanted to check.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2014, 09:20:46 AM »

Democratic Ceiling:

D+8 (63-37 Democrat majority)

Republican Ceiling:

R+16 (61-39 Republican majority)

Realistically, there will probably be a 4-5 seat gain for the Republicans in the midterms.

On the Democratic ceiling, do both Tim Scott and Lindsey Graham lose in SC? Based on this map, I thought one or the other would lose since you listed eight seats as flipping over, but I just wanted to check.
I have Tim Scott surviving and Lindsey Graham losing re-election.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #20 on: July 30, 2014, 10:09:55 AM »

Democratic ceiling:

D+1
R wins SD, loses KY and GA. I'm not even sure if a loss in MT is possible at all given the plagiarism scandal but I decided to leave it in.

Republican ceiling

R+11
R wins WV, SD, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, MI, CO and NH. Again, I'm not sure if a win in NH is possible at all, but I decided to give Brown the benefit of the doubt here.

This is correct.
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #21 on: July 30, 2014, 09:15:15 PM »

Dem ceiling 59-41. Wins in MT, SD, MN, IA, KS, CO, WV, KY, AR, LA, GA, NC, AK and ME.

GOP ceiling 56-44 wins in MT, OR, AK, SD, IA, AR, LA, GA, NC, WV, MI
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« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2014, 09:43:40 PM »

Democratic ceiling:

D+1
R wins SD, loses KY and GA. I'm not even sure if a loss in MT is possible at all given the plagiarism scandal but I decided to leave it in.

Republican ceiling

R+11
R wins WV, SD, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, MI, CO and NH. Again, I'm not sure if a win in NH is possible at all, but I decided to give Brown the benefit of the doubt here.

This is correct.
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Vega
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« Reply #23 on: July 30, 2014, 10:14:08 PM »



Dems +2.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2014, 11:34:37 AM »

D + 2 (wins KY and GA) to R +11 (wins AK/AR/CO/IA/LA/MT/MI/NH/NC/SD/WV)

Mega D Landslide: D +4 (wins KY/GA/KS/MS)
Mega R Landslide: R +15  (wins AK/AR/CO/IA/LA/MT/MN/MI/NH/NJ/OR/NC/SD/VA/WV)
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