KY: Bluegrass Poll: McConnell leading by 2

[IceSpear]

What a nice poll.

You're really celebrating that McConnell is up a measly 2 points in Kentucky?

[IceSpear]

More confirmation that McConnell has the same odds of being re-elected as Mark Warner, and better odds than Franken.

Also, I just looked at the crosstabs. Why is there only a 1 point Democratic advantage in partisan identification? Isn't Kentucky supposed to have a double digit advantage, even though a large portion of them are Dixiecrats?

[IceSpear]

Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

It does?

[IceSpear]

Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

It does?

Didn't the Dems lead in that almost totally meaningless generic ballot for most of 2010 and 1994?

Around this point in 2010, Republicans lead by 3-6 points.

[IceSpear]

Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

It does?

Didn't the Dems lead in that almost totally meaningless generic ballot for most of 2010 and 1994?

Around this point in 2010, Republicans lead by 3-6 points.

And '94?

Beats me, but it was relatively accurate in 2008, 2010, and 2012. That seems more relevant than an election from 2 decades ago from before poll aggregation became a thing.