IL-Reboot Illinois/WeAskAmerica: Gov. Quinn (D) down 14

[Tender Branson]

47% Rauner (R)
33% Quinn (D)

The poll is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,087 likely Illinois voters statewide. 30 percent of calls were to cell phone contacts. The poll, conducted by We Ask America on July 28, 2014, has a margin of error of +/-2.97 percentage points.

http://www.rebootillinois.com/2014/07/29/editors-picks/mattdietrich/reboot-illinois-poll-bruce-rauners-lead-grows-illinois-governors-race/21531

[Maxwell]

Can someone other than WAA poll this race?

[ElectionsGuy]

Can someone other than WAA poll this race?

[Franzl]

I'm afraid the good guys really will lose this time.

Oh well, not like Rauner will be able to do anything with Madigan around.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There's an argument for moving this from Lean R to Strong Lean R, but I'd like to see a new poll on this race that doesn't come from WeAskAmerica or Illinois Mirror first (something we haven't seen since April). Illinois's democratic leanings are powerful as well. IL-Gov Remains at Lean R.

[muon2]

Can someone other than WAA poll this race?

As I've said in the past, when someone wants to pay another pollster, then it will happen. Pollsters don't work for free.

Historically the big media outlets in IL have been cheap on polling before Labor Day, and even then they don't track frequently. Smaller media websites with a specific political focus like Reboot IL and Capitol Fax are more likely to engage in polling at this time of year.

[IceSpear]

Can someone other than WAA poll this race?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, the Cook Cnty area will come in heavily for Quinn at last moment.

[Person Man]

This will still look very bad if we lose here. Its still probably too soon to say we will have to send our guy here to campaign here in 2016, but that won't stop Republicans from talking trash.

[henster]

They had Brady up by 10 in 2010 that's all we need to know about them.

[IceSpear]

This will still look very bad if we lose here. Its still probably too soon to say we will have to send our guy here to campaign here in 2016, but that won't stop Republicans from talking trash.

Huh? If Quinn loses it's because he's a horrible candidate, it has nothing to do with 2016. The only reason why he's not DOA is because Illinois is so Democratic to begin with.

[Person Man]

This will still look very bad if we lose here. Its still probably too soon to say we will have to send our guy here to campaign here in 2016, but that won't stop Republicans from talking trash.

Huh? If Quinn loses it's because he's a horrible candidate, it has nothing to do with 2016. The only reason why he's not DOA is because Illinois is so Democratic to begin with.

Kind of like what I have been hearing about Brownback? I wonder what are the chances that Davis or Rauner would simply be seen as a placeholder until the state's party nominates someone who is uncontroversial.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm afraid the good guys really will lose this time.

Nah, I think a fourteen point lead means Rauner is pretty safe.

[Person Man]

Is Rauner a moderate, a Karl Rove type or a TEA bagger?

[Pandaguineapig]

Is Rauner a moderate, a Karl Rove type or a TEA bagger?

Fiscally he's pretty conservative put he's moderate to liberal on social issues

[NHLiberal]

Is Rauner a moderate, a Karl Rove type or a TEA bagger?

Fiscally he's pretty conservative put he's moderate to liberal on social issues

Really bad on unions & minimum wage in particular but not at all a cultural warrior

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think these double digit Rauner polls has been discredited.

It oversamples seniors. Yes, Quinn is a dull candidate, and Vallas was the phenomenal one. But wait til Sept before any can be certain Rauner is unbeatable.

[Mr. Illini]

They had Brady up by 10 in 2010 that's all we need to know about them.

[free my dawg]

>taking WAA in illinois seriously

[Person Man]

Maybe if Quinn is a joke and Rauner being a moderate could be enough.

[MATTROSE94]

Again, the Cook Cnty area will come in heavily for Quinn at last moment.

I agree with you 100%. Pat Quinn is pretty safe considering Cook County.

[Franzl]

Again, the Cook Cnty area will come in heavily for Quinn at last moment.

I agree with you 100%. Pat Quinn is pretty safe considering Cook County.

Ab incumbent down 14 is not safe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

YouGov which have non scientific polls and Rassy had Rauner lead three. Granted, his lead is about where Brady was, down seven. Sept polls will tell the story.

Also, Sun times periodically conduct poll as well.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Again, the Cook Cnty area will come in heavily for Quinn at last moment.

I agree with you 100%. Pat Quinn is pretty safe considering Cook County.

If the winner of Cook County always wins a given statewide race, then how did Kirk win in 2010 (Sen.), how did George Ryan (Gov.) win in 1998, and how did Peter Fitzgerald (Sen.) also win in 1998? All Cook County losers, yet all won. There's also the fact that Rod Blagoevich only won in '06 (Gov.) because it was an EXCELLENT democratic year, and the fact that the main reason Quinn won in 2010 was because Brady was a tea partier. In an alternate universe where one or both of those elections goes the other way, the democrat would still win Cook County. Cook County isn't everything in IL, just like the Philadelphia area isn't everything in PA. To actually win statewide, Quinn not only has to win Cook County with a margin similar to what he had in 2010, but he also needs to perform well enough outside Cook County. He needs both parts - not one or the other - to win.

All the evidence - Quinn's low approval rating, the polling we have, the fact that Rauner is a stronger nominee than Brady ever was, points to Rauner having a chance of victory a touch above 60%. IL's democratic leanings are powerful and this isn't 2010, but when it's not a presidential election, Illinois isn't as blue as one may think, and Quinn is one of the most hated incumbents in the country and hasn't been a good governor at all. Don't get me wrong, this race will not be a double-digit loss for Quinn and it will take hours to call on election night, particularly since Cook County is always the fastest at counting votes, but thus far, all the evidence points to a mid to high single digit loss for Quinn.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

He isn't going to lose by 14, but winning Cook doesn't mean much if you don't steamroll in Cook whilst being slaughtered everywhere else. Comparing it to 2010 is probably a touch problematic as it was, in-essence, Quinn's election as Governor.

He BARELY won in 2010 and his approvals are pretty terrible... there's a chance his numbers might improve in spots where the Dem vote wasn't especially interested, the counties I look to Du Kalb, Du Page and Champaign.