PPP - Very Close Race in CO, unless Christie is Rep. Nominee

[Person Man]

This must be the 10th poll in a roll to suggest that Colorado is looking at least R+5 compared to the national average.

That would be something considering the state's recent trends. I hope what we're seeing in the polls actually holds up in 2016. Even if Republicans ultimately lose the Colorado it would be good to see a swing state like it shifting in the party's direction compared to 2012.

The ultimate question is how it would be happening. I think a lot of growth of Colorado Springs's Fundamentalist population shifted it right in the late 90s. I'm not so sure how it could happen again demographically. I'm thinking that the libertarians (which Democrats spoiled the good will of the last 1 year or so) and the miners are just becoming more organized if they start doing better.

[Person Man]

This must be the 10th poll in a roll to suggest that Colorado is looking at least R+5 compared to the national average.

That would be something considering the state's recent trends. I hope what we're seeing in the polls actually holds up in 2016. Even if Republicans ultimately lose the Colorado it would be good to see a swing state like it shifting in the party's direction compared to 2012.

The ultimate question is how it would be happening. I think a lot of growth of Colorado Springs's Fundamentalist population shifted it right in the late 90s. I'm not so sure how it could happen again demographically. I'm thinking that the libertarians (which Democrats spoiled the good will of the last 1 year or so) and the miners are just becoming more organized if they start doing better.

It probably would be the libertarian element of Colorado that comprises the bulk of the shift. I wouldn't imagine it being the Religious Right (or minorities for that matter), considering how poorly the Republican candidates are doing against Clinton in the South and other diverse states.

I imagine if Clinton or the Democrats lose, especially to someone who isn't Rand Paul, this region will probably swing back if it ultimately swings at all. I was pretty sure in 2010 that Republicans were going to start doing very well out here. I imagine that Colorado would be as red as Nebraska or Missouri is now if they adopted a "50 states" approach to civil liberties. Else, it could be that the median voter will be pitting gun control advocates against the religious right for decades to come.  

Clinton does seem to depolarize on civil liberties but as we get closer, they may become front in center and she may lose the election the way Gore did by doing poorly out west and not quite well enough to carry a single southern state or she could do very well by cobbling up a large coalition.

[Person Man]

Why is Clinton "relatively weak" in Colorado?

One liberal I talked to said they just don't like dynasties. Another was probably the gun control legislation of the 90s.

Or it could be Democrats are under polled this early. Obama was in the 30s in Colorado by the end of 2009. He still won the state by 5.

[Person Man]

The key difference being that the Latte states are winnable, the upper south is not. 45% in TN instead of 39% is still losing.

Hillary can win MO though in a decent D year whereas Obama needed an utter wave.  Same with AZ and AR.  

Honestly, I think the GOP winning CO and the Dems winning Arkansas and Missouri would be great for our national environment.......I would love to see liberals stop talking about how Republicans are just uneducated rednecks and Republicans talking about "real America" and how they win in "God's country" or something like that.  Shifting the electoral map like that would do a lot to defuse this pesky rhetoric.

A situation where social issues are deemphasized would be a positive development.

[Person Man]

Colorado is a creative class 'latte liberal' state, Hillary wont have the same appeal as Obama did among those wealthy suburban socially moderate suburbanites like Obama did. Hillary is a very strong candidate, but she certainly has her weaknesses in certain states.

I would also expect her to run poorly compared to the national average in states like Virginia (Nova) , Oregon and Washington. Obama was a perfect fit for those states, like Hillary seems to be in the upper south.

It might run deeper than this.  Obama in 2012 lagged Kerry 2004 in many of the Western ski counties.  Also, in VA/OR Hillary has been polling even with or better than Obama generally.  The problem states for Hillary seem to be CO/IA/NH.  Libertarian/dove issues?

I think the reason Obama didn't do too well in the mountains was because the coal industry really pushed back in 2012.

I think name recognition will change a lot of races that seem impossible at this point. 

[Person Man]

No Democratic nominee for President has won Florida by a 10% margin in a binary choice since FDR in 1944. Not even LBJ in 1964.

But the actual numbers were 54-33. Surely the vast majority of those undecideds would go to Christie in the end.

In 2008, there was a poll that had Obama down by 20 in Florida, or at least North Carolina as soon as Palin was selected.

I think this time next year would be a good time to start looking at the relative bases and problems of the candidates.