Will Republicans win any of the "Collar Counties" in Illinois in 2016?
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  Will Republicans win any of the "Collar Counties" in Illinois in 2016?
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Question: Will Republicans win any of the "Collar Counties" in Illinois in 2016?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No, but could come really close in a couple
 
#3
No way
 
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Total Voters: 26

Author Topic: Will Republicans win any of the "Collar Counties" in Illinois in 2016?  (Read 529 times)
JRP1994
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« on: July 29, 2014, 05:06:14 PM »

Vote!
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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2014, 06:25:18 PM »

Against a non-Hillary Clinton Democratic nominee, Republicans could probably manage to win at least one. Against Clinton, no way.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2014, 10:11:16 PM »

Against a non-Hillary Clinton Democratic nominee, Republicans could probably manage to win at least one. Against Clinton, no way.

Obama lost McHenry County by 9 and that's his home state.

I am pretty sure the GOP will carry McHenry County in 2016.
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« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2014, 10:38:08 PM »

Against a non-Hillary Clinton Democratic nominee, Republicans could probably manage to win at least one. Against Clinton, no way.

Obama lost McHenry County by 9 and that's his home state.

I am pretty sure the GOP will carry McHenry County in 2016.

Oh yeah, I forgot about that county.

Come to think of it, I remember there being a thread like this a while back with a map showing that there was another collar county that would probably be Lean R in 2016, but I'll have to look around for that. I guess I wasn't keeping those snippets of info in mind when I made my post.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2014, 10:50:03 PM »

I made a thread about this a few weeks ago.

McHenry County and Kendall County will go Republican next cycle in most scenarios, IMO.

I think DuPage and Kane Counties are toss-ups. Obama didn't win them by much last time around.

Lake and Will Counties are long gone for the GOP unless they decide to pick up their game on key social issues.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2014, 11:04:25 AM »

DuPage, McHenry, and Kane will all probably go >50% Republican if it's a neutral election with no factors such as home state advantage, while Will County is more of a toss-up as it still has a lot of Republican exurban/rural/outer suburban areas; it could be a plurality county. Lake County will vote just slightly over 50% for the Democrat unless it's a Republican 2012 or more.

DuPage, McHenry, and Kane are all very historically Republican counties, with all going to Obama in 2008 and DuPage & Kane narrowly staying Obama in 2012 by just a few thousand votes. Will County did vote for Clinton both times, while Lake voted Clinton in 1996 (but Perot ruins our 90s election numbers), and both narrowly voted Bush both times in the 2000s. DuPage & Kane certainly would've gone for Romney if Obama wasn't from Illinois.

If Hillary is the nominee as comes close to Obama, Will and Lake will most certainly vote for her. DuPage could be a toss-up/barely R county, while the other two will vote fairly Republican unless Hillary wins in a blowout or the Republican is a truly awful fit.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2014, 11:11:38 AM »

Yes, and this wasn't a hard choice.  Unless we nominate a Palin or Cruz or Huckabee, we'll almost CERTAINLY win one, even against Hillary.  Against a generic Democrat, we'll reclaim DuPage.
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