Some Kentucky Senate Thoughts

[Whacker77]

I don't post too often, but I wanted to add a few thoughts about the Kentucky Senate race.  In the past, the path for Democrats to win statewide at the federal level was to rack up big wins in the heavily unionized eastern portions of the state, do well in Louisville/Jefferson County, and hope the rest of the state doesn't overwhelm those totals.

For a variety of reasons, that path to victory doesn't add up anymore for Democrats.  As the state has realigned at the federal level, so too have the counties in eastern Kentucky that have been traditional Democrat strongholds.  On top of that, Obama is immensely unpopular in the state and his coal regulations have likely increased the speed with which the eastern areas are realigning.

A good example of the change is to compare the 2004 and 2010 Senate races.  In 2004, Mongiardo did very well in the eastern counties and won Louisville by an astonishing 64,000 votes.  Still, he came up just short.  In 2010 though, things really changed for Conway.  Several of the border counties in the east flipped to Paul and Conway won Louisville by just 29000 votes, a drop of 25000 in just six years.  As a result, Conway, a really good candidate, was blown out.

Now, it's important to note 2010 was a "wave year" for Republicans so Conway's totals in Louisville were likely held down compared to what they would have been in a "neutral" year.  Considering that, it's almost a certainty Grimes will do better in Louisville than Conway did, but the question is by how much.  This year is certainly shaping up to be tough for Democrats all around the country.  Whether it's a "wave" or not, remains to be seen, but Louisville will be her key as best I can tell.

McConnell is likely to do very well in eastern KY thanks to coal and Obama's unpopularity.  In fact, the most recent poll done by SUSA gave him a 20 point lead on the coal issue.  That just puts even more pressure on Grimes to do exceptionally well in Louisville.  Chuck Todd recently suggested she would need at least a 50000 vote win in Louisville and I think that's doable for her, but, as he noted, that really doesn't get her past 47%.  Still, Louisville is the center of resistance to McConnell so a big turnout and she's in the game.  Unfortunately for Grimes though, there are no hotly contested local races in Louisville to help draw out traditional Democrat voters.

I've long thought this race was headed towards a McConnell 53-47 win and I'll stick with that for now.  Grimes, unfortunately for her, has proven to be rather weak on the stump (at times robotic) and even the media have begun to question why she ducks so many answers.  With the exception of a few polls, she's really not been able to crack 45% and that was something that showed up for Conway as well.  McConnell's definitely in trouble, but the state and the national mood work in his favor.

[GaussLaw]

I agree with this analysis. 

KY is just a tough one for Dems to pick up.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Grimes may have trouble getting beyond 48 percent or so, but there's a libertarian candidate in the race - if he takes enough points off McConnell's number, Grimes could eek out a narrow victory. There are two parts to Grimes's Victory - 1, she'll need to match Bruce Lunsford's 2008 numbers, and even exceed them in some parts of the state, and 2, she'll need to hope that the libertarian takes enough votes away from McConnell (there was no libertarian in 2008). It's a tough road in a typically red state, especially with McConnell's fundraising advantage, and even with Independent Ed Marksberry (who was possibly taking votes away from Grimes) out of the race, I still have this at Lean R despite the polls.

[Whacker77]

I don't believe the Libertarian is on the ballot yet, although he claims to have the signatures necessary.  There really hasn't been a history of third party candidates playing anything close to a spoiler role in Kentucky statewide races recently so I'm reluctant to believe this person will swing the race.  On top of that, many who might consider the Libertarian as a protest vote are also strong advocates of Rand Paul and he is firmly behind McConnell.  We'll just have to wait and see how that plays out.