Illinois Statewide Mega-Thread: State has first budget in over a year

[Mr. Illini]

Governor
Pat Quinn
Bruce Rauner

Lt. Governor
Paul Vallas
Evelyn Sanguinetti

Attorney General
Lisa Madigan
Paul Schimpf

Sec. of State
Jesse White
Mike Webster

Treasurer
Mike Frerichs
Tom Cross

Comptroller
Sheila Simon
Judy Baar Topinka

[NHLiberal]

Governor
Pat Quinn
Bruce Rauner
Toss-Up/Tilt R

Lt. Governor
Paul Vallas
Evelyn Sanguinetti
Toss-Up/Tilt R

Attorney General
Lisa Madigan
Paul Schimpf
Safe D

Sec. of State
Jesse White
Mike Webster
Safe D

Treasurer
Mike Frerichs
Tom Cross
Toss-Up/Tilt D

Comptroller
Sheila Simon
Judy Baar Topinka
Likely D

[Mr. Illini]

Governor
Pat Quinn
Bruce Rauner
Toss-Up/Tilt R

Lt. Governor
Paul Vallas
Evelyn Sanguinetti
Toss-Up/Tilt R

Attorney General
Lisa Madigan
Paul Schimpf
Safe D

Sec. of State
Jesse White
Mike Webster
Safe D

Treasurer
Mike Frerichs
Tom Cross
Toss-Up/Tilt D

Comptroller
Sheila Simon
Judy Baar Topinka
Likely D

Why Likely D for Comptroller? Simon's name recognition is not as good and Topinka has some sympathizers among ILDems.

[NHLiberal]

Governor
Pat Quinn
Bruce Rauner
Toss-Up/Tilt R

Lt. Governor
Paul Vallas
Evelyn Sanguinetti
Toss-Up/Tilt R

Attorney General
Lisa Madigan
Paul Schimpf
Safe D

Sec. of State
Jesse White
Mike Webster
Safe D

Treasurer
Mike Frerichs
Tom Cross
Toss-Up/Tilt D

Comptroller
Sheila Simon
Judy Baar Topinka
Likely D

Why Likely D for Comptroller? Simon's name recognition is not as good and Topinka has some sympathizers among ILDems.

My bad I didn't realize Topinka was the incumbent.

[muon2]

Governor
Pat Quinn
Bruce Rauner
Toss-Up/Tilt R

Lt. Governor
Paul Vallas
Evelyn Sanguinetti
Toss-Up/Tilt R

Attorney General
Lisa Madigan
Paul Schimpf
Safe D

Sec. of State
Jesse White
Mike Webster
Safe D

Treasurer
Mike Frerichs
Tom Cross
Toss-Up/Tilt D

Comptroller
Sheila Simon
Judy Baar Topinka
Likely D

Why Likely D for Comptroller? Simon's name recognition is not as good and Topinka has some sympathizers among ILDems.

My bad I didn't realize Topinka was the incumbent.

Topinka also has most of the big union endorsements.

Cross also has much better name ID than Frerichs, and summer polls have shown Cross ahead.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Governor
Pat Quinn
Bruce Rauner
Toss-Up/Tilt R

Lt. Governor
Paul Vallas
Evelyn Sanguinetti
Toss-Up/Tilt R

Attorney General
Lisa Madigan
Paul Schimpf
Safe D

Sec. of State
Jesse White
Mike Webster
Safe D

Treasurer
Mike Frerichs
Tom Cross
Toss-Up/Tilt D

Comptroller
Sheila Simon
Judy Baar Topinka
Likely D

Why Likely D for Comptroller? Simon's name recognition is not as good and Topinka has some sympathizers among ILDems.

My bad I didn't realize Topinka was the incumbent.

Topinka also has most of the big union endorsements.

Cross also has much better name ID than Frerichs, and summer polls have shown Cross ahead.

Frerichs should pull it out, but Topinka will probably win a good margin (by the standards of numerically possible Republican victories in IL ).

[Mr. Illini]

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http://politics.suntimes.com/article/springfield/bruce-rauner-channeled-part-fortune-cayman-islands/fri-08012014-643pm

[Vega]

Oh boy. Quinn will surely use that to it's fullest extent.

[Mr. Illini]

Rauner's self-finance tally reaches $10 million

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/chi-rauner-nears-10-million-funding-mark-20140801-story.html

[muon2]

Oh boy. Quinn will surely use that to it's fullest extent.

No doubt, but way down the Tribune article on the issue was this item.

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It's not clear if the story will have legs.

[Mr. Illini]

Rauner will release partial tax returns three weeks prior to Election Day

http://abc7chicago.com/politics/rauner-to-release-tax-info-3-weeks-before-election/226875/?ms=soc_Q4IL_FB_RNR_0807_3&utm_medium=soc&utm_source=Q4IL&utm_campaign=RNR&utm_content=0807_FB_3

[Mr. Illini]

Pat Quinn has vetoed the anti-Uber bill, something that Rauner has been campaigning on for months

http://politics.suntimes.com/article/springfield/quinn-nixes-uber-bill-says-it-would-be-disservice-consumers/mon-08252014-220pm

[muon2]

Pat Quinn has vetoed the anti-Uber bill, something that Rauner has been campaigning on for months

http://politics.suntimes.com/article/springfield/quinn-nixes-uber-bill-says-it-would-be-disservice-consumers/mon-08252014-220pm

That has to show concern in the Quinn campaign. The bill was backed by many of the interests that would naturally go to Quinn, and there was a very long drawn-out fight over the passage of this bill in the spring. The veto is clearly calculated to appease some youthful voting groups. The bill passed with veto-proof majorities including most Pubs, and though most of the no votes were Pub there were a handful of liberal Dems from Chicago who voted no as well. I actually agree with the Gov's veto message that the issue of ridesharing regulation should be negotiated in local ordinance, not set by state statute.

[Mr. Illini]

Pat Quinn has vetoed the anti-Uber bill, something that Rauner has been campaigning on for months

http://politics.suntimes.com/article/springfield/quinn-nixes-uber-bill-says-it-would-be-disservice-consumers/mon-08252014-220pm

That has to show concern in the Quinn campaign. The bill was backed by many of the interests that would naturally go to Quinn, and there was a very long drawn-out fight over the passage of this bill in the spring. The veto is clearly calculated to appease some youthful voting groups. The bill passed with veto-proof majorities including most Pubs, and though most of the no votes were Pub there were a handful of liberal Dems from Chicago who voted no as well. I actually agree with the Gov's veto message that the issue of ridesharing regulation should be negotiated in local ordinance, not set by state statute.

It should certainly be of bigger concern for the Rauner campaign. It was supposed to be his in with the youth and urban votes and he already built it up as a major issue in the campaign. Now he has to regroup.

[Miles]

I could have sworn there was something like this out previously, but reportedly new audio was released of Rauner on the minimum wage:

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[Mr. Illini]

New polling released on down-ballot races:

Attorney General
Madigan (D) 53.69%
Schimpf (R) 29.83%
Undecided 11.2%

Treasurer
Cross (R) 42.46%
Frerichs (D) 34.41
Undecided 23.03%

Comptroller
Topinka (R) 51.41%
Simon (D) 31.37%
Undecided 9.08%

Secretary of State
White (D) 61.3%
Webster (R) 26.04%
Undecided 7.27%

Credit to Reboot Illinois for all polls

Unsurprisingly commanding leads for Madigan, White, and Topinka. The Treasurer race is goin to be really close.

[Mr. Illini]

69% of Illinois voters support increasing the minimum wage and 56% support the millionaire tax

Both issues will appear on this year's ballot

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-illinois-referendum-questions-met-0916-20140916-story.html#page=1

[Gass3268]

69% of Illinois voters support increasing the minimum wage and 56% support the millionaire tax

Both issues will appear on this year's ballot

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-illinois-referendum-questions-met-0916-20140916-story.html#page=1

Most excellent!

[President Johnson]

Good news for Democrats: In the most recent poll, Quinn beats Rauner by 11 points. The incumbent governor receives 48% in this survey while Rauner only gets 37%.

[Miles]

WAA polled the row offices: (I think this was the poll where Rauner was up 3)

Treasuer
Cross (R)- 42%
Frerichs (D)- 35%

Comptroller
Topinka (R)- 55%
Simon (D)- 32%
Fox (L)- 6%

SOS
White (D)- 61%
Webster (R)- 28%
Michel (L)- 5%

AG
Madigan (D)- 53%
Schimpf (R)- 32%
Koyl (L)- 6%

[Mr. Illini]

Recent out of IL:

UIUC is inviting Quinn and Rauner to debate at the university on October 7. Quinn accepted; Rauner has declined

Neither candidate is willing to take a stance on marijuana decriminalization

New Rauner ad uses Harold Washington's criticism of Quinn against him in an attempt to sway African-Americans

[Mr. Illini]

Quinn's newest ad features strong support from Michelle Obama

http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2014/10/06/michelle-obama-pat-quinn-illinois-governor/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[muon2]

We Ask America has a calculator to forecast statewide results. They start with their most recent polling data and the 2010 turnout numbers. You can change any of the parameters to get your own forecast.

[muon2]

This seems like the right thread for election day comments on IL, so I have a few numbers on early and mail voting.

Cook county reports 242K early and 66K mail ballots compared to 170K and 49K in 2010. That's a 41% increase overall from four years ago. If the turnout is the same as four years ago early/mail voting will be about 22% of the vote.

In DuPage the early/mail voting is at a lower rate and should be about 17% of the total vote cast. Based on primary ballots the partisan breakdown of the DuPage ballots cast is 58% R, 24% D, 18% I.

[Mr. Illini]

Race for Treasurer is still too close to call, with ~1,000 votes separating the candidates. Cross has the slight lead.

Madigan, White, and Topinka all won reelection.